Jets vs. Vikings: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
The 2-10 New York Jets may not have much on the line anymore, but they will be fighting to save resumes and pride during the closing month on what has been by far the longest season of Rex Ryan's Jets.
The good news for the Jets is that their remaining schedule is relatively easy, starting with the 5-7 Minnesota Vikings. After a promising start, rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is feeding his doubters with plenty of fuel, looking more and more overmatched with each start.
For the Jets, even just for the sake of getting the negative feelings out of their building, simply getting a win would certainly be a welcome change of pace among players and coaches alike. The end may be near for the majority of players and coaches on this roster, but they may as well go out as strong as possible to end their careers on a (relatively) positive note.
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Blitz Teddy Bridgewater
As inconsistent as Bridgewater has been steering the Vikings through an up-and-down 2014 season, there is one trait opponents have been able to count on this season: his wild variance in performance with and without pressure.
According to statistics provided by Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater's performance is essentially dependent on the presence of pressure. Specifically, Bridgewater is much more effective when he is not blitzed, getting the most of his production against more conservative defenses.
| No | 65.3 | 0 | 7.6 | 87.6 |
| Yes | 52.7 | 25 | 4.2 | 61.5 |
| No Blitz | 62.7 | 19 | 6.6 | 77.5 |
| Blitz | 57.8 | 6 | 6.1 | 82.3 |
Like many rookies, Bridgewater takes a bit longer to survey the field than his veteran counterparts. This results in some open receivers left running free while he takes sacks and hits, as seen on this sack against the Chicago Bears:
In most years, this tendency would play right into Rex Ryan's hands as one of the most aggressive, blitz-happy defenses in the league. However, because of a lack of depth and reliability in the secondary, Ryan has been forced to take on a much more conservative, traditional approach to defense, and his opponents have taken notice.
Facing such a poor player against the blitz, however, Ryan should not be afraid to dust off his old playbook and throw the kitchen sink of exotic blitzes at the rookie, forcing him to decipher them on the fly.
Ryan also has another reason to lean on extra pressure. His top pass-rusher, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, may not be able to play for the second straight week.
The Jets defensive line is still loaded with some talented players who can win one-on-one matchups, but asking them to win consistently against double-teams without their top player to draw attention is tough. Using the blitz to get his defensive linemen in one-on-one situations—typically by sending five or more rushers at the quarterback—will ensure the Bridgewater endures a steady stream of pressure all afternoon.
Attack Brian Robison in the Run Game
It does not quite get the credit it deserves from a national standpoint, but the Minnesota Vikings defense is loaded with plenty of stars on all three levels of defense without many glaring weaknesses to speak of.
Meanwhile, the Jets have proved to be capable in one area of offensive football: the running game. After putting up high school numbers against a quality Miami Dolphins defense last week on the ground (277 yards), the Jets figure to be capable of having some success against the Vikings front—if they attack the right areas.
With former first-round pick Sharrif Floyd anchoring the middle of the defense while Everson Griffen dominates on the right side of the formation, the left side is the best place for the Jets to attack with a heavy dose of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson.
Manning the left side is Brian Robison, who has been the weakest link on the Vikings' starting defensive line. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Robison ranks 32nd among 4-3 defensive ends when it comes to stopping the run.
Although they did not run in his direction nearly as much as they should have, the Carolina Panthers had some success running in Robison's direction last week. Here, Jonathan Stewart picks up an easy seven yards while Robison is moved off the line of scrimmage.
Regardless of where Ivory runs, he is primed for a productive afternoon. According to Ben Goessling of ESPN.com, the Vikings allowed 50 of their 178 rushing yards against the Panthers after contact. Trying to stop one of the league's best post-contact runners in Ivory won't be any easier.
The Jets should certainly test all angles of the Vikings line to see if they are up for the task, but focusing on Robison will give them the best chance to field a running game that can even come close to their astronomical production last week.
Take Deep Shots
As successful as the Jets were against the Miami Dolphins on the ground, they could never capitalize on their dominant running game with a few chunk passing plays to take advantage of a loaded box.
Some of the blame can be placed on Geno Smith for missing some of the chances they had, but in truth, they simply did not try enough. Before the final drive of the game, the Jets had eight (eight!) passing attempts all game, finishing with 13.
Those numbers may be good enough to win a high school contest, but the Jets are kidding themselves if they think those attempt numbers are capable of winning NFL games week in and week out.
It was not as if the Dolphins were begging the Jets to run. In fact, they were doing the exact opposite, loading the box to stop the run. There were shots to be taken against the Dolphins defense, just like there will be against the Vikings.
This play is a 2nd-and-short situation—the ideal environment to take a shot down the field. The Dolphins are lined up in a Cover 1 man look, essentially begging the Jets to pass.
Instead, the Jets stick to their plan and run Ivory into a cloud of dust for a one-yard gain.
Ryan and his staff deserve credit for sticking to their plan, but they need to find more of a balance between sticking to the run while making the most of every advantage that comes along with a strong ground attack.
For some of the few more secure players on the team, there is no doubt that finding motivation will be a challenge in the final month of a lost season. However, the future of most of the men on the sidelines is very much in the air; their performance over these final few games will go on their resume regardless of what their record is.
No amount of success over the next month can erase what has occurred this season, but the Jets can at least salvage some pride by putting forth a professional effort in these final games.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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