Vikings vs. Lions: Breaking Down Minnesota's Game Plan

The Minnesota Vikings will get a second crack at the Detroit Lions in Week 15, looking to make amends for their 17-3 loss in Week 6.

Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-4 in divisional games in 2014 and only has two more opportunities to get out of this situation. Its performance will need to be markedly better than it was in the previous showdown with Detroit, one of Minnesota’s most disappointing showings all season.

Let’s look at how tall the task is for the Vikings by comparing each team’s statistics courtesy of StatMilk.com and then break down the keys to a Vikings victory.

Eyes up

The previous Detroit game was a mess for Teddy Bridgewater and the entire offense. It was the last time they failed to score a touchdown in a game. In order for the offense to hum the way it did against Carolina and New York, Bridgewater must play one of his best games of the season.

With a formidable front four, Detroit will keep Bridgewater moving around the pocket consistently. A point of focus for the rookie quarterback is to keep his eyes up and give every play a chance to succeed.

Even in his efficient performance last week, he was rattled by the rush during a stretch in the third and fourth quarter. Bridgewater missed Kyle Rudolph on this third-down play when he dropped his eyes to run too soon:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The Lions defense does not hemorrhage yardage often. It is sound in coverage and up front. When Bridgewater has open receivers down the field, he cannot afford to be too affected by the rush's presence and leave yardage on the field.

Pocket movement has hardly been Bridgewater’s biggest problem as a rookie. It will be greatly tested by Detroit’s rush, however. Josh Katzenstein of The Detroit News quotes Zimmer, who lists a few ways the Vikings can help their QB against such a potent pass rush:

"

Zimmer on decreasing sacks: Moving Bridgewater in the pocket, giving him different launch angles, trying to keep defenses off balance.

— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) December 10, 2014"

Another eight-sack day like the one in October would give the Vikings no shot at keeping up this week. Bridgewater must handle his business in the pocket to aid his offensive line and keep his eyes up while doing so.

Sharp in the red zone

With an ugly interception in the first quarter of that disastrous Lions game, Bridgewater’s merits as a red-zone passer were left with a question mark.

In Detroit, he meets one of the league’s best red-zone defenses, per Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com:

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Opponents have a 75.2 passer rating in the red zone against the Lions defense this year. The league average is 99.9.

— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) December 9, 2014"

When the Vikings had a chance to take a touchdown lead late against the New York Jets, Norv Turner got cold feet with his play-calling. He ran Matt Asiata once, ran Bridgewater on a draw play and called a "pick" route for Greg Jennings coming across the formation.

In order to finish drives against such a talented defense, Turner needs to avoid dumbing it down for his QB. Bridgewater must be given options instead and trusted to make the right decisions. He has made significant strides in identifying coverage and taking care of the ball since that ugly interception to Glover Quin.

The answer is not to curl up in the fetal position for the Vikings. Turner basically did that with his play calls against New York. He will need to be more bold this week.

Slow the rush

Besides effectively running the football, which seems like a long shot for the Vikings at this point, finding ways to slow down the rush or take advantage of its effectiveness is important to keep Bridgewater off his back.

A lead draw sprung Joe Banyard for a gain of nine last week against New York. Other draw plays can have a similar effect against Detroit. Even if they fail to net big gains, a draw play helps keep opposing rushers honest by ensuring they maintain run responsibilities, while offensive linemen show pass sets.

Middle screens, shovel passes and receiver screens can have the same effect in the passing game as well, forcing the Detroit front seven to consider quick-hitting plays.

Simply sending Bridgewater out there with deep drops and downfield route combinations on a consistent basis will yield the same result from Week 6. More responsibility falls on Turner to continually pull the strings in just the right fashion. Predictability will end poorly.

Back to the well

The best way for the Vikings defense to recreate the success it had against Matthew Stafford earlier this year is to dip back into the game plan from Week 6.

With the return of Calvin Johnson, it may be meeting a different Stafford, however. The QB has thrown for over 300 yards with a QBR of over 80 in each of his last two games, both of which featured Johnson. Stafford also got to take cracks at the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two poor defenses.

Stafford’s QBR was a season-low in Week 6 at 19.1. His No. 1 receiver being out did no favors, but Zimmer and the Vikings executed a terrific plan for Stafford.

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Creating pressure is objective No. 1. When under pressure, Stafford has completed only 38.9 percent of passes in 2014, No. 25 out of 28 statistical qualifiers via Pro Football Focus premium (subscription required).

Minnesota brought blitzes on two of the first three defensive plays back in Week 6, trying to set the tone for Stafford immediately. While the Lions still drove down for a touchdown to open the game, establishing the threat of blitzes had its effect.

Stafford is a fundamentally inconsistent QB. While some strides have been made this season in that regard, forcing him to revert back to old habits in uncomfortable situations gives the Vikings a big advantage.

Detroit will try to counter with screen passes quite often, like the one Theo Riddick took for 41 yards nine weeks ago.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

So while Zimmer will vary his approach between off coverage, feigned blitzes and actual blitzes, defenders still have a job to identify screen passes and react properly. Detroit has multiple backs who can quickly make Minnesota pay for its errors.

Pressuring Stafford reaps big rewards, and the Vikings need to do it without sacrificing solidity in coverage of Detroit's running backs.

Roll coverage

Johnson is the elephant in the room. Planning to take away the 6’5”, 236-pound freak is a futile wish. Minnesota’s current personnel in the secondary should give Zimmer and his staff a clear picture of how to deal with the situation.

Lockdown CB Xavier Rhodes stays on the right side of the field. That will not change and maybe should not on very short notice.

Consistently providing help to the opposite side of the field, in aid of Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Robinson, is a must. If Johnson frequents the defense’s left side, safety help is the only thing keeping Detroit out of the end zone. Opponents have made concerted efforts to target Robinson lately and have profited.

If Detroit picks apart Rhodes with either Johnson or Golden Tate, then the metaphorical hat will be tipped. Allowing Stafford to pick apart Munnerlyn and Robinson over the top is suicide, though.

A pretty clear split has formed in the share of targets over the last two weeks for the Lions, giving Minnesota a feel for Stafford's preferences.

	Targets	Receptions	Yards
Johnson	25	19	304
Tate	14	12	139
Ebron	8	6	51
Fauria	4	3	25
Ross	2	1	31
Fuller	1	1	21
Pettigrew	1	1	2

Stafford clearly has two favorite targets in Johnson and Tate. Both will accumulate significant yardage over the course of the game, assuming their share of targets continues.

All Minnesota can do is challenge throws at the short and intermediate levels and live with the results. Daring the Lions to go after Robinson or Munnerlyn with diagnosable man coverage will only lead to more big plays through the air for opposing offenses.

Win first downs

The final key for a Vikings victory is improved first-down defense, especially against the run.

Over the last two weeks, Minnesota has allowed 4.9 yards per carry on first down. A stretch of six consecutive first-down rushes against New York saw the Vikings give up eight, 15, seven, six, seven and nine yards, respectively. The defense has done a mediocre job of setting itself up for success on second and third downs.

Against two offenses struggling to make headway through the air, the Vikings got away with it for the most part. Relying on that in Detroit would be foolish.

A laundry list of things may need to go right for the Vikings to pull off a road win on Sunday. Detroit is a better team in numerous facets of the game. At the very least, Minnesota will find out what kind of character it has playing the role of spoiler in a difficult divisional matchup, trying to learn from what went wrong the first time around. 

Statistics via ESPN.com unless noted otherwise.