Re-Grading the Biggest NBA Contract Extensions of the 2014 Offseason
The 2014 NBA offseason was a fairly generous one for the 2011 draft class.
Not every member of that group collected a contract extension this past summer, but those who did were rewarded quite well for both their production and their potential going forward.
It will take years to assess how well this money was spent. Some will prove their salaries to be far below their actual market values. Others will struggle to ever perform up to their pay grades.
Already, we have seen some early indications of which teams made better decisions than others. Each of the offseason's biggest contract extensions has been graded here for the way the players' statistics match up to their salaries, how well they have meshed with their teammates and hints they have left about their ongoing development.
As a bonus, we have also looked at a handful of players who didn't ink an extension this past summer and what their early season performances have said about their upcoming ventures into free agency.
The Notable Names Who Were Not Extended
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Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
When Jimmy Butler rejected the Chicago Bulls' final contract offer, the swingman explained, "It came down to me deciding that I want to bet on myself," according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Butler trusted his talents would open a path to a more lucrative deal.
And it looks like the greatest gamble of the summer. The 25-year-old is set to post new career marks in points (21.7), rebounds (5.6), assists (3.4), true shooting percentage (60.2) and player efficiency rating (21.3). His offensive production seems to grow by the day, and his defense remains as tenacious as ever.
The 2014-15 season's first Eastern Conference Player of the Month is poised to collect major money on the open market. Look for him to seek something near the $16-17 million range, and if his play holds up, expect at least one team to be willing to pay that price.
Reggie Jackson, PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Reggie Jackson and the Oklahoma City Thunder might have decided they wanted more time to see just how much they need one another.
Jackson has voiced his desire to secure a starting spot, something that will never be easy with Russell Westbrook in his path. Thunder general manager Sam Presti has publicly praised Jackson, but the Thunder may have a cap on what they're willing to invest in a reserve.
Pressed into an expanded role at the start of the season by Westbrook's broken hand, Jackson has put up personal bests in points (17.9) and assists (6.8). But his field-goal (41.4) and three-point (24.3) percentages leave plenty to be desired, and his 16.8 PER hovers just above average.
If Jackson is still hoping for a starting gig, he may need to leave Oklahoma City to find it. And he shouldn't have a shortage of avenues leading him out. Wojnarowski speculated Jackson's "offer-sheet possibilities are climbing into the $13-14 million range."
Brandon Knight, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
Brandon Knight remains an unproven commodity. There are obvious NBA skills packed into his 6'3", 189-pound frame, but they have typically seemed better suited for a player who isn't tasked with sharing the basketball.
Knight can score with relative ease. He's on pace to average more than 17 points (and more than 19 points per 36 minutes) for the second consecutive season. He's also posting career shooting marks across the board with a .447/.402/.907 slash line.
But his 5.8 assists average is the highest of his career. Unfortunately, so is his 18.0 turnover percentage.
With the Bucks establishing an identity built around their long, disruptive defense, they might value Knight's offensive abilities more than most. Unless some team blows up his market, Knight should hope for an annual salary near $12 million.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
There shouldn't be much excitement for Kawhi Leonard's upcoming journey into restricted free agency.
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich dubbed Leonard the future face of the franchise in 2012, and Leonard only solidified that position by taking home NBA Finals MVP honors in June. The soft-spoken two-way star has also pledged his allegiance to the Alamo City, telling USA Today's Sam Amick recently, "I'm pretty sure I'll be in a Spurs jersey for my whole life."
The ending to this story might already be known (Leonard's signing a long-term deal with the Spurs next summer), but the details could still add a bit of suspense. The Spurs don't often break the bank, and Leonard, who has been slowed by the lingering effects of a preseason eye infection, hasn't exactly lit the stat sheet on fire with 14.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.8 steals.
Neither side seems to want a change, but it will be interesting to see how that mutual interest impacts the bottom line. If I'm in Leonard's camp, I'm eyeing a five-year, $90 million max deal.
Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
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Contract: Four years, $48 million
2014-15 Production: 14.3 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG, .360/.268/.769 shooting, 14.9 PER
The Charlotte Hornets have something in Kemba Walker, but it's hard to say exactly what it is.
At his best, Walker can be an explosive scorer, a capable creator and a confident closer. But he's not an efficient shooter, nor a consistent distributor. And while he's supplied a few daggers, his 34.2 field-goal percentage in the clutch—the final five minutes of a five-point game—ranks 22nd out of the 33 players who have attempted at least 15 such shots.
Walker is still one of Charlotte's more reliable offensive weapons, which partly helps to explain the Hornets' disappointing 5-15 start. Even by his volume-shooting standards, he has had a tough time hitting his mark.
"This season, we've seen a huge dip in what Kemba is able to do," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper. "... Walker is shooting just 26.8 percent from three-point range, and there isn't really an area of the floor in which you feel comfortable with him taking a shot."
He needs to produce offensively, because he isn't getting his 35.1 minutes a night for his defensive play. Opposing point guards have enjoyed a 19.3 PER against him so far, per 82games.com.
The Hornets have a hard enough time attracting talent; they cannot afford to let what they have go. So they'll often overspend to keep their guys around.
That's the only reason Walker's extension isn't graded any worse than it is. Between his own rough start and that of his team, there hasn't been much to justify his new deal.
Grade: C
Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets
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Contract: Four years, $50 million
2014-15 Production: 11.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 0.5 BPG, 51.2 FG%, 67.2 FT%, 16.4 PER
There is a glaring disconnect between the two lines listed above. Whatever Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried has done this season, it hasn't been close to what one would expect from a player who secured that type of contract.
And he knows it.
"I just haven't been playing my game," he told reporters in late November. "I know it. My teammates know it. My coaches know it. ... For me, [this season has been] awful."
While Bledsoe has struggled to progress from last season, Faried has faced an even more troubling obstacle: regression. Even worse, no one could have seen this coming.
Faried ended the 2013-14 campaign on an unbelievablly high note. Over the final 25 games of the season, he averaged 19.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. Then he followed up that performance by thriving in a starring role for Team USA at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup.
The stage seemed set for a breakthrough, but Faried has since headed in the opposite direction. Everything is down from last season, including his now-slightly-above-average efficiency rating.
It's too early to say the Nuggets are feeling buyer's remorse, but they would be feeling a lot better about this deal if they could help uncage the Manimal.
Grade: C-
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
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Contract: Four years, $53 million
2014-15 Production: 18.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 BPG, 50.7 FG%, 78.1 FT%, 20.2 PER
The Orlando Magic could have one of the NBA's best bargains on their hands in the form of Nikola Vucevic's contract.
Size almost always comes at a premium, but this could be an exception to the rule. The former USC standout has a plenty of it (7'0", 260 pounds) and at 24 years of age, time is still on his side.
Vucevic isn't cheap but could still be an absolute steal. He does so many things well on the offensive end, where he's comfortable drifting out to the mid-range and deadly under the basket.
"There's not a whole lot that he can't do from the center position," Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, per Magic.com's John Denton. "He's shooting the ball great, and he's a good passer. And obviously he's a very efficient post-up player."
Vucevic is averaging more points than Kevin Love, more rebounds than Anthony Davis and shooting a better percentage from the field than Marc Gasol. And next season, Vucevic will cost as much ($11.25 million, per HoopsHype) as JaVale McGee will make this year.
In other words, this is money very well spent by Orlando.
Grade: A-
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Contract: Four years, $55 million
2014-15 Production: 9.4 PPG, 10.0 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG, .426/.250/.600 shooting, 16.0 PER
Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio had all of five games to prove himself worthy of his shiny new contract before an injury threw his 2014-15 season completely off track.
His last appearance came on November 7, the night he suffered a severe ankle sprain. His next outing, according to Wolves coach Flip Saunders via ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson, won't come before January.
So it's really hard to grade Rubio's extension with anything other than an incomplete. The sample size just doesn't support buying his career-high field-goal percentage or personal-worst perimeter mark.
But the games continued to provide evidence of how uniquely talented he is.
To appreciate his stat sheet, consider that only nine players in NBA history have ever averaged at least 10 points, 10 assists and five rebounds over a full season. Floor generals like Rubio simply do not come around often.
Based on what we have seen before, Rubio seems like the perfect fit to lead this young Timberwolves roster. His creativity and fast-break execution should both do wonders for the athletes on this team.
However, more time is needed before those things become anything more than educated guesses. He still needs to prove the on-court chemistry looks as good as it does on paper.
Grade: Incomplete
Eric Bledsoe, PG, Phoenix Suns
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Contract: Five years, $70 million
2014-15 Production: 15.8 PPG, 5.7 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, .447/.355/.826 shooting, 18.3 PER
Grading the return on the Phoenix Suns' investment in Eric Bledsoe isn't easy without knowing what drove the franchise to make a deal.
If the Suns wanted a healthy version of the player they saw last season, they have to be thrilled by what they have seen. He is producing at nearly an identical rate when factoring in the small loss of quantity that resulted from Isaiah Thomas' offseason arrival.
But if Phoenix had hoped to see some growth, it could be left wanting in that regard.
Bledsoe still looks like the same player. His three-point shot (35.5 percent) sits right around average. Decision-making remains an issue (3.6 turnovers per 36 minutes). And the most impressive thing about his game is still his top-shelf athleticism.
Maybe he's destined to improve once the Suns get a better grasp on their three-headed monster at point guard. Bledsoe turns 25 this month, so it would be foolish to suggest he's done developing.
But for now, he seems like a good player being paid like a very-good-to-great one. The Suns didn't waste their money, but they don't appear to have a steal, either.
Grade: B
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
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Contract: Four years, $70 million
2014-15 Production: 21.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, .446/.448/.863 shooting, 20.4 PER
When the Golden State Warriors had the chance to deal for perennial All-Star Kevin Love this past offseason, defense is what led them to keep Klay Thompson out of the discussion, USA Today's Sam Amick reported.
The Warriors, winners of a franchise-record 12 consecutive games, have sprinted out to a league-best 17-2 start. They also have the NBA's most-efficient defense, allowing only 95.1 points per 100 possessions.
Those are not mutually exclusive statements. Golden State might have a potent, entertaining offense, but it has fashioned itself as a full-fledged contender at the opposite end of the floor.
That might seem like a justification for keeping Thompson, and in some respects, it probably is. But the sharpshooter's tremendous offensive growth is what really makes this a valuable contract.
Thompson has never scored this many points, shot this well from the field or three, grabbed this many rebounds or tossed out this many assists. He's also spending more time near the basket (31.9 percent of his field-goal attempts have come from within 10 feet) and at the foul line (24.5 percent free-throw rate) than ever before.
The Warriors look like the NBA's top team, for now at least. They are at their best when Thompson is on the floor (plus-24.9 net rating) and at their worst when he isn't (minus-11.1).
His offensive growth may have as much to do with the team's success as any other factor.
Grade: A
Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Contract: Five years, $90 million
2014-15 Production: 22.0 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, .489/.422/.830, 23.1 PER
Entering this season, 22-year-old Kyrie Irving's resume already included two All-Star appearances, one All-Star Game MVP and an MVP from the FIBA World Cup. It was all more than enough to help him get a maximum commitment from the Cleveland Cavaliers as soon as they were able to give it to him.
Irving had established himself as a ranking member of the NBA's elite class. As such, there was no obligation for him to adapt even when the Cavs' roster hit the fantasy realm thanks to LeBron James' return and Kevin Love's arrival.
Irving started this season playing his game, dominating the offensive end with some of the league's tightest handles and the ability to score from anywhere. But his ball-stopping attacks were counterproductive, leaving James underused and Love overlooked.
So he's largely abandoned his old style of late. He has ceded offensive control over to James, thriving as an off-ball contributor with James on the floor and taking over when the King sits. As a result, the Cavs are riding a season-high six-game winning streak, a stretch during which Irving has shot an incredible 55.6 percent from the field.
Oh, and Irving has started playing some defense now, too. "At the end of the day, I just have to do it for the greater good of our team," Irving told reporters. "In order for our team to win, I have to be that kind of guy on the defensive end."
Efficient on offense and active on defense, Irving is showing what happens when a superstar matures.
Grade: A
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
