Pittsburgh Steelers' Biggest Obstacles for Deep Playoff Run
With three games to go, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in control of the AFC North and are poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
That is a stark contrast from the outlook just one week ago. At the time, it seemed as though the Steelers would have to battle their way into a wild-card spot. An embarrassing loss to the New Orleans Saints put the Steelers in 10th place in the AFC, and the playoffs became a major question mark.
However, a win over the Cincinnati Bengals changed all of that. Not only did they win, but they won in impressive fashion.
Pittsburgh’s quick-strike offense outscored Cincinnati 25-0 in the fourth quarter en route to a 42-21 victory. The win left the Steelers in fifth place in the AFC standings and tied for second place in the AFC North. Most importantly, they are now in position to win the division if they are able to win their final three games.
As the confidence builds in Pittsburgh, we all have to remind ourselves that we have seen this story before. Every time the Steelers have the look of a title contender, they fall back to earth. For the second time this season, they are in the midst of a streak of at least five games of alternating wins and losses every other week.
The inconsistent play is one of the biggest obstacles that the Steelers must overcome to make a run at the playoffs. But what is it that makes the Steelers inconsistent? Here is a look at five issues—from least to most concerning—that the Steelers must avoid to have success in the postseason.
Wear and Tear for Le’Veon Bell
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Le’Veon Bell transformed himself this offseason and looked like a brand-new running back when I observed him in training camp. Little did anyone know that this transformation would help turn Bell into the most dynamic running back in the entire league.
Through 13 games, Bell ranks second in yards (1,231) and third in carries (242). In addition to his work on the ground, his 71 receptions are tied for 16th. The 313 touches mean a lot of wear and tear for Bell, and that is not even counting what he contributes as a blocker.
Bell’s workload has only heated up in recent weeks with 35, 29 and 32 touches over the past three games respectively. Those numbers will not decrease, as he is the only proven running back on the roster. Despite the pounding he will take over the final three games, Mike Tomlin is not concerned.
"Tomlin: Not overly concerned about number of Bell's carries. "He has the pedigree for it.''
— Ed Bouchette (@EdBouchette) December 2, 2014
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While his quarterback recognizes Bell’s talent, Ben Roethlisberger told 93.7 The Fan that the Steelers must be cautious in their approach with Bell (h/t ProFootballTalk):
"I don’t know of a running back since I’ve been here that has been able to basically play every single snap. I think that speaks volumes for his conditioning and the work that he has put in. But you do have to be careful. I hope we don’t run him into the ground, if you will. It’s that stretch of the year where everyone is going to give it everything they have and I know he probably wants to be in there every single play because that’s the kind of player he is.
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As good as it would be for the Steelers to give Bell a rest, they may not be able to afford it. Not only is he playing at a team-MVP level, but he should be in the talk for league MVP—or at least Offensive Player of the Year—if he can maintain this level of production.
Bell is at risk of slowing down as he continues to carry the bulk of the load, but as long as he continues to avoid unnecessary hits and dish out the punishment himself, he should continue to excel as the Steelers make a push for the playoffs and beyond.
Pass Protection by the Offensive Line
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Roethlisberger playing under pressure is nothing new. He ranks eighth in NFL with 31 sacks against, and that number will only grow as the season concludes.
Between 2011 and the start of the 2014 season, Roethlisberger led the league in completion percentage, yards and touchdowns when under pressure, according to ESPN Stats & Information (h/t Scott Brown of ESPN.com). Despite his relative comfort level while under pressure, it is not an ideal situation to be under.
Against the Saints, Roethlisberger faced pressure early in the game that got him out of rhythm, and he was never able to recover. Despite only being sacked once, he only completed 55.2 percent of his passes and injured his hand.
An injury would be devastating at this point of the season, but getting Roethlisberger off his game is damaging as well.
When he has a clean pocket, Roethlisberger is as dangerous as any quarterback in the NFL. We all had the opportunity to witness this in his two-game stretch in which he threw for 12 touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers can get by with Roethlisberger moving around the pocket and extending the play, but that is not when they are at their best. Give him time to throw, and they can score with any team in the league. If they don’t the offense will be limited and will struggle to sustain drives and put points on the scoreboard.
Lack of Turnovers by the Defense
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The Steelers have three of the best offensive weapons in all of football with Roethlisberger, Bell and Antonio Brown. The same cannot be said for the defense.
Cameron Heyward leads the team with 5.0 sacks followed by Jason Worilds with 4.5. Cortez Allen—who Tomlin benched earlier this season—leads the team with 11 passes defended, while Allen and William Gay are tied for the team lead with two interceptions.
The lack of playmakers has hurt the defense in terms of creating turnovers.
The lack of pressure on the quarterback is a major contributor to this. Quarterbacks are able to sit back and pick the defense apart. The 24 sacks that the Steelers have this year rank 24th in the NFL.
Without pressuring the quarterback, the defense is allowing opposing offenses to dictate the tempo of the game. As a result, the Steelers have failed to produce turnovers. They only have eight interceptions and eight fumble recoveries.
Julian Ryan of Harvard Sports Analysis Collective wrote, “turnovers matter in deciding a single game of football,” specifically that a positive turnover ratio results in a 69.9 winning percentage. The Steelers support this claim.
The Steelers are 5-0 when they have a positive turnover differential, 1-3 when it is negative and 2-2 when they are even.
There is a clear correlation to splash plays by the defense and winning football. With the lack of playmakers on this side of the ball, the Steelers will struggle to generate big plays and force their offense to play a near-perfect game to avoid losing the turnover battle.
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Inconsistent Production from No. 2 and 3 Wide Receivers
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Ask any defensive coordinator in the league and he will start to sweat when he has to address how to stop the combination of Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown. But what happens when one does?
Too often the Steelers are shut down on offense when their three superstars aren’t producing. That is because they do not get consistent production from their No. 2 and 3 receivers.
Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant must contribute for Pittsburgh’s offense to produce. Their presence helps ease the pressure on the other weapons and makes the offense much tougher for opponents to defend.
Wheaton has 43 receptions for 534 yards and two touchdowns this year but is not a significant part of the offense. Any production from him should be considered a bonus. That was the case against the Colts and Ravens, when Wheaton scored his only touchdowns of the season—one in each of Roethlisberger’s six touchdown performances.
The real key is Martavis Bryant. He showed again last week why defenses must focus their attention on him. With the game still in doubt, the Steelers ran a play-action pass, and Bryant’s pure speed easily beat the defensive back for a 94-yard touchdown—the longest touchdown reception in the NFL this season.
Since entering the lineup in Week 7, the Steelers are 4-1 and average 35.8 points per game when Bryant scores a touchdown. During these games, they outscore their opponents by an average of six points per game. They are only 1-1 when he is held out of the end zone and are even in scoring with their opponents with 29.5 points per game.
While the offense can still put up the points when the secondary receiving options aren’t producing, the Steelers play at their highest level when Roethlisberger can spread the ball around the field. This would make them nearly impossible to defend and let them compete with any team in the league.
Inability to Prevent Big Plays by Secondary
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For years, it was the offense that limited the Steelers. Their dominate defense would carry them through the regular season but was not enough to carry them to a deep run in the playoffs. Now the two sides of the ball have flipped.
A defense that once physically dominated opponents now struggles to make a big stop when the team needs it. The 24.5 points allowed per game are easily the most since Dick LeBeau returned to the Steelers in 2004. Big plays allowed are a major part of this issue.
The Steelers continue to allow big plays at an alarming rate, including an 81-yard touchdown reception by A.J. Green last week. It was just one of 46 passes for 20 yards or more allowed by the defense, with 14 going for 40 yards or more.
"#Steelers defense has allowed TD passes of 67, 80, 69, 81 yards in the past four games. And now 13 pass plays of 40+ yards this season.
— Ryan Recker (@RyanRecker) December 7, 2014
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The problem isn’t exclusive to the passing game either. Opponents have rushed for 20 yards or more 10 times this season, including a 20-yard touchdown run by Andy Dalton on Sunday. These are the types of plays that not only will deflate the defense, but the entire team.
Just as a big play from the offense or a turnover by the defense can change the momentum of the game and build confidence, allowing a quick strike for a score is equally as deflating.
Despite being in control of their playoff fate, the Steelers have little room for error over their final three games. Even though there are no elite quarterbacks left on their schedule, we have seen this defense surrender long passes to even the worst quarterbacks in the league.
The defensive backfield must clamp down and prevent the deep ball if the Steelers are going to make a run not only at a playoff appearance, but a deep run if they do get there.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com, and all roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
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