Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 15 Preview for Miami
At this time last season, the Miami Dolphins were facing a do-or-die situation at 7-6 and heading into a big game against the New England Patriots.
Miami's in the same situation this season, with only one difference: That game last season (a 24-20 Dolphins victory) was in Miami.
This season, the Dolphins have to travel to Foxborough, and the situation might be even direr.
With their 7-6 record, the Dolphins are one game out of the final wild-card playoff spot in the AFC. There are three teams ahead of them (Baltimore, San Diego and Houston), and of those teams, Miami only holds a tiebreaker over one.
This is a must-win game for Miami. A loss here and you can kiss any hope for the playoffs goodbye.
Come along as we preview this week's do-or-die Dolphins vs. Patriots matchup.
Miami Dolphins Week 14 Recap
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With three minutes left in the first half of Sunday's game, everything was looking up for the Dolphins.
They were up 10-0 and had the Baltimore Ravens pinned inside their 3-yard line.
Little did the fans know that the tides were about to turn in a massive tsunami of physicality and missed opportunities.
Baltimore would spend those three minutes driving 98 yards up the field. It started on 1st-and-10, when Miami sold out to get the safety, creating a hole up the middle for Joe Flacco to run through.
Flacco ran for 15 yards and the first down, and while selling out for the safety was the correct gamble to make—a safety would have made it a 12-0 game with Miami getting the ball back with three minutes left and a chance to take a three-touchdown lead going into halftime while getting the ball back after the half—it was also a harbinger of things to come.
The Ravens would outscore the Dolphins 28-3 after that point, winning the game thanks to a dominant pass rush and an offense that moved down the field throughout the second half like Sonic the Hedgehog on invincibility mode.
Throughout the remainder of the game, Baltimore won the important battles in the trenches, sacking Ryan Tannehill six times while only allowing Joe Flacco to be sacked once. The Ravens also ran for 183 yards and two touchdowns.
It was an agonizing second half for Miami—one it will have to put in the past this week.
News and Notes
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Cam Wake On Dolphins' Defensive Woes: We're Not A 'Bunch Of Bums'
In the last few weeks, the Dolphins defense has faced its fair share of criticism—and for good reason.
In its last three games, the unit that seemed so reliable early in the season has allowed an average of 220 rushing yards per game, 407.6 total yards per game and, most importantly, 26.6 points per game.
Be thankful one of those opponents were the Jets, who bring down the average on points per game.
This warranted criticism might have Miami's defense on edge, backpedaling to defend itself like a bad cornerback.
Defensive end Cameron Wake defended the defense when speaking with reporters, saying, “I feel like, as a whole for the time I’ve been here, we’ve been stout against the run. We had a couple of weeks where we weren’t. That doesn’t all of a sudden turn us into a bunch of bums.”
Miami is still ranked in the top 10 on defense. However, its ranking against the run has dropped from being a top-10 run defense to the 22nd-best unit against the run, which is an aspect of the game that has been a strong suit for the Dolphins in the last five years.
No, the three bad weeks don't automatically make them the dregs of the NFL on defense, but it does show an alarming trend—one that opposing offenses will not hesitate to take advantage of.
Kelvin Sheppard and Jason Trusnik Preparing To Start at Linebacker
Miami's worst nightmare would be a further weakening of its already paper-thin linebacker unit.
It's bad enough that the Dolphins lost Dannell Ellerbe earlier in the season. With that said, that loss has allowed Jelani Jenkins to come in and prosper this season.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins could find themselves without Jenkins as well as middle linebacker Koa Misi this week against the Patriots.
According to Omar Kelly of The Sun-Sentinel, Miami might have to start Kelvin Sheppard and Jason Trusnik (subscription required) alongside Philip Wheeler at linebacker, a task that Sheppard and Trusnik are preparing for this week.
Trusnik will have to play on the weak side in relief of Jenkins, giving him the responsibility of covering Rob Gronkowski. Sheppard will play up the middle.
This is a scary proposition for the Dolphins, one that could get scarier if either player were to get hurt.
If such a disaster were to occur, Miami should have Jordan Tripp at the ready.
Jared Odrick: Beef With Joe Philbin 'Squashed'
It was one of the most enduring and talked-about images from Sunday's game: Defensive tackle Jared Odrick yelling at head coach Joe Philbin on the sidelines.
"@greggrosenthal @AdamHBeasley https://t.co/T0yjRxabn6
— jj (@860finatic) December 7, 2014"
Since then, cooler heads have prevailed, with Odrick telling Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald that the beef had been "squashed":
"“It was squashed, a dead issue. I can’t tell you enough how much I enjoy being around these guys and this organization. ... We all put our bodies on the line and that takes a lot out of you emotionally, when you do it it day-in and day-out, not just on Sundays. When you do that, and put that much on the field, and you realize that you have to do it again and again and again for the same guys that are part of this program, that’s when you realize you’re doing something special. I respect and love everyone in this room.”
"
Since Joe Philbin is such a polarizing figure among fans and the media—I think I've changed my mind on him staying or going at least 10 times this season—the shoving match could look like the bubbling up of deeper locker room issues.
However, keep this in mind: The NFL locker room is still a workplace, and everyone has had issues with their boss at one point or another. This could easily just be an isolated incident.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
| Walt Aikens | Cornerback/Safety | Illness | Probable |
| Jonathan Freeny | Linebacker | Hamstring | Doubtful |
| Nate Garner | Guard | Illness | Out |
| Jelani Jenkins | Linebacker | Foot | Doubtful |
| Koa Misi | Linebacker | Hamstring/Knee | Doubtful |
| Anthony Johnson | Defensive Tackle | Ankle | Out |
| Cortland Finnegan | Cornerback | Ankle | Questionable |
| Charles Clay | Tight End | Hamstring/Knee | Questionable |
| Chris McCain | Linebacker | Ankle | Questionable |
| Jamar Taylor | Cornerback | Shoulder | Questionable |
| Dion Jordan | Defensive End | Ankle | Probable |
| Dion Sims | Tight End | Neck | Probable |
| Jimmy Wilson | Cornerback/Safety | Hamstring | Probable |
Injury report courtesy of MiamiDolphins.com as of 12/12/2014 and will be updated periodically as new information comes in.
This is one long and extensive injury list.
It includes two-thirds of Miami's linebackers, but despite that, there's still hope.
The hope comes from the fact that both Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor were limited in practice. This could be a good sign that both players will be ready for Sunday.
At least that's the hope.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Dallas Thomas vs. Rob Ninkovich
Dallas Thomas has a lot to prove this week.
His effort against the Baltimore Ravens was one of the worst non-Jonathan Martin efforts the Dolphins have seen in the last 20 years, as not only did Thomas allow four of the six sacks Baltimore recorded, but he also allowed Tannehill to be under constant pressure throughout the game.
This week, he gets Rob Ninkovich, who has recorded seven sacks thus far this season. He has also been the unsung hero of New England's defensive unit, creating constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which allows New England's secondary to blanket receivers down the field.
Thomas has to at least break even with Ninkovich in order to give Miami a fighting chance. We're not even asking him to win the battle—just break even.
Hopefully, that won't be too much for him to ask.
Samson Satele vs. Vince Wilfork
Any center vs. Vince Wilfork is an important matchup.
Wilfork is a bit slower than in years past, but he's still an integral part of New England's front, recording 15 tackles on the season and being graded out by Pro Football Focus at plus-5.1 (subscription required).
Wilfork is at his best against the run, which Miami is going to have to implement throughout the afternoon in order to have any chance at winning. Center Samson Satele will have the primary responsibility of containing Wilfork and will have to break even at worst with him.
Jarvis Landry vs. Brandon Browner
One might think I'd highlight the Darrelle Revis-Mike Wallace matchup, but I don't see Miami attempting too much deep.
That's why I'm spotlighting Jarvis Landry's matchup, as he will likely face Brandon Browner.
Since Browner came back, he has one interception in six games, but has graded out at minus-4.7 (subscription required) for the season on PFF.
Browner might be the most picked-on corner in New England, and it will be up to Landry to continue his consistent play this season.
X-Factor: Dion Jordan
Not talked about in terms of possible linebackers playing this week: Dion Jordan.
Jordan has primarily played on special teams throughout the season, with his few defensive possessions coming as a defensive end.
However, it could help the Dolphins to put him at linebacker and use his athleticism to cover Gronkowski. It was tried last season, and while it wasn't an out-of-the-park success, it was fairly even.
Prediction
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I don't like predicting Dolphins losses.
Yes, I've done so eight times. Yes, I've been wrong four of those times. However, I doubt I'll be wrong this time around.
The reason Miami will lose, even though it will be a close loss, is simple: depth. The Dolphins don't have the depth to stack up to the Patriots.
Without Jenkins or Misi, their linebacking unit is decimated, and Bill Belichick will take advantage of that fact.
Miami's run defense will also be much worse without them.
On offense, expect New England to plug up the running lanes and jam the receivers early and often. The Patriots don't blitz much, but it will be used.
I still think the Dolphins keep it close until the Patriots tack a cheap garbage-time touchdown on.
Prediction: New England 31, Miami 17.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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