Breaking Down Miami Dolphins' Late-Season Schedule
With just four games left to go in the 2014 season, the Miami Dolphins find themselves at 7-5, and if the postseason started today, they would own the final AFC playoff spot.
These final four games represent a good test for the Dolphins to see just how ready for prime time they are. Three of those games are at home, with two of them coming against sub-.500 teams.
While that might seem easy on paper, in the NFL we know it's far from that. We saw that on Monday night, as the Dolphins squeaked out a close one over the 2-10 New York Jets, a team they will see again in this upcoming stretch.
Let's take a look at the final quarter of the season for Miami and see if it has the legs to give 2014 a strong finishing kick.
The Dolphins are going to need said kick in order to punch their ticket into January.
Miami's Final Four Games on the Schedule
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| Date | Team | Time | Network |
| 12/7/2014 | vs. Baltimore Ravens | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 12/14/2014 | @ New England Patriots | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 12/21/2014 | vs. Minnesota Vikings | 1 p.m. ET* | FOX |
| 12/28/2014 | vs. New York Jets | 1 p.m. ET* | CBS |
Schedule provided by MiamiDolphins.com. Times subject to change due to flex scheduling.
This is the path Miami must overcome in order to get to the playoffs.
Each team presents its own challenges, and in every case, the record does not matter.
Looking at this schedule, one thing you will notice is that Miami has perhaps the easiest path toward a playoff berth among the AFC playoff contenders due to having three out of its final four games at home (including its last two games), as well as two games against sub-.500 teams.
Compare that to some of the other teams, who will have to face each other (and in some cases, multiple times). Down the stretch, Miami only faces one team it is battling for that final playoff spot.
That one game is next week.
12/7: Vs. Baltimore
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Last season saw the Dolphins lose out on the final playoff spot due to missed opportunities.
The two games often cited are Miami's final two games of the season against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, but the Dolphins' Week 5 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens comes to mind as a big missed opportunity.
To recap the game, the Dolphins had a chance at a game-tying field goal, but Caleb Sturgis missed the 57-yard kick, allowing the Ravens to leave South Florida with a 26-23 victory.
This season, the game might again have to be decided on the foot of Sturgis, as both teams are fairly evenly matched.
Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in points scored and seventh in points allowed. The Dolphins aren't slouches in those departments themselves, as they're ranked 10th in points scored and sixth in points allowed.
Their paths to these rankings have been different. Baltimore has done it behind a powerful run game led by Justin Forsett, who already has 1,009 yards and seven touchdowns on the season.
Miami's main weapon of choice has been the short-passing game, which has allowed it to chew up clock and tire out defenses.
In terms of defenses, Miami looked like it was exposed against the run in the last two weeks and will face its toughest opponent in the run category this week.
Unlike the New York Jets though, Forsett and the Ravens have Joe Flacco at quarterback, who could easily keep the Dolphins honest and not allow them to just stack nine men in the box as they did at times against the Jets.
Can Miami's run defense recover? That will be the key to Sunday's game, a game where the winner will have a big advantage in the fight for the AFC's final playoff spot.
12/14: @ New England
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We're mainly going to talk about Miami's chances of claiming one of the AFC's wild-card slots, but there is a scenario in play.
If the Patriots (currently two games up on Miami) lose to San Diego on Sunday, then the next week could help the Dolphins win the AFC East title.
Yes, it's a very real possibility. This is what happens when you take care of business at home.
The Dolphins defeated the Patriots 33-20 in Week 1—a game that saw Ryan Tannehill struggle and Knowshon Moreno flourish. Miami's defensive line did a tremendous job getting to Tom Brady, who was sacked four times on the afternoon.
That game feels like it was forever ago, as Tannehill has improved since that game (he was inconsistent against the Patriots in Week 1), Moreno is out, Reshad Jones is back for the Dolphins and Rob Gronkowski is healthy again for the Patriots.
Gronkowski was primarily used as a decoy in the first meeting due to still recovering from a serious knee injury. This time around, it looks like he will be fully healthy and as dominant as he has looked in the last few weeks.
To counter this, Gronkowski will likely see Dion Jordan cover him, which should be Miami's strategy.
A win in New England will give the Dolphins their first season sweep of the Patriots since 2000, which should be a point of pride for the Dolphins. If Miami wins out and New England loses at least one other game alongside the Dolphins game, the Dolphins would be AFC East champions.
A lot has to happen for that, but most importantly, the Dolphins have to win in New England, something they haven't done since 2008.
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12/21: Vs. Minnesota
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Four days before Christmas, the Dolphins will host a holiday homecoming of sorts, as Miami native Teddy Bridgewater comes to town with his Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings are practically out of the NFC's playoff race, but they have fought well all season long, earning themselves a 5-7 record.
Getting their record above .500 might be a big carrot on the stick for Minnesota, which is part of the reason why this game will be so challenging for the Dolphins.
The other reason is Minnesota's pass defense, which currently is ranked sixth in the league in yards allowed and has recorded 35 sacks. Ryan Tannehill will be under pressure all afternoon, but Miami can alleviate that with a stout run game.
Lamar Miller must get at least 20 carries in this game. The Vikings rank 24th against the run and have allowed an average of 123.8 yards per game.
If the Dolphins are able to exploit that weakness, they should come away victorious in what will most certainly be a must-win game.
12/28: Vs. New York Jets
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If you thought Monday's game was emotional from the New York Jets' perspective, you will be floored by the final game of the season.
Week 17's Dolphins-Jets tilt in Miami will likely be Rex Ryan's final game as Jets head coach. Through his career in New York, Ryan has earned the love of his players, players who are willing to fight for him week-to-week.
Ryan would love nothing more than to play spoiler to Miami's playoff hopes in Week 17, a role that he relished last season, beating the Dolphins 20-7.
This time around the Dolphins are better, but Ryan and the Jets do seem to have the blueprint. They can get the requisite pressure on Ryan Tannehill and feel confident that he can't hit the deep ball. They have the confidence from Monday's game that they can beat the Dolphins in the trenches.
This game will be a challenge for the Dolphins, but it will be one that should go a little easier for them than the first meeting. If Miami gets off to a fast start, odds are the Jets will quietly fade away.
In order for this Jets game to mean something for the Dolphins though, Miami will have to win at least two out of its next three games. Failure to do that turns this game into a potential "Loser Leaves Town" match, instead of it being Miami's 2014 playoff coronation.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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