Dolphins vs. Patriots: Complete Week 15 Preview for New England
While the New England Patriots' Week 4 Monday night debacle may have been their worst game of the season, the Week 1 second-half implosion against the Miami Dolphins was an equally appalling performance. As the defense conceded 23 unanswered points, Tom Brady and the offense looked as helpless as they had in years under the relentless barrage of Miami's pass rush.
That Patriots team is virtually unrecognizable from the current one that leads the league in point differential and holds the inside track to home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Following some personnel shuffling, improved health and timely midseason acquisitions, the Pats are once again in position to clinch an AFC East title, which would be their sixth straight and 11th in the past 12 seasons.
Still, even after suffering a devastating home defeat last week, Miami is an underrated squad. Advanced metrics have been high on the Dolphins all season, and at 7-6, Miami is a desperate squad that would effectively miss out on the playoffs with a loss.
Thus, New England can knock out a division rival while also atoning for one of its worst showings of the season. For a deeper look into how the Pats may accomplish that feat, read on for a full preview of New England's Week 15 matchup in Foxborough.
Patriots Week 14 Recap
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In squeezing out a 23-14 win over the San Diego Chargers, the Pats took the rare path of a fourth-quarter comeback. None of New England's previous nine victories came with the Patriots trailing entering the final frame, and just two other wins had been decided by less than two touchdowns.
Offensively, the Chargers secondary did a surprisingly excellent job of bottling up the Patriots receivers. But while San Diego stifled Brandon LaFell and contained Rob Gronkowski (by Gronk's otherworldly standards), Julian Edelman beat top corner Brandon Flowers. Edelman compiled a team-high 141 yards and beat Flowers up the seam on the decisive game-clinching touchdown.
This week, Miami figures to utilize the same pressure-heavy schemes the Chargers used so well. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Tom Brady compiled a wretched 16.7 quarterback rating on 11 pressured dropbacks, as he was visibly flustered throughout the second and third quarters. The Dolphins will need to replicate that feat, but as their Week 1 victory illustrates, they have already proved capable of getting to Brady.
Defensively, the Dolphins' man-coverage beating concepts will present an intriguing challenge. New England was largely able to stymie the bunch sets and in-breaking routes the Chargers offense loves to utilize, holding Philip Rivers to his second-lowest passing yardage output of the season. If the Pats can similarly take away Ryan Tannehill's middle-of-the-field reads and force him outside the numbers, there are no outsized targets like Malcolm Floyd to give the defense trouble this Sunday.
News and Notes
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Pats Concerned About "Hidden Yards"
Special teams often get overlooked from the casual fans, but given his background in the area, Bill Belichick has always emphasized the third phase. As the Patriots face a Miami squad that boasts one of the league's best special teams, The Boston Globe's Shalise Manza Young believes that "hidden yardage" from returns and penalties could make a sneaky difference:
"The Dolphins are fourth in the league in kickoff return yardage, and have been penalized just 64 times, second-fewest behind Jacksonville’s 61.
The Patriots, in comparison, have been flagged 105 times already this year – only three teams have been penalized more. They are on pace to shatter the team record of 114 penalties in a season, set in 1985. It’s fairly uncharacteristic of a Belichick-coached team to be near the bottom of the league in that category.
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New England has already had a whopping 23 special teams penalties this season, compared to just 13 in the entire 2013 regular season. This is not to suggest that special teams have been a liability this season, as the phase still ranks third by Football Outsiders' DVOA due to the excellence in the kicking game from Stephen Gostkowski and the fifth-best punt return game, thanks to Julian Edelman.
However, rookie Jarvis Landry's 29.8 yards-per-kick-return average ranks fourth in the league—a potential source of hidden yardage for the Fins. If the Pats continue to hemorrhage free yards with penalties, Miami has the talent to translate that into tangible changes on the scoreboard.
Browner Hit to Spur Replay Expansion?
Days after its occurrence, the Brandon Browner hit on Lardarius Green continues to draw significant attention. NFL VP of officiating Dean Blandino not only admitted that the live "helmet-to-helmet" penalty announcement was incorrect but also suggested that the call could be reviewable in the near future because of how difficult it was to judge in live speed, per NESN's Darren Hartwell:
"I would anticipate at some point, this may be reviewable. It was discussed last year and I think it will be on the agenda again this year. At full speed, it’s real tough to make these calls. But when you’re able to slow it down, you’re able to discern between contact to the head and contact to the shoulder."
Others in the NFL media have echoed Blandino's sentiment, as the call is actually an objective one with a clear right or wrong answer (i.e., there was contact to the head or not). Making the calls reviewable would be a step in the direction Bill Belichick suggested last year to make every play eligible for a coach's challenge.
So long as the current challenge limit remains in place, the rule revision would seem unlikely to slow the overall pace of the game. Borderline subjective calls (e.g., holding, illegal contact, etc.) would likely almost never come under review, especially if "indisputable evidence" remains the standard of proof. Given that the Pats recovered from the controversial call to win, the penalty may actually turn out as a long-term win for Belichick and the New England organization.
Cannon Extended
"I would assume Marcus Cannon's deal includes incentives tied to snaps/starts. $9 million/$3.2 signing bonus is big money for a backup.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyedNESN) December 12, 2014"
With the likes of Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty set to hit free agency, Pats fans may have been excited to hear news of an extension on Thursday. However, after inking backup tackle Marcus Cannon to a surprisingly rich two-year deal, many are left scratching their heads as to the Patriots' rationale.
Cannon began the year as part of the rotating door at guard but has since settled in as the reserve tackle, along with rookie Cameron Fleming. The fourth-year pro struggled early this season; in three starts, Cannon conceded two sacks, three hits and four hurries.
However, since reverting to his more natural tackle position, Cannon's 97.2 percent pass-blocking efficiency would rank tied for fifth among offensive tackles if he had enough snaps to qualify. That's in line with the excellent second half he had in 2013 replacing the injured Sebastian Vollmer, and while there is no clear path to a long-term starting job for Cannon, the choice to extend him likely represents a buy-low decision to secure a premium insurance plan at an important position.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Out |
| Dan Connolly | OG | Questionable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT | Questionable |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Questionable |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | Questionable |
| Rob Ninkovich | DE | Questionable |
| Shane Vereen | RB | Questionable |
| Chris White | LB | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
The Patriots continue to escape week after week without serious injuries. There's an element of waiting for the other shoe to drop, as happened in the 2012 postseason, when the Pats lost Rob Gronkowski, Stevan Ridley, Aqib Talib and other critical cogs.
Still, so long as the players remain healthy, New England possesses arguably the league's deepest and most well-rounded roster. Easley's knee injury looks like the greatest long-term concern, as the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe reported that the Pats were considering injured reserve for the rookie. Given that Easley has needed practice days off this season to manage the injury, shutting him down and hitting the proverbial reset button might be the best course of action to optimize his readiness for 2014.
The most pressing question will be whether or not Fleming and Hightower return after missing Week 14. Collins proved capable of handling Hightower's leadership duties in the huddle, and in Jonathan Casillas, the Pats have a reasonable second option in the event that Hightower needs another week of rest.
On the other hand, Cannon struggled last week in Fleming's role as an eligible blocking tight end, so the rookie would likely reassume his place in power packages if he does return. Against a Miami defense that has allowed the second-most yards per carry to opponents over the last month, Fleming's availability could make a key difference in the type of offensive game plan the Patriots install.
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Sebastian Vollmer vs. Cameron Wake
Quite simply, this is the matchup that most threatens New England's chances of clinching the division on Sunday. Wake was the catalyst behind Miami's Week 1 comeback, as his seven combined quarterback pressures were the most among all 4-3 defensive ends that week.
Vollmer's minus-2.5 pass-blocking grade that day was his lowest of the season and one of just two negatively graded games he has had this year. Despite being employed as part of a rotation this year, the hulking right tackle has since stabilized to post a typically steady season, as his 96.4 percent pass-blocking efficiency ranks 10th among all tackles.
It's also worth noting that Wake has cooled down recently, with just a single sack in the past month after nine through the first nine games. Additionally, the Patriots abandoned the run in Week 1, despite not falling behind by two possessions until the final five minutes of the fourth quarter, so part of stemming Wake's rush may involve forcing him to play on his heels against the run more often.
Still, Wake has been an underrated Patriots killer for years, as his 8.5 career sacks against New England are his most against any team. The sixth-year veteran will garner his share of pressures, but the Patriots cannot afford to let him create the type of game-changing plays that altered the complexion of their Week 1 meeting.
Julian Edelman vs. Brent Grimes
Edelman and Grimes are essentially equivalents of each other, as both are undersized perimeter players whose relentless grittiness allows them to play beyond their size limitations. These two promise to provide one of the most physical matchups of the game—a real treat for fans of receiver vs. cornerback play.
After a brief midseason slump, Minitron has been on a tear, despite a lingering quad injury that has showed up on the injury report since Week 11. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Edelman's 37 targets over the last three games are tied for third-most in the league in that span. Only Julio Jones and A.J. Green have outpaced Edelman in that category, while Green and Odell Beckham Jr. are the only receivers with more receptions than Edelman's 26.
However, Grimes will represent his toughest test since New England's Week 10 bye. The Dolphins' top corner has conceded more than five catches in a game just once this season, and the 63.6 passer rating opposing quarterbacks have accrued against him is the eighth-lowest of any cornerback this season.
Facing a stylistically similar player, Edelman faces arguably the toughest challenge of anyone besides Vollmer on the Patriots offense. While the volume will almost certainly go down on Sunday, Edelman must be his customarily consistent self on third downs to keep the passing game humming.
Jamie Collins vs. Lamar Miller
Collins has started to receive greater mainstream attention as he continues to blossom into one of the game's best all-around linebackers. In just his second season, Collins' plus-15.3 overall grade ranks fourth at the position, while his cumulative plus-18.0 grade since Week 9 is the second-best, behind only San Francisco's Chris Borland.
This week, Collins' versatility will receive a stiff challenge against Miller, who has proved a perfect fit for this "Eagles South" offensive scheme. The third-year back has compiled 989 yards from scrimmage, 12th-best among running backs this year, and his 5.10 yards per touch ranks ninth at the position, per PFR.
Miller was a co-starter with Knowshon Moreno last time the Pats faced Miami yet still compiled 78 yards and a touchdown. The inside zone Miami ran gave New England's front seven fits, and though the Pats have since stabilized schematically, the Dolphins' misdirection-based offense will still test the defense's discipline and run fits.
It is not Collins' sole responsibility to limit Miller, but Miami's offense does stress linebackers, forcing consistent reads and on-the-fly athleticism. If the Pats can limit Miller on the early downs, Miami's uptempo offense could suddenly snowball against it.
X-Factor: Kyle Arrington
It's unclear how the Patriots secondary plans to match up, as some have speculated that Revis may shadow the breakout rookie Landry. Though Landry is primarily a slot receiver, he does lead the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns since Week 10, per PFR.
Regardless of who Revis covers, though, Arrington will need to ensure that the Patriots sub-package pass defense does not break down. Tannehill does spread out his pass distribution fairly evenly, as eight Miami players have double-digit targets in that aforementioned time span. If Landry or Mike Wallace is blanketed, that does not mean the Dolphins passing game is hopeless.
For his part, Arrington has slipped a bit the past three weeks, allowing three of his four highest yardage totals in the past month. In fairness, he hasn't given up a touchdown, though opposing quarterbacks have completed 12 of 17 targets for 8.2 yards per attempt. The veteran had stabilized the nickel corner spot earlier this season, and with a deep Dolphins receiving corps in town, now would be a good time for Arrington to recapture his midseason form.
Prediction
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Entering Week 1, the general sentiment was that while the Dolphins would present a tough challenge, the Patriots superior talent would eventually win out. Three-and-a-half months later, it seems an eerily similar pregame consensus has formed for the rematch.
That feeling proved false back in September, of course, which should provide the Patriots all the caution they need. It's unfair to draw too direct a comparison, since New England is a vastly different squad from the team that collapsed in the late summer Florida heat. Nonetheless, despite facing long odds to make the playoffs, the Dolphins are an underrated squad that matches up well against the Patriots.
Thus, New England will need to rebound from two straight B-level efforts. Expecting the Pats to continue blowing out talented teams, as they did midseason, is not particularly realistic. Still, after a few leaks sprung up against Green Bay and San Diego, there is clear room for improvement.
That reality likely suits Bill Belichick just fine, as he has always preached the need to peak toward the end of the season. With a clear path to the top seed in view, look for New England to take an important first step by avenging its opening-week loss on Sunday.
Prediction: Patriots 29, Dolphins 19
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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