Red Sox Initial Depth Chart for the 2015 Season
The wave of Red Sox moves the past few days wasn't quite to the level of the extreme makeover the Dodgers underwent from Dec. 10-11. However, Boston's roster is still significantly different from where it stood 48 hours ago. There is likely a trade or two remaining up GM Ben Cherington's sleeve, but let's assess the current pieces John Farrell has at his disposal.
I'll tease you with a projected lineup to wet your pallet before we proceed to dive into each position in-depth.
1) Mookie Betts, CF
2) Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3) David Ortiz, DH
4) Hanley Ramirez, LF
5) Mike Napoli, 1B
6) Pablo Sandoval, 3B
7) Xander Bogaerts, SS
8) Shane Victorino, RF
9) Christian Vazquez, C
Catcher
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Starter: Christian Vazquez
Having a good defensive catcher is something fans take for granted. As good as Jason Varitek was at calling a game, managing a pitching staff and blocking balls in the dirt, he lacked Vazquez's best trait: a rocket arm. The days of Tampa Bay Rays stealing eight bases off Boston pitching are long gone. As MassLive.com notes, Vazquez gunned down 15 of 29 MLB runners who tried to steal a base on him in 2014. David Ortiz told The Boston Herald the quick respect the rookie catcher garnered.
"“He completely shuts down the running game. When I was playing first base in those games against Pittsburgh, the runners at first would say, ‘Who is this kid, he’s unbelievable.'"
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Future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez took things a step further in his praise, comparing Vazquez to six-time All-Star Yadier Molina. The questions surrounding the 24-year-old remains how well he'll be able to hit big-league pitching. Despite Vazquez batting .240 with just 1 HR during his 55-game major league stint last season, Pudge told The Boston Herald he's not worried.
"“When you can hit the ball the other way, trust me, you’re going to hit .300. I was a good inside-out hitter, and I hit the ball with authority to right-center. That’s what I see from him. That’s why I say he’s going to be a catcher that’s going to hit .300.”
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Backup: Dan Butler
David Ross was set to take over this role yet again and continue his duties of catching Jon Lester every fifth day once Boston re-signed their departed ace. Only problem is the Cubs and their $155 million deal prevented a Lester-Red Sox reunion. Now bringing back an old, personalized catcher for a starting pitcher no longer on the roster makes little sense. Dan Butler will fill the backup role for the time-being, but the 28-year-old career minor leaguer will merely be holding down the fort for this next guy.
Top Prospect: Blake Swihart
The 2011 first-round pick raked at Double-A last year, hitting .300 with 12 HR and seven steals in 92 games. However, the soon-to-be 23-year-old's late-season promotion to Triple-A proved more challenging. He hit just .261 with a .281 on-base percentage in 18 games with Pawtucket. His low walk-rate also highlights how his patience could be improved, further showing he could use a little more seasoning before making the jump to the majors. Swihart should start at Triple-A with a June call-up to Boston a very real possibility.
First Base
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Starter: Mike Napoli
You know what you get with Napoli. He's a solid defensive first baseman with a booming bat and a propensity to be unable to stay on the field. His slugging percentage over the past six years is .491 and he sports a .358 on base percentage, to boot. However, he averages just 122.17 games a season over that same time period, which makes having a reliable backup paramount. As he enters a contract season, it would behoove the once bearded wonder to rediscover his power stroke coming off a campaign where he slugged a career-low .419. Particularly with the infamous degenerative hip condition that could become an issue as he enters his mid-30's.
Backup: Allen Craig
It can't be understated what a tire fire the 2014 season was for Craig. He batted just .215 with a .279 OBP, numbers that dropped to .128 and .234, respectively, during his 29 games in a Red Sox uniform. He has his own lengthy laundry list of maladies, the most concerning of which is the constant foot/ankle injury that many blame for sapping his effectiveness at the plate. If Craig can get his lower body in order, he's shown he can mash at the major league level (.312 batting average, .500 slugging from 2011-2013). If he ends up being one of the pieces Boston deals to address starting pitching, Brock Holt and Daniel Nava become the main options to spell Napoli.
Top Prospect: Travis Shaw
The 2011 ninth-round pick will be 25 years old come Opening Day and is coming off his most impressive minor league season. Shaw hit .278 with 21 home runs in 128 games between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago, while making just three errors at 1B. He's far from the biggest upside prospect the Red Sox tout, but he appears major-league ready. His left-handed bat makes him more appealing to the right-handed heavy major league squad, and he could provide needed depth after Boston finishes their offseason wheeling and dealing.
Second Base
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Starter: Dustin Pedroia
I'm worried about the Red Sox heart and soul. Pedroia's coming off wrist surgery that follows thumb issues he battled the two prior seasons (one of which also required him to go under the knife). The 2008 MVP was a shell of himself in 2014, batting a pedestrian .278 with a career-worst .337 OBP. He hit just seven home runs and failed to be a threat on the bases the way he was in recent years, swiping a mere six bags after averaging 21 steals the previous three seasons. He's still a defensive marvel who won his fourth Gold Glove and posted the fifth best defensive rating of all MLB players, according to Fangraphs. The four-time All Star is under contract through 2021, and though the downward offensive trend can be attributed to injuries he's played through it's worth wondering if these are issues that will continue to crop up for the remainder of his career (ala Mark Teixeira).
Backup: Mookie Betts
The second baseman turned outfielder due to Pedroia being entrenched at the position wowed during his 52-game major league stint last season. We'll get to him more later, but if Pedroia's hand issues flare up Boston is fortunate to have such a high-caliber replacement option. A stark upgrade from the Nick Punto's of seasons past.
Top Prospect: Sean Coyle
The soon-to-be 23-year-old flashed his rare power-hitting potential for a middle infielder at Double-A last season. Coyle slugged 16 home runs to go along with 23 doubles in 96 games with Portland. He also showed his ability to hit for average (.295) and get on-base (.371). Given the names in front of him, it wouldn't surprise me to see Boston try and capitalize on such a promising season and include him in a trade to acquire an arm for the starting rotation. If he remains in the Red Sox system, expect to see him to split time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015.
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Shortstop
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Starter: Xander Bogaerts
After an impressive postseason showing en route to the 2013 World Series, many thought Baseball America's No. 2 prospect entering last season would come into his own in 2014. Bogaerts failed to live up to the Rookie of the Year expectations bestowed upon him, as a dreadful three-month midseason swoon undid a hot start. There's definitely room for improvement in the field, as he posted the 20th defensive rating among 22 shortstop qualifiers (per Fangraphs). A promising September (.317 average, four home runs) provides hope that he can live up to his pedigree during his second full season in the big leagues. With the depth of Boston's lineup, I expect Bogaerts to begin 2015 lower in the order to avoid putting pressure on the youngster after his elongated slump last year. Pedroia lauded the 22-year-old's 'unbelievable' ability last spring, so it's safe to say Red Sox players and fans alike expect a rebound season after Bogaerts took some rookie lumps.
Backup: Hanley Ramirez
The Red Sox reunited with their former top-flight prospect by giving him a lucrative four-year contract that includes a fifth-year vesting option. He'll move to left field full-time, but should Xander get hurt or struggle to such an extent that Boston does demote him this time around then the longtime shortstop can move back to his natural position as a stop-gap.
Top Prospect: Deven Marrero
The 24-year-old is best known for his glove work and reminds me an awful lot of Jose Iglesias, right down to the hitting concerns (.258 career average in the minors). As WEEI's Alex Speier reports, some teams wonder if Marrero can be productive enough at the dish to be an everyday player. A clear candidate to be shopped with the younger, MLB ready Bogaerts ahead of him, the fears around his bat limit his return potential unless paired with other pieces. He'll be back at Triple-A to begin 2015 looking to improve upon the .210 batting average he sported in 50 games with Pawtucket last season.
Third Base
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Starter: Pablo Sandoval
Despite buzz he could take over designated hitter duties whenever David Ortiz calls it a career, Kung Fu Panda is adamant in his desire is to remain a third baseman going forward. Sandoval says he wants to "prove" he can play the hot corner, which isn't really something he should have to do since he's posted a positive Fangraphs defensive rating in three of the past four seasons. The long-term concerns about diminished range for a man of his physique are legitimate, but the near future worries about him hurting the club with his glove are unfounded. On the offensive side of things, the Red Sox brass is preaching that fans can expect an increase in production from Sandoval given how his line-drive swing will translate to the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. But color me dubious, as the promises of Adrian Gonzalez transforming into a surefire 40 home run a year player are still fresh in my mind.
Backup: Will Middlebrooks
The story didn't go to script for the Kevin Youkilis successor. After an inspiring 2012 debut season where he hit .288 with 15 HRs in just 75 games, Red Sox fans thought they were watching their third baseman of the coming decade. In 2013, the power remained with 17 long balls in 94 games, but he was sent down to the minors as his batting average (.227) and OBP (.271) took drastic nosedives. He entered 2014 after being benched in the postseason in favor of Xander Bogaerts, but with the full-time third base job his to lose. Instead of answering the bell, the downward trend for Middlebrooks continued as the batting average (.191) and OBP (.256) dipped yet again. However, this time the power that had been his calling card also vanished, as he managed just two home runs and 10 doubles in 215 at bats. He's a trade candidate given the addition of Sandoval, but it's hard to imagine him fetching much in return. 3B/OF prospect Garin Cecchini would appear to be more appealing to trade partners.
Top Prospect: Rafael Devers
At a barely legal 18-years-old, Devers isn't expected to crack the MLB roster any time soon. He batted .322 across two levels of Rookie Ball in his first taste of professional baseball last year, including 29 extra-base hits in 70 games. With Sandoval manning third base and the aforementioned Cecchini beginning to shift to the outfield, Devers is Boston's future at the position. He should begin 2015 in A-Ball progressing to High-A Salem by the latter part of the season.
Left Field
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Starter: Hanley Ramirez
John Farrell confirmed the speculation that the Red Sox will move Ramirez from his comfort zone of shortstop into left field. Ramirez was never an Omar Vizquel-type Gold Glover at SS, but the challenge of learning a new position at the major league level will be an interesting Spring Training storyline to watch. The 31-year-old's health is a concern given the number of afflictions he's battled in recent years, but when 100 percent he can deliver 20 HR, 20 SB production. The three-time All-Star vows he's 'grown up' after past reports of his divisiveness with the Marlins, and David Ortiz plans to take the fellow Dominican 'under [his] wing.' Ramirez will be a stalwart in the middle of the lineup when he's playing, but Red Sox fans should come to grips with the fact that he's going to miss 25 games.
Backup: Daniel Nava
Many expected Nava to drop off after a career-year in 2013, and when he was batting .130 as the calendar hit June those naysayers grew louder. The undrafted Santa Clara prospect responded by hitting at a .308 clip over the season's final four months and re-established himself as an on-base machine. With the surplus of MLB outfielders the Red Sox have, it's possible Nava could be traded or see time at 1B (he began to dabble there in 2014). If he remains in Boston, he'll provide nice depth and be a reliable bat to bring off the bench.
Top Prospect: Garin Cecchini
Baseball America's 74th ranked prospect entering last season, Cecchini had a solid showing in his first Triple-A action. He didn't set the world on fire as he did across High-A and Double-A in 2013, but the 23-year-old batted .263 with a .341 OBP. Originally a third baseman, Cecchini shifted to the OF at times last season and will have to project there if he's to remain with this organization since Pablo Sandoval's now blocking 3B. His lack of power is concerning, as he only mustered seven HR and a petty .371 slugging percentage with Pawtucket. He seems like another prime trade candidate given his recent renowned prospect stature and the fact that Boston is flush with players that fill his two positions.
Center Field
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Starter: Mookie Betts
Betts' ascension wasn't instantaneous. He played on and off for the Red Sox for about a month before being sent down to Triple-A in mid-July to get everyday at-bats. Mookie against minor league pitching wasn't fair: .346 average, .431 on-base percentage, 46 extra-base hits (including 11 HR) and 33 steals in 99 games across Double-A and Triple-A. Once he returned to Boston with consistent playing time, there was no looking back. He reached base safely in 37 of his 41 games after being recalled, posting OBP's of .383 and .388 in the months of August and September.
His name was tossed about in trade rumors, but now the 22-year-old's been dubbed by manager John Farrell as the 'strongest' candidate to be Boston's leadoff hitter for the coming season. His quick hands and line-drive swing will play well in Fenway for years to come.
Backup: Rusney Castillo
Castillo fared well in his 10 MLB games this past year, batting .333 with 2 HR and 3 SB. Then again, it was a measly 36 at-bats, which triggers my inner Bill Parcells: "put away the anointing oils." I'm not saying Castillo can't or won't become a very good MLB player. I'm simply pointing out that what we know at this point is very little. Boston believed enough in the Cuban product to give him a $72.5 million contract, but it was far from a no-brainer move in baseball circles. Baseball America's Ben Badler reported in June the split among scouts about whether or not Castillo could even be an everyday MLB player.
The 27-year-old is a big part of Boston's future, but after signing a 7-year-deal that future doesn't have to begin Opening Day 2015. Badler also notes that Castillo's last full-season in Cuba in 2012-13 was a down year, as he posted a .250/.352/.342 slash line. If Boston uses the same logic they did with Betts, it's conceivable Castillo could start this upcoming season at Triple-A. It would allow him to play regularly and get back into the flow of competitive baseball.
Defensive Replacement: Jackie Bradley Jr.
What Jackie Bradley Jr. can do in the field is remarkable. I don't think I've ever been so excited to watch someone play defense. His range, instincts, glove and arm are all high caliber. Having said that, he may go down as the greatest defensive player to never win a Gold Glove. He's so miserable at the plate it's hard to envision him getting enough playing time to be considered for the awarded. He must have taken extensive hitting instructions from Carl Crawford to be chasing all those garbage pitches buried in the dirt. A .196 average and .280 slugging over 164 career MLB games show what Bradley Jr.'s future holds: a lot of late-inning replacements for Hanley Ramirez in LF.
Right Field
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Starter: Shane Victorino
The Flyin Hawaiian said in late November that he "should be the starting right fielder," and with Thursday's trade of Yoenis Cespedes it appears the Red Sox agree. After an injury-riddled 2014, the two-time All-Star will look to return to his 2013 form where he batted .294 with 15 HR and 21 SB. Fangraphs also gave him a 19.5 defensive rating in his inaugural Boston season, which was the third best among MLB outfielders. That ability will serve useful in the spacious right field of Fenway Park. Despite Cespedes' cannon of an arm, he wasn't known for taking good routs on balls and garnered league-average defensive ratings from Fangraphs each of the past two seasons.
Victorino is entering the final year of his contract and is presumably auditioning for other teams given Boston's commitment to Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo. If Betts indeed gets leadoff duty, Victorino will slot lower in the order where he'll be a good weapon to get on base and turn the lineup over.
Backup: Rusney Castillo/Allen Craig
Should the 34-year-old Victorino falter or succumb to injury again, the Castillo era could begin immediately. There are some questions about the Cuban's arm strength, which could make him a better play in CF while shifting Betts to RF in the event the Red Sox embrace the youth movement. Craig has some OF experience, but his poor defensive play and constant foot injuries make it doubtful he'll actually see time in RF. Boston has too much depth to force his hobbled body out there.
Top Prospect: Manuel Margot
The recently turned 20-year-old doesn't have any experience over High-A ball, so don't expect to see him in the majors in the near future. The speedster stole 42 bases in 115 minor league games last season, but he was gunned down 15 times so the decision making could use some work. He showed good pop with 12 HR and 25 doubles, and continued to take on a more aggressive approach as his walk rate dropped for the third straight season. He's expected to return to Salem to begin 2015 and could wind up getting a taste of Double-A pitching by season's end.
Designated Hitter
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Starter: David Ortiz
How long can Big Papi defy father time? He's 34 home runs away from 500, making it a realistic possibility he could reach that milestone this season. Despite jacking 35 out of the park last season, the 39-year-old did start to show some signs of decline. His batting average (.263) and OBP (.355) dropped to their lowest points since 2009, though both were still respectable numbers considering the rare power Ortiz provides in baseball's current age (just eight players hit 30+ HRs in 2014, down from 10 in 2013, which was down from 15 in 2012).
Ortiz gives Boston one of the few remaining left-handed sluggers and will be a staple in the middle of the order. I expect him to start out in the No. 3 hole, but if his ability begins to fade he can be shifted down as low as No. 6 given how deep the Red Sox lineup is.
Backup: Allen Craig
We discussed the former Cardinal already, and he'll see time at DH as the aging Ortiz gets more and more built-in time off. If Papi sits out 20 games or so as he did in 2014, plugging Craig in as the designated hitter will be a good way to rest his forever-ailing lower body by keeping him out of the field. If Craig is traded, re-injured or simply unable to regain his past hitting prowess, then Hanley Ramirez is the most logical DH fill-in. We've mentioned that he's never been a defensive wiz and his injury-riddled body could use days off from the rigors of playing the field.
Utility Man
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I'd be remiss to do this piece and not mention Boston's Mr. Everything: Brock Holt. He played at seven of the nine defensive positions a year ago, only failing to crack the pitcher-catcher battery. Holt was a .300 hitter over the season's first four months before an August swoon and September concussion ended his campaign. The 26-year-old ended up finishing with a .281 average and 12 steals.
There was recently Winter Meetings buzz from multiple outlets citing the Angels had interest in Holt, but MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reported Boston's asking price was too high. Los Angeles since struck a deal to acquire INF Josh Rutledge from the Rockies, all but ending their interest in the Red Sox utility man.
His career hitting numbers suggest it's doubtful Holt will be able to replicate the sort of success with the lumber he had in 2014, but his versatility will keep him a relevant and valuable piece of the team.
Rotation
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No. 1: Rick Porcello
No offense to Porcello, but he's not exactly the return on Yoenis Cespedes I was hoping for. The 26-year-old right-hander is coming off his best year to date (3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), but the 4.30 career ERA over six MLB seasons doesn't exactly scream "ace." He'll be a free agent after this season, so Boston doesn't have the luxury of having him locked up for the future. One concern would be Porcello transitioning from the cavernous Tigers home park to compact Fenway, but his road numbers were actually superior to his home stats each of the past four seasons. He has good control as he walked just 45 batters in 204.5 innings pitched, but since he relies heavily on his sinker he also doesn't miss many bats (5.67 strikeouts per 9 innings). It feels like Boston could have held out for more given the power upside Cespedes provides, but barring another move Porcello looks like the Opening Day starter in Philadelphia.
No. 2: Clay Buchholz
The Red Sox are hoping Buchholz can put his miserable 2014 season behind him and revert to the All-Star caliber starter he was in years past. Our new friends FIP and xFIP show that the now 30-year-old starter's campaign wasn't as bad as the 5.34 ERA would lead you to believe. His 2014 FIP was 4.01, his xFIP was 4.04 and he tossed a pair of complete game shutout gems (albeit vs. Tampa Bay and Houston) that leave some hope he still has No. 2 upside left in that arm. He needs better fastball command and increased velocity, as those betrayed him last season and allowed opposing hitters to sit on his devastating changeup. His health is always a question mark, but when 100% in the first half of 2013 Buchholz pitched like a Cy Young candidate (9-0, 1.71 ERA).
No. 3: Wade Miley
The 2012 All-Star has seen his ERA increase each of the past two seasons. Fangraphs' advanced stats, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), paint a better picture of the left-hander's shaky 2014 season. While his ERA ballooned to 4.34, his FIP was 3.98 while his xFIP finished at an even more respectable 3.50. The soft-thrower induces a lot of ground balls (51.1% last season) and is a bargain at $500K for the coming season. He's fresh off a year where he posted a career-best strikeout rate of 8.18, but an increase in walks accompanied the uptick in K's (78 free passes in 201.1 innings pitched). There's always concern with an NL pitcher making the move to the AL, but Miley's a reliable, middle-of-the-rotation starter who was worth the Rubby De La Rosa/Allen Webster package.
No. 4: Justin Masterson
The Red Sox did reunite with a homegrown starting pitcher this offseason, but it wasn't Jon Lester. Masterson returns to Boston hoping former pitching coach and current skipper John Farrell can fix his unorthodox mechanics, a riddle the Cardinals couldn't solve despite their best efforts. Masterson posted a 3.73 ERA in 160.1 innings under Farrell's watch from 2008-2009, and the Red Sox manager was successful in solving what ailed Lester following his porous 2012 season. Masterson does have a pair of really successful years in Cleveland to his credit before the train went off the tracks. He posted a 3.21 ERA in 2011 and earned an All-Star nod in 2013, ultimately finishing with a 3.45 ERA and career-best 195 strikeouts. But with his three-quarters delivery gone awry last season, the numbers were truly hideous: 5.88 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 71 walks and 15 hit batters in 128.2 innings of work. The sinker-baller's a reclamation project with No. 3 starter upside, but it's hard to count on the soon-to-be 30-year-old.
No. 5: Joe Kelly
After being acquired from St. Louis in the John Lackey trade in late July, Kelly did what a back-of-the-rotation starter is supposed to do: keep his team in the game. In his 10 starts with Boston, the 26-year-old had six quality starts and only one game where he allowed more than four runs. He posted a 3.08 ERA across his first two major league seasons with the Cardinals, but the advanced numbers cite some luckiness there as his FIP over that time period was 4.00. His upside is limited and his 1.36 career WHIP shows his propensity to get himself into jams, but he's a serviceable No. 4 to No. 5 starter, particularly with a team that has an upper-echelon offense.
Top Prospect: Henry Owens
The 2014 Eastern League All-Star and MLB Futures Game participant dominated Double-A batters in 2014. He went 14-4 with a 2.60 earned run average, actually raising his career ERA with Portland to 2.44 in 26 starts. His 38 innings in Triple-A weren't as impressive (4.03 ERA), but he maintained his strong strikeout rate (10.42 K's per 9 innings). He's a fastball-curveball-changeup lefty who could get a crack at the big leagues around the 2015 midseason mark once the Red Sox ensure they won't lose a year of team control on him. However, it's more likely the 22-year-old marinates at Triple-A for an entire season and becomes a Red Sox rotation staple in 2016.
Bullpen
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Closer: Koji Uehara
Uehara was his typically dominant, enthusiastically high-fiving self in the first-half of 2014. He had a 1.65 ERA, a minuscule 0.756 WHIP and converted 18 of 20 save opportunities to earn his first ever All-Star bid. But things didn't go so smoothly after the break. Uehara blew three of his 11 save opportunities and finished with a 4.35 ERA while being limited to 20.2 innings in the season's second-half. Koji attributed the struggles to simple fatigue, music to Red Sox fans' ears who feared they were tied to his history of shoulder issues following an earlier 2014 scare. Boston must be confident with the structure and stability in Uehara's shoulder since they gave him a two-year extension at the beginning of this offseason. If the drop-off was merely a case of the RHP being worn down, then perhaps putting Koji on a weekly innings count or not pitching him on back-to-back days can help avoid a similar post-All-Star break swoon from reoccurring. As for now, I'll assume Uehara and his splitter will resume their mastery of hitters in 2015.
Set-Up Man: Edward Mujica
Once he got acclimated to the American League, Mujica pitched like his 2013 All-Star self in the the second-half of 2014 (1.78 ERA, six for six on save opportunities). The soon-to-be 31-year-old has closer experience with the Cardinals, but his career 3.76 ERA leaves something to be desired for a reliever. I would trust Tazawa more in this role, but from the way John Farrell used Mujica last season the pecking order in the Boston bullpen seems pretty clear cut.
7th Inning Man: Junichi Tazawa
Since 2012, Tazawa has compiled a 2.62 ERA, 1.135 WHIP and 181 strikeouts over 175.1 innings of work. He's become one of the most reliable, innings-eating relievers in all of baseball. He won't always be used in the 7th, as Farrell has shown a willingness to go to Tazawa earlier if he's looking to get out of a jam, but he's the clear-cut No. 3 option in the Boston pen.
Specialist: Tommy Layne
With the Red Sox unable to woo Andrew Miller away from the $39 million the Yankees gave him, Layne becomes Boston's top left-handed reliever. The late-blooming 30-year-old didn't get his crack in the majors until he was 27, and has pitched just 44.1 innings in his three years of big league experience. He's fared well with a 2.03 ERA, but it would behoove the Red Sox to add a more established lefty.
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