Dolphins vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

After stampeding through the league midseason, the New England Patriots have appeared much more vulnerable the past two weeks.  Though the Pats rebounded from their first loss in two months with a 23-14 comeback victory over the San Diego Chargers, somewhat concerning issues have emerged in regard to pass protection, the running game and secondary depth.

Still, those are significant nitpicks in the grand scheme of things, especially when compared to the flaws of many other contenders.  Ultimately, the 10-3 Patriots are still in firm control for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  With a trio of AFC East teams left on the schedule, New England should be heavy favorites to win out and claim a first-round bye for the fifth consecutive season.

The previous four have ended without a Lombardi Trophy, however, which highlights the need for the Pats to peak headed into January.  Those aforementioned flaws are relatively minor, but when a team has adopted a championship-or-bust mentality, differences at the margins matter.

As the Patriots look to avenge an opening-week loss against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday, let's take a look at the national perception surrounding New England.

Kevin Seifert: Browner Penalty Impetus for Replay Expansion?

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Brandon Browner's 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Ladarius Green drew more ire than perhaps any other call from Sunday's action.  There have been differing stances on whether the live interpretation was correct, but considering that Browner led with his shoulder rather than his helmet, it's clear that he didn't violate the spirit of the tackling safety rules.

While helmet-to-helmet calls are extremely difficult to make, they are also less subjective than many penalty calls.  Because of this, ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert suggests that the controversy surrounding Browner's hit may lead to an expansion of reviewable calls under instant replay:

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In this case and many others, the NFL's understandable desire to limit head collisions puts officials at a disadvantage. They're doing what they've been told -- calling an illegal hit even if they have any doubt -- and it's difficult to expect them to do anything other than use those cues. Replay reviews might be the only long-term answer.

"

The penalty nullified a pick-six from Devin McCourty, and though Akeem Ayers would later end the drive with his own interception, the call had game-changing potential.  In some ways, proponents of expanded replay should probably be upset that the call didn't affect the game's outcome more, as the Pats rallied to make the penalty a moot point in the grander scheme.

As for Browner, the penalties are piling up at an untenable rate.  Despite playing just seven of 13 games so far, Browner leads the Pats with 12 penalties, 11 of which have been accepted.  Indeed, since he first entered the lineup in Week 7, Browner's minus-2.4 penalty grade ranks third-worst out of 103 qualified cornerbacks in that span, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

His physicality is an ideal fit in New England's scheme, but Browner's flag-happy reputation came perilously close to costing the Pats on Sunday and could come back to bite in the postseason.

Scott Kacsmar: Patriots Stifled Downfield Passing Game

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A constant penchant for conceding big passing plays plagued the woeful New England defenses of the late-aughts.  But since Bill Belichick turned to a more free agent-based approach to rebuilding the secondary, that trend has totally reversed itself.  As Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar points out, the Pats secondary may have played its best game of the year on Sunday against Philip Rivers:

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According to ESPN, Rivers was just 2-of-10 on passes thrown more than 5 yards downfield on Sunday night. That's the fewest such completions he has ever had in a game. The stat was so hard to believe I had to re-watch every Rivers throw to verify, and sure enough, it's accurate. The only two completions were spectacular catches where Malcom Floyd bailed out Rivers, who had one defensed-drop and that ugly interception on his throws beyond five yards. … That's also a credit to the coverage from Darrelle Revis and company, but again, Rivers is used to threading the needle down the field.

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By most metrics, conventional or advanced, the Pats possess a top-10 pass defense.  Football Outsiders ranks the unit ninth by DVOA, and Advanced Football Analytics has them eighth in expected points added per play (EPA).  Opposing quarterbacks are also completing just 58.7 percent of their passes against New England, the third-lowest mark in the league.

Quite simply, the most significant weakness is at nickel and dime back, which isn't typically a problem since most offenses aren't comfortable emphasizing their depth options in the game plan. 

The exceptions are teams like Denver and Green Bay, which the Pats may very well meet in the later postseason rounds.  However, when accompanied by an excellent game plan, as against San Diego, the secondary is arguably the best unit on the entire roster.

Pro Football Focus: Ayers' Best Game as a Patriot

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One of Bill Belichick's most underrated qualities is his ability to shift personnel on the fly midseason.  Meticulous offseason planning cannot account for the entropy injuries will inevitably cause during the year, but Belichick is better at adjusting to losses than most coaches.

His buy-low trade for former second-rounder Akeem Ayers is just the latest example of Belichick acquiring a low-risk, moderate-reward asset.  Ayers has been an invaluable addition in the wake of Chandler Jones' hip injury, and as Ben Stockwell illustrates in Pro Football Focus' game review, Week 14 was Ayers' best performance since arriving in Foxborough:

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Comfortably the best game of Ayers’ short career as a Patriot, adding an interception to his six pressures (one hit, five hurries) as a pass rusher, tied for his most in six games with New England. More a nuisance than a dominant presence as a pass rusher, Ayers rarely broke into the pocket but impressed with his ability to outmuscle King Dunlap late in plays with four of his six pressures coming via bullrush or to the inside of Dunlap and Chad Rinehart.

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Stockwell also went on to note that since the Patriots acquired him, Ayers has compiled the sixth-most pressures among 3-4 outside linebackers.  Indeed, according to PFF (subscription required), Ayers has compiled more pressures (27) in 209 pass-rushing snaps as Jones did (23) over 235 rushes.

Nor has there been a drop-off in run defense, as Ayers' plus-3.9 run defense grade is the highest among all the outside linebackers on the team (which would include Jones and Rob Ninkovich).  It is stunning that New England's best edge defender was a Titans cast-off, and when Jones does return, the Pats should be able to employ a more liberal three-man rotation that ensures the freshness of each player.

Ed Werder: Blount Firmly Starting RB

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Have feeling #Steelers going to regret providing #Patriots their starting running back - LeGarrette Blount

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) December 8, 2014"

Speaking of midseason acquisitions, LeGarrette Blount's return to New England has provided much-needed stability at the running back position.  Though Jonas Gray showed obvious promise with his 201-yard breakout against Indianapolis, Blount represents a known commodity who has performed at a high level in the Patriots' offensive scheme, an invaluable asset for the playoff run.

Since returning before Week 12, Blount ranks 13th in total rushing yardage and 12th in yards per attempt (minimum 30 carries, per Pro-Football-Reference).  His 3.67 yards after contact per attempt in that time span ranks second in the league, behind only Jamaal Charles, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Shane Vereen continues to lead the Patriots in snaps over the past three weeks, but Blount has been utilized on a far greater proportion of his snaps.  According to PFR, Blount's 44 touches since Week 12 is easily the highest on the team and well ahead of the 24 that Vereen has accrued.  Indeed, Vereen's carry quota has almost totally disappeared, as he has received just 13 rushing attempts over the last four games.

As such, it feels like Blount has monopolized the backfield, even if the snap count would suggest otherwise.  Just as Ayers has become the defense's most impactful edge-rusher, Blount is now a focal point on a high-powered offense, a remarkable turnaround after his marginalization in Pittsburgh.

Cian Fahey: Pressure Key to Dolphins' Upset

USA TODAY Sports

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The Patriots-Dolphins game is going to be interesting. Dolphins should get pressure on Brady.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) December 9, 2014"

Though the Kansas City loss was a 60-minute debacle from the offensive line, the second half of New England's Week 1 loss to Miami may have been the unit's worst showing of the season.  The Patriots conceded a remarkable 26 total hurries on 60 total dropbacks, per PFF (subscription required), as Tom Brady completed just seven of 21 passes while under pressure.

We'll have more on the individual matchups in Friday's game preview, but even with reshuffled starters along the line, the Patriots are facing an extraordinarily difficult challenge. 

Although a month-long drought has plagued the Dolphins line, Miami still ranks 11th in sack percentage, per TeamRankings.com.  Miami can win with a conventional four-man rush due to the talents of edge-rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, but defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle is also quite creative in his blitz disguise.

For what it's worth, Brady's pressure statistics have improved remarkably since the O-line has stabilized.  Since Week 5, Brady's 64.2 percent accuracy percentage ranks 10th among all quarterbacks.  He has also been pressured on just 25.1 percent of dropbacks and sacked just 6.5 percent of the time, the second-lowest and lowest marks in that span, respectively.

Thus, Sunday's game represents an opportunity for Brady and the line to atone for one of their worst showings of the season.  Considering that the line has also regressed a bit in pass protection the last two weeks, a bounce-back effort against the Dolphins would provide a nice confidence boost as well.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).