Oregon Football: Are Ducks the Real Underdogs Despite the Spread?

Based on statistics alone, the second-ranked Oregon Ducks should be favored over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, and they are. However, based on history, tradition and experience, the Ducks should be considered as underdogs in the College Football Playoff. 

It’s a role that the Ducks should relish, not shun.

The Ducks and Seminoles will face off in the 2014 Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 in a game that features the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, and the likely 2014 Heisman recipient, Marcus Mariota.

On paper, Oregon is the better team. Not only have the Ducks been destroying opponents over their last eight games by an average margin of victory of over 26 points, but also they’ve been doing it against some of the better teams in the country.

Moreover, the Ducks are statistically better than the Seminoles nearly across the board. Oregon leads the Seminoles in points per game, passing yards, rushing yards, total yards, yards per play, sacks, strength of schedule, turnover margin and a host of other categories.

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Not only do the statistics favor Oregon, Vegas and analytics do as well.

According to Odds Shark, the Ducks are currently favored by 9.5 points over the Seminoles. Ed Feng’s analytics website, The Power Rank, predicts that the Ducks will beat the Seminoles by 10.8 points at a neutral site and that Florida State has a 22 percent chance at victory.

Feng’s analytics also reveal that the Ducks should be ranked No. 1, as they are expected to have the largest margin of victory against an average team (27.91) in the nation.

To further this point, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) also ranks the Ducks as the No. 1 team in the country, slightly ahead of Alabama. According to the FPI, Oregon’s 35.1 percent chance to win the national title is the best among the final four teams.

So then why are the Ducks the underdogs in the College Football Playoff?

Well, the reasoning mostly comes from the fact that the other three programs in the CFP—Alabama, Ohio State and Florida State—have been to the pinnacle before and have coaches who’ve won national championships. In fact, those programs have each won a national championship within the past 12 years.

Furthermore, the other three head coaches in the CFP—Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer—have combined to win six of the past eight national titles.

Florida State, Alabama and Ohio State are three of the best football programs in the history of college football and have combined to win a grand total of 25 national championships.

While the Ducks have come a long way over the past decade, in part due to the influence and money of Nike and founder Phil Knight, they’re still on the outside looking in, and they’re doing it with a coach, Mark Helfrich, who is only in his second year at the helm.

We’re talking about an Oregon program that didn’t make it to a Rose Bowl from 1958 until 1994 and didn’t win a Rose Bowl from 1916 until the 2011 season. We’re talking about a team whose all-time winning percentage of 56.9 percent is ranked No. 46 in college football history.

Until 2007, Oregon’s overall record was 559-447-46, good for a winning percentage of 55.5. Since 2007, former head coach Chip Kelly’s first season (as offensive coordinator), the Ducks are 88-17, which is an 83.8 winning percentage.

The tide has turned quickly for the Ducks, and the program is now considered one of the finest in the nation. However, they’ve still yet to win a national championship, something that they’re reminded of every time they come close.

Oregon had an opportunity to win a national title in 2010 when it faced Auburn in the BCS National Championship. They lost on a last-second field goal, 22-19. It had a chance in 2012, only to have that opportunity evade them due a late-season loss to Stanford in Eugene.

The Ducks are creeping toward another shot at the title here in 2014 and with two more wins, will finally secure a spot as a true college football powerhouse. However, in order to get there, they’re going to have to take down the powers that be.

Perhaps it’s appropriate that in order for the Ducks to finally win a title that they’re going to have to do it by knocking off members of the college football hierarchy.

They’ll move one step closer to their goal of becoming a national power on Dec. 13 when quarterback Marcus Mariota likely raises the first Heisman Trophy in school history.

However, for now, without a national title under their belts, Oregon is still an outsider.

The Ducks are the underdogs. It’s a role they should cherish.

Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.