Projecting Which NBA Teams Will Have Biggest Win Increases During 2014-15 Season
Turnover is as much a staple in the NBA as it is in your local bakery.
The best teams don't always stay at the top of the standings year after year, and each new season ushers in a group of vastly improved teams. In 2013-14, it was the Phoenix Suns who shocked the world and morphed from a lottery-bound flounderer into a legitimate playoff threat, one that only missed out on the No. 8 seed, thanks to the fruitless outings of the schedule's final portion.
The Charlotte Bobcats deserve to be high-fived as well, though you probably want to avoid giving them such physical signs of encouragement now that they're the Hornets.
But who will improve the most in 2014-15?
We already have some idea of what level teams will play at throughout the year, thanks to the first quarter of the campaign. So that was used as a basis for comparison, prorating teams' win-loss records to see how many victories they'd finish the current season with at their current pace.
The Warriors obviously aren't going 73-9, for example, but we're showing that prorated record to make the meaning of their current win-loss mark increasingly clear.
Then, the teams' number of wins in 2013-14 were subtracted out to see how much improvement each squad was set to show.
The results of that simple calculation can be seen for each featured team, but they were by no means the only basis for these rankings. After all, some teams are going to improve upon their current pace, while others will fail to keep up their torrid level of play.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 5's games.
10. New Orleans Pelicans
1 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 34-48
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 8-9
Prorated Total Record: 39-43
Prorated Win Difference: Five
Led by a superhuman basketball destroyer sent from the future to wreck the modern competition, the New Orleans Pelicans have actually been pretty competitive in the Western Conference this season. Following a loss to the blazing Golden State Warriors, they dropped one game below .500, but they're still within striking distance of one of the eight coveted playoff spots.
And it's a spot they should remain in all year.
Last season, the Pelicans dealt with one injury after another, and there was absolutely no continuity in the lineup. The five-man combination of Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis couldn't even spend 50 minutes together throughout the entire season.
But even with a few injuries already popping up in 2014-15, the Pelicans are largely healthier, and they're playing much better basketball.
As this team continues to improve throughout the year—and the signing of Dante Cunningham should help shore up the small forward position—it will push above .500 and exceed last season's win total by more than five games. This team failing to break into the 40s would be absolutely shocking—health pending.
9. Dallas Mavericks
2 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 49-33
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 15-5
Prorated Total Record: 62-20
Prorated Win Difference: 13
The Dallas Mavericks are on pace to win a remarkable 62 games in the brutally difficult Western Conference, and it appears sustainable for last year's No. 8 seed. All the new additions have worked rather nicely under Rick Carlisle, Monta Ellis has figured out how to maximize his talents to an even greater extent and Dirk Nowitzki still refuses to be subject to the laws of Father Time.
Though the team has actually hovered around the middle of the pack on the defensive end after a poor start to the season, it's still all about offense.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Dallas is scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions, a mark that trails only the Toronto Raptors thus far. That's a jaw-droppingly high number, and given the league-average offensive rating of 106, it's one that should stand out historically as well.
In fact, Dallas' ORtng+ of 108.87 would actually leave the team with the No. 2 mark of all time in that category, behind only the 2003-04 Mavs.
And yet, it somehow feels sustainable.
This team is a flat-out machine with a diverse array of shot-making threats. So long as the Mavericks keep a clean bill of health, there's no reason to expect them to do anything other than ride their offense past the 60-win barrier.
8. Sacramento Kings
3 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 28-54
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 9-9
Prorated Total Record: 41-41
Prorated Win Difference: 13
While the Sacramento Kings have cooled off a bit since getting off to a scorching start, they're still right at .500 after playing their first 18 games of the 2014-15 campaign. For a franchise that hasn't finished with a winning record since Brad Miller led the squad in 2005-06, that's quite significant.
Well, there's a new sheriff in the paint, and as ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton explains (subscription required), DeMarcus Cousins has been a godsend for the Kings:
"Cousins seems to have 'gotten it' on the defensive end. The Kings' improvement from 23rd to 18th in defensive rating understates Cousins' leap.
Per NBA.com/Stats, Sacramento is allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions with Cousins on the floor -- which ties him for fourth in the league -- as compared to 113.0 with him on the bench. That's enough to make Cousins one of the league's most valuable players.
"
Since Pelton penned that on the first day of December, Sacramento has fallen back a bit on the defensive end, but the offense has been a top-10 unit in the Association. For a team that just needs to hover around .500 and make some sort of effort at a postseason berth, that's a deadly enough combination, especially because there's so much improving young talent on this roster.
Will the Kings end up in the playoffs? Probably not, but that doesn't mean a 28-win team from last year can't experience a big jump all the same.
7. Toronto Raptors
4 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 48-34
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 15-4
Prorated Total Record: 65-17
Prorated Win Difference: 17
Losing DeMar DeRozan is going to hurt.
With Greivis Vasquez stepping up to the challenge of a larger role in the rotation, Lou Williams continuing to scorch nets and Kyle Lowry flat-out dominating, to the extent that he's asserted himself as an early MVP candidate, the Toronto Raptors have surged to the top of the Eastern Conference in spite of the shooting guard's absence.
They've even surpassed the Dallas Mavericks as the league's best offense, thriving in the team-based system that tries so hard to involve everyone.
"I think I'm comfortable playing on this team overall," Vasquez told the Toronto Star's Doug Smith after finding himself in this new, more important role. "I like everybody, and we play good together; playing next to Kyle [Lowry] and T Ross [Terrence Ross] I've had a lot of good nights."
But is the squad's success sustainable?
"The Raptors will likely push Lowry to his physical limits," posits Rob Mahoney for Sports Illustrated. "Already he looks exhausted in spots, worn down by driving headlong into the defense without the respite of DeRozan's shot creation. Vasquez and Lou Williams are able to spell Lowry some, but Toronto's star point guard is playing big minutes and carrying a heavy burden."
Though the Raptors should continue to function as one of the league's best teams—hence still projecting them to dramatically exceed last year's 48 wins, even if that 17-win difference is too optimistic—there's bound to be a little regression.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
5 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 50-32
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 15-3
Prorated Total Record: 68-14
Prorated Win Difference: 18
The 50-32 record from the 2013-14 campaign is a bit misleading.
After all, the Memphis Grizzlies aren't the same team when Marc Gasol is wearing street clothes, and he missed a sizable slice of the season recovering from a knee injury. When he returned to the lineup on Jan. 14 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the team began its run up the Western Conference standings, going 33-13 for the rest of the year.
That's a 59-win pace, which means this year's team is really only improving by about nine wins, should they keep up the current pace.
And they're not going to.
That's not a knock on the Grizzlies, who are as legit as can be, given their improved offense and ever-suffocating defense. It's just a reality, as a 68-win season is just about impossible. In all of NBA history, only five teams—the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72), 1996-67 Bulls (69), 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers (69), 1972-73 Boston Celtics (68) and 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers (68)—have ever won that many games.
But even if the Grizzlies fall back to earth and win "just" 62 wins, that would still be a 12-victory improvement from one season to the next. And if you look at only the portion of the season that occurred after Gasol returned, it would really be more like a three-win jump, which is by no means unrealistic even when already operating at such a high level.
5. Washington Wizards
6 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 44-38
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 12-5
Prorated Total Record: 58-24
Prorated Win Difference: 14
The Washington Wizards have been on a nice little tear since re-incorporating Bradley Beal into the starting lineup. This is still John Wall's team, and he's close to asserting himself as a top-10 player in the league, but the shooting guard adds yet another dimension to the offense.
With Beal on the floor, the Wizards have scored 109.9 points per 100 possessions, via Basketball-Reference.com, and they've also given up just 100.4 over the same span. But when he sits or wears street clothes, those numbers become less impressive, changing to 104.7 and 103.8, respectively.
Those are big differences, and it's a good indication that the Wizards are either going to sustain their early pace or perhaps manage to improve on it now that Beal is fully back. As it stands, the squad is gearing up for a run at 58 wins, but breaking into the 60s seems a distinct possibility, especially in the weak Eastern Conference.
So now, you're looking at a team that won 44 games (four less than the Toronto Raptors) in 2013-14 and is shooting for the No. 1 seed in the East. And that's a realistic goal. How's that for improvement from one year to the next?
4. Golden State Warriors
7 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 51-31
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 16-2
Prorated Total Record: 73-9
Prorated Win Difference: 22
The Golden State Warriors have won 11 games in a row, and that's pushed their record to a flat-out-ridiculous 16-2. Prorate that to 82 games, and you have the Dubs going a mind-numbing 73-9, beating out Michael Jordan's 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and setting the all-time record for wins in a season.
Does anyone actually expect that? I hope not.
Nonetheless, the Warriors have looked like the best team in basketball, boasting the league's top defensive rating and the No. 7 offensive rating behind the heroic exploits of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Neither is playing at an unsustainable level, but the losses are eventually going to start coming with a bit more frequency all the same.
They have to, especially when the schedule gets tougher.
Not to shine any negative light on an 11-game stretch of unbeaten play, but the only wins that have come against teams currently slated to make the playoffs were against the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat, neither of whom are particularly impressive and both of whom play in the East. Seriously, that's it.
In order to improve by more wins than the Wizards will, the Warriors will likely have to win 65 games, and that seems quite possible. After all, they'd "only" have to go 49-15 from hereon out, which is the equivalent of operating at a 63-win pace.
That shouldn't be too much to ask from the team playing better than any of the Association's other 29 squads.
3. Atlanta Hawks
8 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 38-44
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 11-6
Prorated Total Record: 53-29
Prorated Win Difference: 15
Before Al Horford went down with a torn pectoral, he suffered in a double-overtime victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Atlanta Hawks were poised to earn the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference during the 2013-14 season. Granted, that wasn't too much to write home about, but the team was at least on pace to go 45-37.
Let's just imagine that Horford had never injured himself. Atlanta keeps rolling against easy opponents and finishes with exactly 45 wins. All of a sudden, this current team wouldn't look all that much better, as it's only on pace to emerge from the 2014-15 campaign with 53 victories, and that would be an eight-win improvement, hardly meriting the No. 3 spot.
But that's not the case.
It's easier for Atlanta to improve drastically because it was a better team than last year's record would indicate, though their 38-44 is still serving as a benchmark. And to earn this No. 3 spot in these rankings, which could take a 16- or 17-win improvement, the Hawks need only to outscore the opposition 55 times.
The current pace actually seems to sell the Hawks a bit short, as this team is jelling under Mike Budenholzer and features an offense that's quite difficult to stop. Even if Kyle Korver, resident shooting god, sees his scorching percentages regress a bit, there are so many pieces in place, and the team looks more comfortable than ever playing with one another.
In fact, the Hawks deserve to be considered a dark-horse squad in the race for the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference, especially now that the Toronto Raptors are dealing with the major injury to DeMar DeRozan. They could very well reach 60 victories and end up making at run at the most improved squad in the league, though that seems to be a bit too optimistic.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
9 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 33-49
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 10-7
Prorated Total Record: 48-34
Prorated Win Difference: 15
Adding Kevin Love and LeBron James tends to improve a team quite dramatically.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were an absolute mess in 2013-14, a breeding ground for dysfunction and shattered dreams. Kyrie Irving didn't have too much help, and he was not playing at the level he's currently performing at now that some of the defensive attention he constantly received has been shepherded elsewhere.
But now, that mess is making it possible that the Cavs could end up with the league's biggest increase in victories, though they'd likely have to push past 60 in order to do that. It's certainly doable, especially with the team trending in the right direction, but the rough start and the still-struggling defense could throw major wrenches in those plans.
Cleveland is currently on pace to win 48 games, and the team is quite obviously going to exceed that total by a significant margin. Even 53, which would give it a 20-victory improvement, seems like a lock, based on the burgeoning chemistry it's put on display during is current five-contest stretch of unbeaten play.
There's no doubt Cleveland will finish at least No. 2 in these rankings once we're looking back on 2014-15 and not just making educated predictions. After all, the aforementioned increase would give the Atlanta Hawks a 58-14 record, the Golden State Warriors a 71-win season and the Washington Wizards a 66-victory campaign.
Only Atlanta's record seems feasible in that hypothetical, and a 20-win improvement seems to be somewhat of a lower bound for a Cavs team on pace to go 48-34 even after a dishearteningly—but not surprisingly—slow start.
It's the No. 1 spot that's more intriguing for Cleveland.
1. Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 10
2013-14 Win-Loss Record: 15-67
2014-15 Win-Loss Record: 10-10
Prorated Total Record: 41-41
Prorated Win Difference: 26
At this point, it seems safe to assume that the Milwaukee Bucks are for real. This is a team that was supposed to be a fringe playoff competitor in 2013-14 before injuries took their toll and depressed the squad's hopes, and the roster has improved rather significantly now that everyone is back and improving.
Plus, no player seems to be working at an unsustainable level—even Brandon Knight, who has broken out as a legitimate high-caliber starting point guard. Quite the contrary, as the roster is imbued with young players who should only get better as they gain experience and comfort.
On top of that, the Bucks have a clear-cut identity. Jason Kidd must be preaching defense ad nauseam, as they've allowed just 104.3 points per 100 possessions, the No. 9 mark in the NBA. So long as that level of defense is sustained, there aren't many reasons to expect the team to do anything but hover around .500...or to do even better.
Finishing with a 41-41 record would be a 26-win improvement, and that's almost untouchable. The same-sized leap from the Cleveland Cavaliers would lead to a 59-23 campaign, and they're the only team that has a realistic shot at getting to 26. Even the Atlanta Hawks, who rank No. 3 in this countdown, would need to compile 64 victories in order to get to the mark, and that ain't happening.
Milwaukee, unless it finishes well above .500, isn't a lock to claim this season's biggest turnaround. Cleveland can still overtake it, but it won't be easy.
For now, the Bucks are the heavy favorites. It's the first time that can be said about this franchise—in any category—for quite some time.
