Texans vs. Colts: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

Here we are. 

After starting the season 0-2, the Indianapolis Colts bounced back to take control of the AFC South and now have a chance to clinch the division title when the Houston Texans come to town on Sunday. 

The Texans have never won in Indianapolis, a fact that both parties are quite aware of. The Colts have dominated the AFC South since its inception, winning eight of the 12 possible division titles. Both franchises are acutely aware of that fact as well. 

In what is the most crucial game left on their schedule, the Colts must come out strong to ensure their ninth AFC South title and 13th consecutive home win over the Texans. The last time these two teams met, the Colts won 33-28 as T.Y. Hilton went off for 223 yards and a touchdown. 

This time around, the Colts will face a Texans team that is coming off two consecutive blowout victories over AFC South opponents. Here are a few things the Colts have to do in order to keep Houston from making it three consecutive. 

Offense: Minimize J.J. Watt's Impact

Game-planning for the Texans defense begins and ends with No. 99. Defensive end J.J. Watt is the best defender in the league and dominates his position more than any other player in the National Football League. 

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The +68.0 pass rushing grade on the year from J.J. Watt is already the highest we've ever recorded at his position (he already had highest)

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 9, 2014"

Watt has reached the point where analysts are seriously considering whether or not he should be the Most Valuable Player. Now, a defensive lineman on a 7-6 team with a defense that is middling in most metrics shouldn't be the MVP of the league, but that's not a criticism of Watt. He's a phenomenal player. 

Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows it, per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:

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He’s as good or better than anybody that’s ever played on that side of the football. I’ve seen this guy rush punts, dominate guys at the line of scrimmage, knocking them into the nickel seats. I’ve seen him go up like one of the greatest tight ends in the league. He looks like (New England tight end Rob) Gronkowski at times on the fade. 

He’s a nightmare. It’s like Scary Movie 12. He’s damn near unblockable. He’d get my vote for MVP.

"

Going up against Watt means you have to know where he is at all times. Much like All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman, you can't just avoid him completely, that makes your offense too predictable. But as an offense, you have to be very smart about picking your spots. 

Whether it's double-teams, running bootlegs away from him or using his aggression against him with running back screens, the Colts have to mitigate his effect on the game to be successful offensively.

Offense: Put Strain on the Safeties

As mentioned above, the Texans are very familiar with T.Y. Hilton. The third-year receiver has never had less than 78 receiving yards against Houston and averages over 120 yards per game. 

Of course, the Colts will be looking to find Hilton deep, as they did several times in their win earlier this year.

But the Texans will be watching Hilton closely. They haven't quite figured out how to defend him yet, but there's always a first time. Several Texans, including cornerback Kareem Jackson, free safety Kendrick Lewis and head coach Bill O'Brien spoke to the Houston Chronicle's John McClain about the speedster. 

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

A common theme? Locating Hilton prior to the snap and being physical with him at the line of scrimmage. Expect the Texans to try to play bump-and-run coverage with Hilton while rolling a safety over the top of him, much like the New England Patriots did to limit him to just three catches for 24 yards in Week 11.

The problem with that strategy is that it puts a lot of strain on the other safety, if using a two-deep scheme. The Colts can take advantage of that, as they did against the Washington Redskins in Week 13. The Redskins took Hilton "out" of the game with just 62 yards, but it opened up a lot of space for rookie Donte Moncrief (134 yards, two touchdowns) and tight end Coby Fleener (127 yards, two touchdowns).

The Texans defense isn't as bad as Washington's, but they are prone to allowing big plays. 

Houston has allowed 24 passes of 30 yards or more, the most in the league. The Colts offense has completed 27 passes that gained 30 yards or more, also the most in the league. 

Advantage: Colts.

Defense: Make Ryan Fitzpatrick Beat You

In his comments to media this week, Chuck Pagano singled out two players—the aforementioned Watt and running back Arian Foster, per RTV6's Mike Chappell:

In the October matchup, Foster had 109 rushing touchdowns and two touchdowns. For most players, that would be a big game. For Foster, against the Colts, it was just another day at the office. Foster has averaged over 95 yards a game in his six games against Indianapolis and has scored eight touchdowns. 

Sure, Ryan Fitzpatrick had six touchdown passes against the Tennessee Titans a couple weeks ago, but he is by far a preferred option to Foster. 

The Colts need to focus on stopping Foster first, making the Texans one-dimensional and forcing Fitzpatrick to go out and win the game. During the October meeting in Houston, Fitzpatrick had a chance to go on a game-winning drive but fumbled the ball and handed the Colts a win. 

Defense: Watch the Changing of the Guard

Eric Gay/Associated Press

For years, Andre Johnson has been the Texans' go-to wide receiver. 

Johnson, despite never playing with a franchise quarterback in his career, is currently 10th all time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards. He has 125 career receptions against the Colts and 1,621 receiving yards. Both marks are second only to Andre Reed. 

In the two teams' previous matchup, Johnson provided the spark the Texans needed offensively and finished with 99 yards and a touchdown. 

But that was the closest Johnson has gotten to 100 yards all season, and he's only gone over 70 yards once since that game. 

No, while Johnson has been great throughout his career, this year has been the changing of the guard in Houston. Now, it's second-year receiver DeAndre Hopkins' time. 

Hopkins is currently ninth in the league in receiving with 1,090 yards and is a big-play threat, averaging 17.0 yards per reception, the most among any of the top 10 players in receiving yards. (Coincidentally, Hilton is second at 16.6.) 

While the Texans offense still carves out a huge chunk for Johnson, who has five more receptions than Hopkins on the season, it has turned to the second-year player at an increasing rate in recent weeks. Hopkins has had at least 80 yards in five of the last seven games, and he had 238 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans a few weeks ago. 

Hopkins had a season-low one catch for 12 yards against Indianapolis in the two teams' first matchup, and the Colts can't bet on that lack of production again. Keeping Hopkins from beating them deep will keep the Texans offense limited to methodical drives, something they shouldn't be able to keep up consistently with Fitzpatrick at quarterback.