Raiders Show Glimpse of Future in Upset Win Over 49ers

The Oakland Raiders gave the Raider Nation a glimpse into a better future with a 24-13 upset win Sunday over the San Francisco 49ers. It also restored hope that the Raiders aren’t too far away from turning things around, which is the best gift any bad team can give their fans this time of year.

The well-timed win came a week after a painful reminder of the present—a 52-0 beatdown by the St. Louis Rams. It also wasn’t a fool’s-gold performance, because the 49ers are still a good team despite their recent struggles and internal turmoil.

Rookie quarterback Derek Carr had his best performance of the season by a wide margin against a normally tough pass defense. Carr targeted second-year tight end Mychal Rivera seven times and completed every one for a total of 109 yards and a touchdown.

The defense also clamped down on Colin Kaepernick and sacked him five times—two by rookie outside linebacker Khalil Mack. Oakland’s young secondary that includes cornerback D.J. Hayden and T.J. Carrie also played well behind the fierce pass rush.

For the first time this season, the Raiders put it together on offense and defense while resembling the team the fans were hoping they could be this season. It was just one afternoon, but it could serve as a launchpad to better days ahead.

Of course, the story of the Raiders overcoming historic futility isn’t over, and we’ve heard this story before. Just two weeks ago, the Raiders got the monkey off their back with their first win in a full calendar year and then came back the following week with their worst loss since 1961.

Still, the Raiders seem to be slowly turning things around, even if it hasn’t been as fast as everyone wanted and the leadership made mistakes along the way. For the first time in years, the Raiders have defeated two teams with winning records.

In fact, the 2011 Raiders that went 8-8 beat just one team with a winning record—the 10-6 Houston Texans the day after owner Al Davis died on an interception in the end zone with 10 players on the field. It took an inexplicable play by quarterback Matt Schaub and the ghost of Al Davis to win that game.

That just shows how much strength of schedule can contribute to a team’s record. Consider that as it stands now the Raiders have played 11 of their 13 games against opponents with records over .500. The other two were against the New York Jets Week 1 and the surging St. Louis Rams in Week 13.

The only game against a truly bad team was rookie quarterback Derek Carr’s first career start, on the road and against Rex Ryan’s defense. Week 1 is also often a weird week.

The 6-7 Rams are a lot better than their record indicates. Both the games against opponents with records below .500 were also on the road.

Obviously, the schedule has been brutal for a team that’s still a few candy canes short of a cavity, but it also sweetens the victory Sunday. A win like that over a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars just wouldn’t carry the same weight—even if the 49ers weren’t regional rivals.

Stat	Value	NFL Rank	Raiders
Comp %	59.1%	5T	78.6%
Yards Per Game	211.2	4	254
TD%	5.1%	25	10.7%
INT%	3.7%	3	0%
Sack %	5.9%	20	0%*
AY/A	6.0	5T	11.21

Carr’s performance was particularly noteworthy. We’ve been hearing all season how Carr was the quarterback of the future, but the evidence was spotty at best. Carr’s statistics and tape all suggested that he was struggling until Sunday.

The 49ers have a very good pass defense, and Carr tore it up. Even after Carr passed for 254 yards and three touchdowns, the 49ers are fourth in passing yardage allowed, fifth in completion percentage and third in interception percentage.

Carr finished in the top four in adjusted yards per pass attempt this week, but the three quarterbacks ahead of him played much softer pass defenses and only had two touchdowns. Carr was third in ESPN’s Total QBR this week and the best quarterback of a team that won their game.

The key to Carr’s performance was threefold. The offensive line did a great job giving Carr time to go through his reads and he used that time, Rivera and fullback Marcel Reece were more involved in the passing game and the 49ers had to respect running back Latavius Murray.

Stat	Week 14 Value	Weekly Rank	Career High
PFR ANY/A	11.21	4	Yes
ESPN Total QBR	91.2	3	Yes
Pass EPA (via ESPN)	9.0	1	Yes
PFF QB Rating	115.11	1	Yes
QB Rating	140.2	1	Yes

Although Murray rushed 23 times for just 76 yards, he still had an impact on the game. Murray’s 16-yard carry on the Raiders' final drive gave them a new set of downs to kill more clock, and he also had a run of 15 yards at the end of the first quarter. By comparison, Darren McFadden’s long on the season is 17 yards, and Maurice Jones-Drew’s long is 13 yards.

One of the first things interim head coach Tony Sparano mentioned about Carr’s passing performance wasn’t Rivera, it was how the 49ers loaded the box to stop Murray.

“We had a lot of people down there in the box today, and they didn’t want us to run the ball,” Sparano said after the game, via Raiders.com. “They obviously wanted to see whether or not we could beat them throwing the football and Derek was able to do that.”

One of the big reasons Carr was so successful was that he had a ton of time to throw. Carr was able to sit in the pocket and go through all of his progressions. Even when the 49ers got pressure on him, it wasn’t multiple players breaking through so he could use his athleticism to get away from it.

The offensive line did such a good job, Carr offered to take them to dinner, which was probably the worst decision he made all day. A dozen hungry 300-plus pound men can probably put down some food.

“I told them I was like, ‘Wherever we have to go to dinner. You guys deserve so much.’ I’m a little worried about that one, but, I think my wife is more worried than I am especially with Christmas around the corner.” Carr explained after the game via Raiders.com. “I kept telling them during the game, ‘Guys, I’m literally just standing back here. This is awesome. You’re doing a great job, please keep it up.’”

Carr had just six incomplete passes because of all his time in the pocket. He went through reads and didn’t miss receivers when they were open. Carr was a perfect 14-of-14 when throwing to Rivera or Reece, and it didn’t much matter who was covering them, as the 49ers gave five different players an opportunity to cover each of them.

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Drops
Mychal Rivera	7	7	109	1	0
Marcel Reece	7	7	64	1	0
Andre Holmes	4	2	38	0	0
James Jones	2	2	11	0	0
Latavius Murray	2	2	9	0	0
Vincent Brown	1	1	20	0	0
Brice Butler/Kenbrell Thompkins	3	0	0	0	1
Donald Penn	1	1	3	1	0

The Raiders had no such issue in coverage for a change. Last week’s debacle aside, Oakland’s defense has proved capable in recent weeks of playing well. In two of the last four games, the Raiders have allowed only one touchdown and just two in the other game.

The defense has been hit-and-miss with five games with 20 or fewer points allowed and six games with 30 or more points allowed this season. The NFL average is 23 points per game.

Mack continues to impress, but other players, like pass-rusher Benson Mayowa and linebacker Sio Moore, are starting to contribute on a more consistent basis. Even the veteran players general manager Reggie McKenzie hoped would make an on-field impact are doing so.

“Collective effort,” veteran defensive end Justin Tuck cited as the reason the Raiders were able to get so much pressure on Kaepernick via Raiders.com. “We feel as though our front four can play with the best of them in those (3rd-and-long) situations, so for us it always starts with stopping the run and getting them in those 3rd-and-long situations and pinning our ears back. We were able to do that today.”

Now the Raiders have to move on to their next challenge, a tough road game in Kansas City. If they play anything like they did last Sunday, they’ll have a shot to win.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).