Oregon Football: Postseason Bowl Options for the Ducks

The second-ranked Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1) are one step away from reaching the inaugural College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, quarterback Marcus Mariota is one performance away from locking up the first Heisman Trophy in school history. 

Of course, the Ducks are also one misstep away from losing out on what could be the best season in school history. Their opponent in the Pac-12 Championship Game, Arizona, has handed Oregon its last two losses.

After what has been an incredible run for the Ducks, there are only a few bowl-game options for them. There are six premier bowl games, and the CFP committee will determine the contestants in each of those games.

Moreover, each of those games will be played on either Dec. 31 or Jan. 1 on national television.

The Ducks are a lock for a New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day bowl game. With a win over Arizona and a Pac-12 title in tow, the Ducks will be locked into the Rose Bowl.

However, if they lose to Arizona for the third consecutive time, their bowl situation gets a bit murkier.

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

Rose Bowl or Bust

The CFP committee will make a final decision on the four playoff participants this weekend and will announce the final bracket on Sunday (9:30 a.m. PST on ESPN).

As long as the Ducks are able to take out the Wildcats in the Pac-12 title game, they will play at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.

If the Ducks win, they’ll likely be either the first or second seed in the final CFP rankings. If that holds true—it should—the Ducks will be placed at the semifinal venue closest to them—the Rose Bowl—per section 9B of the CFP selection protocol:

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When assigning teams to sites, the committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home-crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed.

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The Ducks would be a great fit for the Rose Bowl, as they would have a strong following of loyal fans and would keep the Pac-12 tie-in with the game.

The Rose Bowl’s ideal scenario would have seen Oregon take on Ohio State; however, with the loss of Heisman candidate J.T. Barrett, it’s highly unlikely that will happen.

Also, it seems as though the playoff committee is inclined to have Florida State play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, assuming both teams win their conference championships on Saturday, Dec. 6.

Not only would that matchup draw an unmatched national audience, but it would also draw one of the largest crowds in Sugar Bowl history due to the proximity of both universities. That’s likely one of the reasons Florida State is currently ranked No. 4 in the CFP poll and that TCU jumped to No. 3 this week.

TheBigLead.com's Jason McIntyre notes the potential scenario:

In my opinion, if the Ducks win the Pac-12 title in convincing fashion, they’ll end up as the No. 1 seed. That would leave Alabama and Florida State as the second and third seeds.

In this scenario, Oregon would likely end up facing TCU, Baylor or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Of course, if the Ducks lose to Arizona for a third consecutive time, all of their postseason dreams will go up in smoke.

Ross Franklin/Associated Press

New Year’s Eve/Day Possibilities

If the Ducks were to lose to Arizona (take a deep breath Oregon fans, this is hypothetical), they would almost assuredly play in one of the other four premier New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day bowl games.

In total, six bowl games are hand-picked by the CFP committee. This year, the Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) and Sugar Bowl (New Orleans) were selected as the New Year’s Day semifinal sites, and the Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas) will also be played on Jan. 1.

On New Year’s Eve, there are three other premier bowl games that the Ducks would hypothetically be eligible to play in—the Orange Bowl (Miami), Peach Bowl (Atlanta) and Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona).

Here is how the playoff committee will select the participants in the four non-semifinal bowl games, according to section 10 of the CFP selection protocol:

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A. All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee. If berths in the selected other bowl games remain available after those teams have been identified, the highest ranked other teams, as ranked by the committee, will fill those berths in rank order.’(Note: A “displaced conference champion” is a champion of a contract conference that does not qualify for the playoff in a year when its contract bowl hosts a semifinal game.)

B. The committee shall create the best matchups in these bowl games in light of the following considerations. None of these considerations shall affect the ranking of teams. Also, none of these considerations will be controlling in determining the assignment of teams to available bowl games. The committee will use geography as a consideration in the pairing of teams and assigning them to available bowl games. The committee will attempt to avoid regular-season rematches when assigning teams to bowls. To benefit fans and student-athletes, the committee will attempt to avoid assigning a team, or conference, or the highest-ranked champion of a non-contract conference, to the same bowl game repeatedly. The committee will consider regular-season head-to-head results when assigning teams to bowls. The committee will consider conference championships when assigning teams to bowls.

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The key point within this part of the selection protocol is that the committee would make decisions based on geography. So, you can throw out the Orange Bowl and Peach Bowl.

That would leave the Cotton and Fiesta bowls as options for the Ducks. If the Ducks lose to Arizona and the Wildcats earn a bid into the CFP, then Oregon would mostly likely end up playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

However, if the Wildcats beat Oregon and don’t make the Top Four, then Arizona would likely play in the Fiesta Bowl. In that case, the Ducks would likely be on their way to Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas. Per ESPN.com Pac-12 writer Ted Miller:

The Ducks would love the opportunity to play in Arlington, but they don’t want to play there on Jan. 1. They want to play in Texas on Jan. 12 for the national title.

Oregon has positioned itself well to make a run at a national title this season. However, without a victory over Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, the 2014 season will have been a tease of unbearable proportions.

The Ducks are so close to completing one of the finest seasons in school history. Heck, with a Pac-12 title and a Heisman Trophy winner—which would be a first for the program—you could make a case that the 2014 campaign has been the best in school history.

Mariota and company are on the precipice of greatness. With three more victories, the Ducks will be national champions. However, they must be cautious with every step. The Wildcats are not a team the Ducks can afford to overlook.

If they do overlook, they may be spending New Year's Day somewhere other than Pasadena.

Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.