Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts will go for their third straight win and hit the road for the first time in a month when they visit the Cleveland Browns Sunday. The Colts have played their last three games at home, going 2-1 straight up and against the spread, and they have also won three of their past four on the road.

Point spread: Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.5-24.4 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis simply has too much firepower for the Browns, who will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard, even if they make a quarterback switch to rookie Johnny Manziel.

Brian Hoyer, Cleveland’s current starting quarterback, has really struggled and will not be able to trade points with Andrew Luck of the Colts. The only two games Indy has lost since Week 2 came against teams capable of scoring points in bunches—the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots.

The Browns do not fit into that category, obviously, making it difficult for them to even cover the spread here.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

What Cleveland can do is play outstanding defense at home and hope that is enough to keep this game close, possibly even putting the team in position for an upset win.

The Browns have allowed only one opponent to score more than 24 points against them since beating the Tennessee Titans 29-28 in Week 5 as one-point road favorites, and that came last week in a 26-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills away from home as three-point underdogs.

Cleveland has given up 17 points or less in three of its last four home games and will definitely have a chance to cover if the Colts stay within that same limit.

Smart pick

Indianapolis has gone 24-6 in its last 30 games as a road favorite, with a 9-2 mark ATS in the past 11. The Colts have also won six of the previous seven meetings with the Browns, and they are still in the running for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.

They know they have to win games like this down the stretch and may need to go on the road and play outdoors against the New England Patriots or Denver Broncos at some point in the postseason if they do not secure home-field advantage.

This is a great test for Indy’s offense against a solid defense, but it's one the team will pass. With the spread sitting at a little more than a field goal, look for the Colts to beat Cleveland by at least one touchdown as they move a step closer to winning their second straight AFC South title.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in five of Indianapolis's last five games on the road.
• Cleveland is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.