Bowl Projections 2014: Updated Playoff Rankings and Final Predictions

Whether you agree with the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings or not, it can't be said that they don't provide plenty of drama heading into this weekend's slate of games. 

While most teams ended the regular season last weekend, nine of the top 11 teams according to the selection committee will be in action on Friday or Saturday. When the clock strikes midnight on December 6, the final rankings should become clear. 

If this weekend turns into one of those where crazy things happen, it's not inconceivable that there will be an entirely different top four when the final rankings come out on Sunday afternoon. It's not likely, though it's still fun to think about. 

Taking a more practical approach to the current rankings and matchups this weekend, here are the predictions for the College Football Playoff games following championship weekend. 

College Football Playoff Predictions

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 TCU

The biggest controversy from this week's rankings was having TCU third, ahead of undefeated Florida State and three spots ahead of a Baylor team that defeated the Horned Frogs earlier this season. 

While there will be plenty of debate about Baylor's spot in all of this if the Bears defeat ninth-ranked Kansas State on Saturday, TCU will likely move behind Florida State if the Seminoles defeat No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. 

It seems unlikely that TCU will end the season with a second loss, as the Horned Frogs' only remaining obstacle is against Iowa State, which is still looking for its first conference win in 2014. It's also become increasingly clear how much the selection committee really likes Gary Patterson's team. 

How much? 

According to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, TCU has the highest odds of any team to make the College Football Playoff at 96.3 percent:

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Those odds might seem incredibly high, but TCU has a cupcake opponent in 2-9 Iowa State, against whom it’s a 97 percent favorite, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). TCU remains unlikely to make the playoff should it lose, but it looks safer in the event of a win. That’s bad news for the teams ranking just behind it: Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor.

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With little chance of losing on Saturday, TCU's only question is where it will slot in the rankings. A win over Iowa State doesn't enhance the resume, so based on the second game, the head-to-head loss against Baylor should finally come into play and knock it down one spot. 

That will set up a showdown with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide are the best team in the country, according to the polls and most metrics, including the ESPN Football Power Index, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Of the four major conference championship games this weekend (ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC), Alabama has the easiest opponent among the higher-ranked teams. Missouri is ranked 16th in the CFP Top 25. History is also on the Crimson Tide's side, as noted by David Morrison of the Columbia Daily-Tribune:

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In the 22 years of the SEC Championship Game, the lower-ranked team has won only six times: No. 6 Alabama over No. 3 Florida in 1994, No. 7 Alabama over No. 5 Florida in 1999, No. 21 LSU over No. 2 Tennessee in 2001, No. 13 Georgia over No. 3 LSU in 2005, No. 2 Florida over No. 1 Alabama in 2008 and No. 2 Alabama over No. 1 Florida in 2009.

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Missouri does have something that every team fears: elite edge-rushers. Shane Ray and Markus Golden have combined for 36.5 tackles for loss and 22 sacks this season, per Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Ray and Golden have to play the best game of their lives, while Maty Mauk has to try exploiting Alabama's secondary the way Nick Marshall did last week for Missouri to have a shot. 

Given how erratic Mauk has been this year, completing 53.5 percent of his passes, look for Nick Saban's defense to get back on track. Alabama will cruise into the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 overall seed. 

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Baylor

The Rose Bowl is where there figure to be some changes. Oregon isn't a surprise since it currently holds the No. 2 spot and is currently a 14-point favorite against Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game, per OddsShark.com. 

That number will surprise some, as the Wildcats have beaten Oregon the last two times the teams have played, including 31-24 at Autzen Stadium on October 2. Marcus Mariota was sacked seven times in that game, though the Ducks have improved their pass protection since that time. 

Mariota has been sacked 14 times in seven games since Arizona made him a human pinata, according to Paul Myerberg of USA Today. 

While Arizona has gotten better as the year has gone on, so has Oregon. Mariota has more time to make plays than he did in the first meeting, and the results have shown with 47 total touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Oregon overcame one obstacle en route to the College Football Playoff this season, defeating Stanford on November 1. This feels like the final step the Ducks have been building toward throughout Mariota's tenure as quarterback, and they won't disappoint this time. 

The tricky part is figuring out which team will round out the field. Baylor, Ohio State, Florida State and TCU are fighting over two spots. This prediction already has TCU as the No. 4 seed, which should tell you how I see things shaking out over the weekend. 

Ohio State has a lot of talent, but it's also breaking in a new quarterback against a good Wisconsin team, so the Buckeyes' chances decreased exponentially when J.T. Barrett got hurt. Florida State has been flirting with disaster all year yet somehow finds ways to win games. 

However, the Seminoles are going up against a new animal when Georgia Tech steps on the field. The Yellow Jackets boast one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 333.8 yards per game on the ground. 

Per Coy Wire of Fox Sports, the Yellow Jackets represent a bad matchup for most teams with the way they have controlled the clock during their five-game winning streak:

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GT’s offense is demoralizing and unforgiving. During their current five-game win streak, their average time of possession is 36:06. That means they’ve held the ball an average of 12 minutes more than their opponents during that span -- that’s almost an entire quarter their opponent doesn’t have the ball. If Winston throws interceptions in the ACC title game, it’ll be difficult to overcome.

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Jameis Winston's mistakes are becoming a problem, as he's thrown 17 interceptions this season. In a game where time of possession can mean everything, the Seminoles are trending in the wrong direction. 

That leaves Baylor as the most likely beneficiary of a marquee matchup against Kansas State and two potential upsets in other games. This prediction does come with the caveat of quarterback Bryce Petty being able to play. 

It was clear last week against Texas Tech how much Baylor's offense suffers without Petty, who left the game with a concussion. The Red Raiders were up 35-17 when he left before holding on for a 48-46 win. 

Petty and Art Briles have said the expectation is the star quarterback will play, leading the nation's top scoring offense against the Wildcats. Kansas State is that team no one seems to recognize, yet you look up, and it's in the top 10. 

Like Oregon, this used to be a spot that would trip up Baylor. Briles has been building this program up to this moment. Save for the fourth-quarter hiccup last week, the Bears have been on fire with at least 48 points scored in their last four games. 

Baylor's win, combined with projected losses for Florida State and Ohio State, will push it into the playoffs. At that point, the selection committee should give the Bears a bump over TCU by virtue of their head-to-head win on October 11. 

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