Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers have won nine of their last 10 games straight up (SU) and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over that span. But as they try to secure a division title and at least a first-round bye in the upcoming NFC playoffs, they run into what might be a stiff test this week when they shuffle off to Buffalo to take on the 7-6 Bills.

Point spread: The Packers opened as six-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.5-28.1 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers beat Atlanta Monday night, 43-37, which is the sixth time this season they've scored at least 38 points. Green Bay built a 31-7 halftime lead and then held off a Falcons rally from there.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 327 yards and three scores, Jordy Nelson continued his great campaign with eight catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns, and John Starks and Eddie Lacy ran for 75 and 73 yards, respectively.

Green Bay gave up the cover as a 13-point favorite by allowing Atlanta to score three times in the fourth quarter. At 10-3, the Packers own the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and they only trail top-seeded but fading Arizona by a tiebreaker.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills lost at Denver, 24-17, but with a backdoor cover as nine-point underdogs, they now own a 3-0 ATS winning streak. Buffalo actually outgained the Broncos, 415-306, won time of possession by a 33/27 margin and held Peyton Manning without a touchdown pass for the first time in over three seasons.

But three turnovers proved costly. For the season, the Bills only rank 22nd in total offense but fifth in total defense and eighth against the run. At 7-6, Buffalo is only a game off the pace in the battle for the second AFC Wild Card slot.

The Bills are just the kind of team that could give the Packers trouble; they're playing great defense, they can run the ball a little, and they own a plus-nine turnover margin. And that Green Bay defense is vulnerable.

Smart Pick

If this game were being played at Lambeau Field, the Packers might be favored by double digits. Instead, they're only favored by half of that. So while Buffalo has a fighting chance at the upset, the smart money here probably lies with Green Bay.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in seven of Green Bay's last nine games on the road.

• Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last six games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.