NFL Playoff Scenarios 2014: Analyzing Week 16 Matchups with Highest Stakes

Week 16 is the penultimate batch of NFL action. As is the case with many events in life, the moment just before the end—or just prior to the culmination of a big decision—creates a ton of excitement.

Think about the penultimate measure or measures of music before your favorite part of a song. That's the type of buzz pro football fanbases for teams still alive in the playoff race will be feeling on game day. If they win, the excitement will only build into the 17th and final week of the 2014 season.

Toying with playoff machines and various scenarios is fun to an extent, but weighing the implications of the highest-stakes games on tap is perhaps the best way to gauge how the final postseason illustration will look.

Let's break down the biggest fixtures on the Week 16 schedule, and the potential impact they will have based on how they're projected to play out.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

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Thinking about the quarterbacks in this game, Indy's Andrew Luck and his counterpart Tony Romo, one would presume the leader of America's Team is the most liable to make a critical mistake.

You'd be wrong. These stats from ESPN show how brilliant yet inconsistent and turnover-prone Luck tends to be:

Romo has benefited from having a sensational rushing attack, led by the league's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. However, the oft-criticized signal-caller has also gutted out the year with injuries and played at as high of a level as he ever has, all the while taking good care of the football.

Only Aaron Rodgers (81.1) and Peyton Manning (80.8) have higher Total QBR marks than Romo (80.2), per ESPN.com.

One reason to shy away from Dallas in this game is that Murray may not be available in Week 16. ESPN's Ed Werder and Adam Schefter break down the potential implications:

But NFL Network's Albert Breer has an encouraging update from Monday:

In any event, this Dallas team, unlike the mediocre clubs of the recent past, just bounced back from blowing a 21-0 lead at Philadelphia—and Romo was the one who made the big plays down the stretch.

"Tremendous amount of poise," said Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett after Week 15's win over the Eagles, via ESPNDallas.com's Todd Archer. "Tremendous amount of composure. Tremendous amount of mental toughness."

All of those attributes have fueled Romo's critics in the past. Never mind that he had nary a defense or running game to support him like the complementary pieces the Cowboys have put in place in 2014.

Dallas is a more complete team than Indianapolis, and the Colts need to rely on Luck—giveaway warts and all—to throw them to a victory in AT&T Stadium.

The momentum the Cowboys have generated in defeating the Eagles can't be underestimated. Expect their powerful offensive line to push the pile no matter who's in the backfield, for Romo to have another big day and for America's Team to finally live up to the hype and rise to the occasion.

As great as Luck is, his own proneness to a big error and the one-dimensional nature of Indy's offense will be too much for the Colts to overcome.

While a loss should keep Indianapolis entrenched as the AFC's third seed, having already clinched the AFC South title, Dallas' victory should all but ensure an NFC East divisional crown. A road trip to face a current 3-11 Washington team would be all that stands in the way.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Colts 24

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Bobby Wagner's return to Seattle's defense has sparked the Seahawks to a four-game winning streak in which the unit has played at a Super Bowl-caliber level. Now coach Pete Carroll's team looks to be living up to its billing as a rare, potential repeat champion in an era of such parity.

Even though Arizona is hosting this game, first place in the NFC West—not to mention a shot at nabbing the top overall seed in the conference—is on the line.

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

And Ryan Lindley is the Cardinals' starting quarterback, he who has thrown zero touchdowns and seven interceptions in his NFL career.

Jeff Pearlman of The New York Times put forth his opinion about Arizona's unfortunate current circumstances:

No matter what renowned QB guru Bruce Arians can scheme up, the Cardinals appear doomed against a Legion of Boom secondary that will be eager to feast. That happened last time even with Drew Stanton in the lineup, as Seattle smoked Arizona by a score of 19-3 in Week 12.

The future looks bright for Seattle, while the Cardinals can at least take solace in the fact that they've already clinched a playoff berth.

With knowledge that the Seahawks have yielded an average of just under seven points per contest amid four straight victories, it's reasonable to presume the Lindley-led Cardinals will fall around that mark.

As stout of a test as Arizona's run defense and blitz-heavy tactics from defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will be, Russell Wilson remains the X-factor that will keep getting Seattle over the hump. Wilson will make enough plays with his legs, both as a ball-carrier and in extending plays to find open targets, to drive the Seahawks to the top of the division.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 6

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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Peyton Manning's meticulous attention to detail and preparation is what's made him one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Every once in a while, his attention has to divert to what lies ahead, though.

The active legend faces flack for his one Super Bowl ring. All the regular-season brilliance Manning has enjoyed is disproportionate to his postseason success, or lack thereof.

Thankfully for Broncos fans, circumstances favor their team entering Week 16 against the Bengals. Even though this game takes place on the road, Denver has a huge edge under center.

Ever seen Andy Dalton in a big game? He tends to crumble. The playoffs may as well have started for Cincinnati, considering its half-game lead in the AFC North with two to play. Check out Dalton's career postseason resume:

And some have the nerve to question Manning as a prime-time performer? This is the Monday Night Football stage, where Manning happens to have a history of lighting it up.

The Bengals are without an invaluable leader on defense in Vontaze Burfict. They're also making the jump from preparing for revenge on the division rival Cleveland Browns—facing a simplistic offense led by rookie Johnny Manziel—to gearing up for a showdown with "The Sheriff" in Manning.

W-L	Comp./Att	Yds/G	Comp. %	YPA	TD/INT	Passer Rtg
0-3	70/123	239.3	56.9	5.84	1/6	56.2

This won't be a shootout, because it simply can't be. Dalton comes up so small in big games. It's still the regular season, but as even Manning's biggest detractors acknowledge, the veteran is arguably the best regular-season QB ever.

Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald notes how Denver has zero margin for error:

There's no way Manning, owner of a 13-4 Monday-night record, lets his team lose this game, as the Broncos vie for the top AFC seed, currently held by the mighty New England Patriots.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati, this will ignite a tailspin that culminates in a Week 17 loss at Pittsburgh, missing out on the playoffs and persisting questions about longtime coach Marvin Lewis' inability to notch a postseason win.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Bengals 17