Breaking Down Pittsburgh Steelers' Late-Season Schedule
With only four games left in the regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers sit in 10th place in the AFC. As bleak as it sounds, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers remain in contention for a playoff spot.
At 7-5, the Steelers are in a six-way tie for the final playoff spot in the AFC and still have an opportunity to win their division. Given their inconsistent play this season, that is a bit of a surprise. But, despite the inconsistent play, Mike Tomlin’s team can earn a berth in the postseason if it finishes the season 4-0.
The drive to the postseason begins this weekend as the Steelers have the first of two games against the Cincinnati Bengals. By winning each of these games, Pittsburgh goes from a long shot to make the playoffs to being a favorite.
A loss and the road to the postseason gets much more difficult. As they learned last year, the Steelers do not want to rest their postseason hopes on other teams. Last year, a missed field goal by the Kansas City Chiefs' Ryan Succop helped propel the San Diego Chargers into the playoffs ahead of the Steelers.
The only way to for the Steelers to guarantee themselves a playoff berth is to win their final four games. However, are the Steelers capable of going on this type of win streak to finish the season? Here is a breakdown of each matchup left on Pittsburgh’s schedule.
Remaining Schedule
1 of 5Week 14: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Week 15: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Week 16: Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
Week 17: Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
The race for the AFC North will heat up between the Steelers (7-5) and Bengals (8-3-1) as they face each other twice over the final four weeks. The season finale at Heinz Field could potentially decide the division if the Steelers win at Cincinnati this weekend.
After the Bengals, the Steelers travel to Atlanta where they will face the division-leading Falcons (5-7). On paper, this is the Steelers' easiest game left on the schedule. The AFC North has an 11-2-1 record against the NFC South, but both of the losses were by the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is tied with the Kansas City (7-5) for the final playoff spot. The Steelers would love to knock the Chiefs out of the playoffs after a Kansas City loss to the Chargers eliminated them last season.
The Steelers will need their offense to rediscover its firepower and the defense to perform better than it did against the New Orleans Saints to have a chance. They must go 4-0 to win the division and will have to win at least three games to have a chance at the final wild-card spot.
Week 14 at Cincinnati (8-3-1)
2 of 5
The calendar may say December, but the playoffs will unofficially begin for the Steelers on Sunday as they travel to Cincinnati to take on the AFC North-leading Bengals.
Although the game is not a “must-win” for the Steelers, a loss would essentially eliminate them from any realistic opportunity at the playoffs. However, with a victory they would have the chance to win the division by defeating the Bengals in the final week of the season.
Pittsburgh has won nine of 11 games played in Cincinnati since 2004 but lost at Paul Brown Stadium last year 20-10. Unlike history suggests, Sunday’s game will not be easy for the Steelers. They are 3-3 away from Heinz Field and have only scored 18.3 points per game.
The likely solution to their scoring woes on the road would be to lean on Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, but that is not the case. Instead, the Steelers will need production from their No. 2 and 3 receivers.
When Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant can contribute, Pittsburgh’s offense becomes more balanced. Rather than force the ball to its offensive stars, it can spread the ball around the field and put up points.
Over the past four home games, Cincinnati’s defense has given up at least 23 points. It is essential that the Steelers score because you never know the type of defensive effort they will get. Given their recent struggles, expect the Bengals to approach 30 points.
Andy Dalton is hit-and-miss this year, but the odds are good that he hits on Sunday. However, the Steelers should get more reinforcements, as Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier are expected to return to the lineup, per Scott Brown of ESPN.com.
Their speed and ability to get to the quarterback will help pressure Dalton and contain Giovani Bernard. As long as the defense can keep the Bengals at their average of 21.7 points, the Steelers will have a good chance at winning.
Week 15 at Atlanta (5-7)
3 of 5
The Atlanta Falcons will have a sub-.500 record whenever they play the Steelers, but that does not make them a pushover. Atlanta leads the NFC South and has a dangerous array of weapons on offense with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White.
As we have seen twice this year, the Steelers have struggled against NFC South teams. They blew a lead at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and were blown out at home by the New Orleans Saints—despite what the final score indicated.
Historically speaking, the past five games against the Falcons were decided by one score, including the past three in overtime. That is not to say that this game will be close, but rather the Steelers and Falcons have played some tight games over the years.
The concern with this Week 15 matchup is that the Falcons qualify as a below-.500 team, which the Steelers have not fared well against this season. They have only won on three of six games against these teams.
Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the league (284.9 yards per game) and the 11th-worst scoring defense (24.9 points per game). This is the perfect game for Ben Roethlisberger, Brown, Bryant and Heath Miller to shine.
The Steelers will have to put up plenty of points, as Atlanta scores an impressive 24.3 points per game, good enough for 12th place in the league. Jones will be a major part of the offense, but this is the type of game where an unheralded player such as Levine Toilolo scores a touchdown.
Even though this is an out-of-conference game, the Steelers cannot afford a third loss to an NFC South team. Both teams will be fighting for a playoff spot, and it will be Pittsburgh’s passing attack that will provide an edge against Atlanta.
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Week 16 vs. Kansas City (7-5)
4 of 5
By the time the Kansas City Chiefs come to town, the Steelers may be in direct competition with them for the final wild-card spot. That will make this one of the most interesting games of Week 16.
Kansas City matches up well with the Steelers, as it boasts a strong running game (seventh in the league) and the best pass defense in the NFL. Even though the Chiefs rank 31st in passing, it should not matter much, as good and bad quarterbacks have had success against the Steelers this season.
Jamaal Charles is the clear focus of Kansas City’s offense. He already has 1,021 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. His ability as an all-around back will give the defense problems. But he is not alone.
Though his numbers are pedestrian, Alex Smith will be tough for the defenders to get a hand on with his ability to scramble. Add in the tight end duo of Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano, and the Chiefs have two dangerous options in the red zone.
They have a formidable defense as well. Pittsburgh’s tackles will have their hands full with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston.
Hali has five sacks this year, but the real story is Houston. He has 14 sacks, and those numbers should be even higher by the time he visits Heinz Field. With this type of pass rush, the Chiefs should be able to contain Pittsburgh’s aerial attack. Add in Dontari Poe in the middle, and the offensive line will have plenty of problems.
This may be the toughest matchup remaining this season for the Steelers, and they will be hard-pressed to beat this team. The Chiefs already have road wins at Miami, San Diego and Buffalo, and Pittsburgh could be next.
Expect this to be a close game, as the loser will essentially be eliminated from playoff contention.
Week 17 vs. Cincinnati (8-3-1)
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There is little to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. If the Steelers enter the finale on a three-game winning streak, this game will decide the AFC North. Even if the Steelers only have nine wins at this point, a win could mean the sixth seed in the playoffs.
In an important game against Cincinnati last December, Pittsburgh rolled out to a 24-0 lead before winning 30-20. Roethlisberger was efficient as he completed 80 percent of his passes, while Brown and Bell combined for three touchdowns.
A year later, Pittsburgh’s top two weapons are even better than they were last year. For this reason the Steelers would have the edge over Cincinnati in a battle for the division. The trio of Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell has greater potential to do damage than Dalton, Bernard and A.J. Green.
However, it is a lot to ask of the Steelers to win four games in a row. Their longest win streak this year is three games, and it took two six-touchdown performances by Roethlisberger to get these wins. The odds of this type of streak are not particularly high.
Three wins in their final four games should be the realistic expectations. That likely means no AFC North title and that they will need help to make the playoffs. But if they continue to play as they have all season, the Steelers will split their final two games and be on the outside looking in once again.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com, and all roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
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