Colts vs Browns: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

After taking care of two softballs over the last two weeks, the Indianapolis Colts are once again set to face an AFC playoff contender. 

No disrespect to teams in Washington or Jacksonville, but when you get to host two of the league's six worst teams in back-to-back home games, you have to take advantage. The Colts did just that, winning both games by 20-plus points despite slow, turnover-laden starts. 

But now the Colts have to accomplish a feat they have yet to achieve this year: win a game on the road against a team with a winning record. Granted, the team has only had two chances to do that this season—at Denver and Pittsburgh—but the point isn't to knock the Colts, simply acknowledge that the Browns are a real challenge. 

So how can the Colts ensure that they keep pace with the other AFC powers in the race for playoff positioning? That's what we look at in today's game plan. 

Offense: #FeedMoncrief

Against the Redskins on Sunday, the Colts got another breakout game from rookie wide receiver Donte Moncrief. Unlike Moncrief's breakout against the Steelers in Week 8, this was both in a win and without significant injuries to anybody in Indianapolis' receiver corp. 

It seems that the rookie has overtaken Hakeem Nicks on the Colts' depth chart, having outsnapped him, 28-17, on Sunday, per Pro Football Focus (subscription needed).

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Moncrief is like gasoline for the Colts' fire. Indianapolis can be—and has been—successful without him on the field, but everything is a bit more exciting and dangerous when he is playing. Against the Redskins on Sunday, Moncrief was on the field for all five 30-plus-yard plays. 

With the charting help of Ben Gundy of Colts Academy, I calculated the Colts as gaining an average of 13.8 yards per play with Moncrief on the field (27 plays, not including an end-of-half kneel down), while the team averaged just 5.5 yards per play without him (22 plays). 

When Moncrief plays, good things happen. Against a Cleveland defense that can be stingy at times, the Colts will need all of their available weapons. If Joe Haden is matched up with Reggie Wayne or T.Y. Hilton, the Colts need to use Moncrief and Coby Fleener to exploit other areas for big plays. 

Offense: Find a Way to Run

This isn't a new plead. 

I love the Colts' passing offense, and it will be the thing that carries the team through a playoff run—if one does occur. But in order to be most effective, any good passing offense has a rushing counterpart. It doesn't need to be the main course, more of a side dish to at least tempt the defense into crowding the line.

The Colts were able to muster some semblance of a rushing attack on Sunday. Well, that is to say, Boom Herron was able to muster a rushing game. Though he did fumble once, Herron ran for 88 yards on just eight carries, including an electrifying 49-yard touchdown scamper. 

I said last week that Herron should be the starter, and after Sunday's performance, it seems most of the Indianapolis media agrees. He's a quick back with good vision and explosion. If the Colts continue to ramp up his touches, the offense will benefit (as long as he holds on to the ball). 

But even Trent Richardson may be able to find some success against the Browns. Cleveland is just 28th in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA and has made backs like Alfred Blue, Denard Robinson, Lorenzo Taliaferro and Bobby Rainey look like superstars. Richardson actually produced against a similarly ranked Cincinnati defense (32nd-ranked rush defense) in Week 7, rushing for 77 yards on 14 carries.

With extra motivation going back home, both Richardson and Herron could find success this week. Granted, doing so against Cleveland wouldn't necessarily be a sign of better days ahead (particularly for Richardson), but it would certainly be a start.

Defense: Be Prepared for Johnny Football

Cleveland coach Mike Pettine announced Wednesday that the Browns would be starting Brian Hoyer on Sunday instead of the unpredictable Johnny Manziel, as was first reported by Jay Glazer of Fox Sports.

Despite Hoyer's abysmal November, Pettine is going with the quarterback who has more game and practice reps.

For the Colts, that could be a benefit. The team has struggled with unpredictable scramblers in the past, such as Terrelle Pryor in Week 1 of last season. But just because he won't be starting doesn't mean the Colts won't see Johnny Football. The team knows this. 

The thing about Manziel is that he brings an unpredictability that's very difficult to plan for, especially with so little NFL game film on him. The Colts haven't really played anybody like him this year, although they did play Pryor, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick last season.

Last week, Manziel ran for a touchdown after correctly reading the defense in man coverage. Manziel has been adept at this since college, and it could be in play if he comes into the game on Sunday. 

The Colts love to go into man coverage, as it's the strength of their cornerbacks. If the linebackers turn their backs to follow Jordan Cameron up the field, Manziel could do some damage. It's no guarantee that he sees the field, but if he does, the Colts can't let him kick-start the offense.

Defense: Pressure with Four

For now, we'll operate under the assumption that Brian Hoyer will play the vast majority of the game for Cleveland. That, of course, is terrifying for the Browns based on the last month. 

Opponent	Comp. %	TD	INT	Y/A	Passer Rating
Houston	40.0%	1	1	6.6	61.3
Atlanta	57.5%	0	3	8.1	52.3
Buffalo	60.0%	0	2	6.4	51.0

Hoyer has struggled tremendously with both accuracy and decision making, and his chemistry with returning receiver Josh Gordon has been a work in progress.

While the Colts have blitzed heavily throughout the season, the team needs to try to figure out a way to get pressure on Hoyer with just four pass-rushers. Per Pro Football Focus, Hoyer's passer rating, TD-INT ratio and PFF grade all improve when blitzed, and if the Colts are missing cornerback Vontae Davis, Gordon could pose a real threat.

If the Colts are forced to send a safety or linebacker in a blitz, it could open up the extra space in which the Browns are dangerous (tight end, deep-threat wide receiver).