Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings Right on Track with Developing Young QB
Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is the most important player on the Minnesota Vikings roster. How he progresses will determine the future path of the franchise more than the progress of any other young player’s. Promisingly for the Vikings, his development is right on track as he nears the close of his first season as the starter in purple and gold.
Context and an understanding of expectations are a must in any analysis of a rookie QB.
By naming Matt Cassel the starter back in August, the Vikings essentially put a redshirt on Bridgewater. As long as Cassel remained healthy and played well, the rookie would not see the field.
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So when Cassel went down injured in Week 3, Bridgewater was rushed into duty before Minnesota had initially planned. The fear with releasing a young QB into the wild so soon is that he may struggle mightily, learn bad habits to compensate and ultimately have his development hindered by a poor first exposure to NFL defenses.
Minnesota may have actually lucked into something when Cassel went down. Though it’s true that Bridgewater was up-and-down early and was affected by a tricky offensive situation, he seems to have absorbed the early blows and rebounded as the team would have hoped.
Mike Zimmer certainly believes the sink-or-swim approach has benefited the young QB, per Master Tesfatsion of the Star Tribune:
""I really think you learn best from playing. That's what I believe, and I'm glad that he's playing." - Zimmer on Teddy Bridgewater #Vikings
— Master Tesfatsion (@MasterStrib) December 15, 2014"
Learning on the job is exactly what Bridgewater has done.
The growth in confidence he has shown since his embarrassing outings against the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills is remarkable. Rookie quarterbacks often have fragile mindsets and can lose confidence after disastrous performances, but Bridgewater responded in the best way possible.
How much has he actually learned, though? Well, his statistical totals from Weeks 9 to 15 are phenomenal for a rookie QB and stand miles above his totals from Week 1 to Week 8.
| 1-8 | 4.46 | 60.0% | 71.25 | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 9-15 | 5.89 | 66.3% | 91.75 | 2.6% | 4.6% |
*Weeks 1 to 8 include 155 pass attempts. Weeks 9 to 15 include 196 pass attempts.
Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is an inclusive quarterback stat because it accounts for efficiency in completing passes, yardage, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks and loss of yardage due to sacks. His jump of 1.43 yards per attempt is a simple, effective indicator of his improvement.
Completion percentage and passer rating have a close relationship, so the jump in both is not surprising. His efficiency in completing passes is not necessarily a product of shorter, simpler throws, though. Of his passing yards in Weeks 9 to 15, 48.3 percent have come through the air as opposed to after the catch, per Pro Football Focus premium (subscription required). In Weeks 1 to 8, the air percentage was a similar 47.4 percent.
Bridgewater’s first five games were riddled with interceptions and the inability to score touchdowns through the air. That tide has clearly shifted over his last six. Early struggles in throwing touchdowns and avoiding interceptions have mostly subsided.
Even the aspects of QB play in which Bridgewater thrived right away have been improved upon.
| 1-8 | 46.9% | 63.4% | 21.6% |
| 9-15 | 60.6% | 78.8% | 18.6% |
Growth under pressure may be more encouraging than anything else. Where he could have folded with the constant hassling and heavy hitting of opposing defensive lines, Bridgewater has instead begun to adapt. His increased spatial awareness, feel for the timing of plays and understanding of game situations has helped an offensive line that sorely needed it.
From Week 9 on, Bridgewater has the third-best accuracy percentage under pressure out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus premium. He clearly has a knack for operating in the tight confines of a pocket and has even grown in that regard.
Development has also occurred in a variety of play calls, but not necessarily because the Vikings are drilling down on one thing.
| PA | PA | No PA | No PA | |
| 1-8 | 53.1% | 48.0 | 61.8% | 77.3 |
| 9-15 | 57.9% | 75.3 | 69.8% | 98.5 |
Overall, Bridgewater has not found success with play-action passing. Having to turn his back to the defense and readjust his eyes combined with the length of time play-action passes tend to require blockers to hold up certainly impact that.
Even so, his efficiency in play-action passes and all others has grown from earlier in the season.
Growth has clearly been established with Bridgewater in 2014. It is happening somewhat rapidly, and the upward trend should instill confidence in the Vikings that Bridgewater is in fact the QB they can hitch their wagon to moving forward.
The last hurdle in contextualizing Bridgewater’s development is comparing where he stands to other rookie quarterbacks because young signal-callers typically struggle. That’s the nature of the gig.
To put numbers on Bridgewater’s rookie season, I lined up his statistics against every rookie QB with 150 or more attempts since 1998. Then to adjust for passing success of different eras, I found the differences from league average of the season in question in each of those statistics because today’s NFL is much easier on quarterbacks than it was even a year ago.
The findings show promise in the skinny-kneed QB. Let’s start by comparing him to the other 51 quarterbacks in the sample.
Numbers in the following tables represent differences from league average. A score of -4.8 in passer rating means Bridgewater's rating is 4.8 points lower than that of the entire NFL. Lower difference numbers are better for interception percentage.
| Bridgewater | -4.8 (16) | +0.8% (5) | +0.3% (23) | -1.5% (33) |
| Average | -9.8 | -4.0% | +0.6% | -1.1% |
| Bridgewater | -0.95 (25) | -0.67 (19) | -0.53 (24) | |
| Average | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.7 |
*Ranking out of 52 is in parentheses.
Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) factors touchdowns and interceptions into the yardage measure, while net yards per attempt (NY/A) factors in sacks and sack yardage.
Bridgewater’s figures come out ahead of the average rookie quarterback by every statistical measure except for touchdown percentage. Completion percentage and passer rating are clearly his forte. He is an especially efficient QB for a rookie.
Context is necessary for struggles in touchdown percentage. The Vikings have given Bridgewater little red-zone responsibility, opting to run Matt Asiata more often than not. That has deflated Bridgewater's touchdown measures a bit.
All in all though, he is clearly an above average rookie quarterback at the very lest.
Let’s go a step further and compare Bridgewater’s marks only to other first-round selections, removing late-round plugs like Ryan Lindley, who may skew the numbers.
| Bridgewater | -4.8 (9) | +0.8% (3) | +0.3% (11) | -1.5% (23) |
| Average | -10.4 | -4.3% | +0.8% | -1.0% |
| Bridgewater | -0.95 (15) | -0.67 (12) | -0.53 (16) | |
| Average | -1.1 | -1.1 | -0.7 |
*Ranking out of 32 is in parentheses.
Bridgewater still more than holds his own. His marks are well above average for first-round rookie quarterbacks in passer rating and completion percentage. Net yards per attempt begins to catch up to him, though. The sacks and sack yardage that have accumulated from such a leaky offensive line weigh him down. The touchdown issue is a bit worse yet in comparison to first-round passers.
Let’s go one more step by comparing Bridgewater to rookie quarterbacks who became successful. The group of 14 includes Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia and Peyton Manning.
| Bridgewater | -4.8 (8) | +0.8% (4) | +0.3% (7) | -1.5% (11) |
| Average | -5.5 | -2.3% | +0.7% | -0.7% |
| Bridgewater | -0.95 (11) | -0.67 (10) | -0.53 (11) | |
| Average | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
*Ranking out of 15 is in parentheses.
Bridgewater still has an above average passer rating and completion percentage. Every other measure comes close to the average for the most successful of quarterbacks as well. So not only does he grade out better than a majority of rookie quarterbacks, but he also compares favorably with some of the league's most successful passers when they were rookies.
Any way the rookie statistics are sliced, Bridgewater holds up.
Taking it one step further, praise should be heaped onto him for the way he has performed as a rookie in a difficult situation. Even though few rookies are plugged into offensive juggernauts, having to contend with a receiving corps in constant flux, a rookie running back and a brutal offensive line applies to Bridgewater more readily than it applies elsewhere.
His response to adversity in 2014 shows that he is the quarterback of the future for Minnesota and was a worthwhile investment, at least to this point.
The highs and lows of being a young QB have certainly existed. Even in a game where Bridgewater managed to complete 31 of 41 passes, he threw two terrible interceptions that cost Minnesota dearly just a few days ago. Inconsistency will continue. Young quarterbacks are inconsistent.
After you put his factor in context though, everything is on schedule to this point. Bridgewater has steadily improved in a difficult situation and grades out positively in comparison to other rookie quarterbacks—even the most successful of them.
Minnesota can hardly ask for more.
Statistics via ESPN.com unless noted otherwise.
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