Declining Drew Brees Can Still Lead Saints, but Future Plans Cannot Be Ignored

Father Time catches up with everyone. With the new year looming, the New Orleans Saints have to wonder about the long-term viability of Drew Brees as the team's starting quarterback. 

At 35 years old with his 36th birthday coming next month, Brees' time is running short, and it has reflected in his play this season. 

Sunday's performance against the Carolina Panthers epitomized the Saints' season and Brees' inconsistency. 

First and foremost, the Saints came out flat at home in the Superdome while first place in the NFC South was on the line. A 41-10 loss in that situation with Brees leading the team is almost unheard of during the Saints' recent history.

According to NOLA.com's Jeff Duncan, it's been seven years since the Saints last lost a contest by the same margin: 

Brees' overall performance doesn't appear to be awful just by looking at the final box score. He still completed 29 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown. 

But a closer look at the breakdown of those numbers is far more discouraging. 

By the end of the third quarter, the Panthers led 38-3. When the Saints needed their quarterback to step up earlier in the contest, he was 11-of-24 passing for 64 yards and an interception. 

Only 27 percent of Brees' overall production didn't come during garbage time. This isn't the level of play needed from a future Hall of Fame quarterback for the Saints to be successful this season. 

Brees' reliability this season hasn't been on the same level everyone has come to expect. He's having more trouble carrying those around him. 

The quarterback has been forced to throw the ball 40 or more times in nine contests this season. The Saints lost eight of them, and the only win came in overtime against the 2-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Sean Payton's offense has always been a passing offense. In the previous three seasons—excluding the 2012 campaign when Payton was suspended due to the bounty scandal—the Saints were 17-8 when Brees threw the ball 40 or more times.

Since Brees' historic 2011 campaign, his stats have decreased each of the next three seasons. 

Season	Completion %	Passing Yards	YPA	Touchdowns	Interceptions
2011	71.2	5,476	8.34	46	14
2012	63.0	5,177	7.73	43	19
2013	68.6	5,162	7.94	39	12
2014*	69.3	4,902	7.40	35	15

The most concerning number in Brees' decline is yards per attempt.

At 7.40 yards per attempt this season, Brees falls into the middle of the pack. He isn't just behind the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. Names such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer are also higher on the list. 

It would be the first time Brees didn't finish among the top 10 in this specific category since the 2010 season. 

There have been questions all season about dwindling arm strength, despite being ranked as Pro Football Focus' (subscription required) second-best downfield passer. 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport brought Brees' arm strength and future with the organization into question prior to the Saints' 35-32 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers two weekends ago:

Brees threw five touchdown passes during the contest, but Rapoport's claim isn't without merit. 

The 14-year veteran sometimes attempts throws that allow these types of comments to be made. For example, Brees couldn't connect with a streaking Joe Morgan in the first quarter of Sunday's contest as the Saints trailed 10-0. The poorly-thrown pass resulted in an interception. Carolina scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive. 

As seen below, Morgan clearly had a step or two on Panthers rookie cornerback Bene Benwikere when Brees floated the pass: 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

It's not a particularly deep throw down the middle of the field for an NFL quarterback. The play started at the Saints' 20-yard line. Brees was able to step into the pass before he uncorked it, yet the ball was thrown short only 35 yards downfield. 

The result was an interception, as seen below: 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Morgan was forced to break his stride and slow down because of the poorly-placed throw. Carolina safety Robert Lester was afforded enough time to drop back and nearly made a play on the ball but just missed it with his outstretched hand. And Benwikere closed the gap between himself and Morgan to undercut the throw for the turnover.

Brees has never had a cannon for an arm. He's always won with uncanny anticipation and deadly accuracy. But he's also had a little gunslinger in him. When there are questions about potential physical limitations, these other traits aren't as important if he can't place the ball where he wants it.

There is no question that Brees has still made some tremendous throws this season. He's even made some great deep throws. But he's challenged the deep part of the field less this season on average than all but two quarterbacks—Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Blake Bortles and the Baltimore Ravens' Joe Flacco—according to Pro Football Focus.  

Make no mistake. A down season for Brees is still better than 80 percent of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. After all, Brees is still third in passing yardage this season and any team that doesn't have Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson would likely take him in a heartbeat over their current options. 

However, there has to be long-term concerns for the Saints due to Brees' age, stature, slightly declining play and the team's inability to execute or win at the same level the franchise has grown accustomed to during his tenure behind center. 

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Drafting a quarterback this season should definitely be an option. The last time the Saints spent a draft pick on a young signal-caller was 2010, when the franchise used a seventh-round pick to select Oregon State's Sean Canfield. He lasted two years with the Saints and never saw a meaningful snap as a professional. 

In the entire history of the Saints organization, the franchise has selected a quarterback in the first three rounds only once. It's been 43 years since Archie Manning was the face of the franchise. 

It's time for the Saints to finally invest in the quarterback position beyond Brees. 

Even if Brees still has a couple good, albeit declining, seasons in him, the Saints have to consider their future as they allow one of the game's greats to finish his career. It's actually a perfect time to start the transition. 

Brees has two years remaining on his contract, and the team can then move on with a new quarterback. 

The organization doesn't need to invest a first- or even second-round pick into the position. A talented prospect selected in the mid-rounds that can be mentored by Brees for the next couple of seasons should be a priority, though. 

Targets such as Baylor's Bryce Petty, East Carolina's Shane Carden, Colorado State's Garrett Grayson and Oregon State's Sean Mannion are all mid-round options worthy of consideration. 

But there are still three more games to be played this season with the 5-8 Saints tied atop the NFC South. 

The Saints control their destiny with a game Sunday against the Chicago Bears before facing divisional opponents—the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—to complete the season. Brees doesn't have to play out of his mind to win any of those contests. The Bears and Falcons are two of the three worst pass defenses is in the NFL, while the Buccaneers aren't much better at 24th overall. 

Brees' career is slowly coming to a close. The Saints can plan for their future now without pushing him to the side. The team expects to make a playoff push this season though, and Brees is still good enough to lead the Saints to a division crown. However, Brees' time as an elite NFL quarterback is coming to an end sooner rather than later. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFC South for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.