Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers Complete Big Ten Championship Preview
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Facing the most uncertainty that it has all season, the Ohio State football team will head to Indianapolis for its second consecutive appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game. It is there that the Buckeyes will meet up with Wisconsin, who at 10-2 finds itself favored over 11-1 OSU.
That's because despite the Buckeyes' ascent in the College Football Playoff rankings, they'll be playing with their third-string quarterback in Cardale Jones following a season-ending injury suffered by J.T. Barrett against Michigan. Wisconsin, meanwhile, possesses the nation's second-ranked defense and will head to the Circle City riding a seven-game winning streak.
Will Ohio State be able to overcome the loss of his its second Heisman Trophy candidate this season, or will the Badgers end the Buckeyes' chances of landing in the first-ever College Football Playoff? We'll find out on Saturday. But until then, here's everything you need to know about this weekend's Big Ten Championship Game:
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time: 8:17 p.m. ET
Place: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: FOX
Spread: Wisconsin (-3), via Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Control The Ball
The Ohio State staff and players can say all the right things, about how Jones' and Barrett's skill sets aren't all that dissimilar, but with Jones having attempted just 17 passes this season, it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes will stick to their regular game plan. A large load of the Ohio State offense could fall on the shoulders of running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for 1,182 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season.
"Every player's ready to step up, it's a 'next man up' mentality," Elliott said. "I'm prepared for whatever route the coaches decide to take."
With an inexperienced passing game, it's a safe bet the Buckeyes will head to Indianapolis with a run-first mindset. That, too, will require a big game from Jones, who ranks fourth on Ohio State with 206 yards on the season.
"When he runs, he really reminds of J.T. Just the sneaky speed," Elliott said. "You don't really realize how fast they're going, but he's a bigger quarterback and he's a powerful runner too."
Stack The Box
It's no secret the running game has also been the bread and butter of the Wisconsin offense, dating back to Barry Alvarez's days as the Badgers head coach. That, however, rings especially true this season, as Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon leads the nation with 2,260 yards and 26 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Those numbers will likely land Gordon in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist this season, regardless of what happens this Saturday. For now, he remains Ohio State's biggest concern. It's a challenge, however, that the Buckeyes claim to be embracing, despite the team's recent struggles when it comes to run defense.
"We're looking at a great back here. I know our guys are excited to face him," Ohio State linebacker Joshua Perry said. "They do some things really well in the run game, so we'll just have to be prepared for it."
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Confuse Cardale
With Ohio State breaking in a new quarterback on its biggest stage of the season, Wisconsin's greatest advantage comes from Jones' indisputable inexperience. Badgers head coach Gary Andersen, however, insists that Jones' lack of playing time won't change his team's game plan heading into the conference championship.
"From what I've seen on him, he's very talented obviously," Andersen said. "It doesn't change how we prepare. I'm sure Ohio State will use him to the best of his abilities, and the young men around him will allow their offense to be at its best."
Nevertheless, don't be surprised if Wisconsin has some extra blitz packages and coverages added to its scheme throughout the week. The Badgers defense is great, in and of itself, but a wrinkle or two could make all the difference against a rookie like Jones.
Roll Out
While Wisconsin is best known for its running game, the Badgers' success on the ground has also had a way of opening up the team's passing lanes. With opponents having to respect the run, they've often fallen susceptible to Wisconsin's play-action game, which has been engineered by quarterback Joel Stave.
"Anybody who has a good running game is going to have a chance to be successful," Buckeyes co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell said. "He manages the football games. That's what great Wisconsin quarterbacks have done for a long time."
Stave certainly fits the profile of a prototypical game manager, but on a stage as big as Saturday's, he'll likely be asked to do a little more. Look for Stave's opportunities—no matter how far and few between they come—to play a key role in deciding the outcome of Saturday's Big Ten battle.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Cardale Jones
Ohio State's third-string quarterback heading into the season, there won't be any shortage of storylines involving Jones this week as he heads into the first start of his college career. A product of the storied Cleveland Glenville pipeline, the 6'5", 250-pounder committed to the Buckeyes under head coach Jim Tressel but didn't arrive until Urban Meyer took over the program.
Jones and Meyer clashed, with the OSU head coach at one point claiming that the quarterback had a "one-way ticket back to Cleveland." In his three years on campus, however, the Buckeyes' new starter appears to have turned around his career, making the most of the opportunities that have been put in front of him.
At one point, Jones was even penciled into be Ohio State's starter, as Braxton Miller continued to recover from offseason surgery. And before he was passed on the depth chart by Barrett, he received plenty of reps with the Buckeyes' first-team, which Meyer claims will pay off on Saturday.
"A lot of value," Meyer said of Jones' experience in the spring. "It's going to be his first start. Obviously a really good environment against a very tough defense. But it's not like he's not taking snaps with the one offense or doesn't understand the concepts. So he has a very good understanding."
Jalin Marshall
Should Jones also go down with an injury, that would leave only one scholarship quarterback available for the Buckeyes in true freshman Stephen Collier. If at all possible, Ohio State would prefer to preserve Collier's redshirt, especially this late in the season.
That is why in the event that Jones becomes unavailable, the Buckeyes could very well turn to H-back Jalin Marshall, who has served as OSU's Wildcat quarterback throughout the season. An All-State quarterback at Middletown (Ohio) High School, Marshall is a bigger threat with his legs but has also proved capable as a threat in the passing game.
And even if Jones does stay healthy, it's very well possible that Marshall could see some snaps at quarterback anyways. After all, the loss of Barrett will cause the Buckeyes to get creative as they make their final case for the College Football Playoff.
"I can imagine he'll be involved," Meyer said of Marshall following Ohio State's win over Michigan.
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Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Melvin Gordon
Gordon has been a Heisman Trophy candidate since the 2014 season started but really burst onto the scene three weeks ago. It was on that day that the Kenosha, Wisconsin, native set a new NCAA record, totaling 408 yards against Nebraska.
Gordon's record would fall a week later, but since then he has managed to add 200-yard and 151-yard games to his resume. He has virtually guaranteed his invitation to the Big Apple as a finalist for college football's most prestigious individual award and has a shot at winning it depending on how Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota performs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
More than that, Gordon is the Badgers' most important player, responsible for turning Wisconsin into a team on the verge of cracking the Top 10. If Wisconsin is going to knock off Ohio State, it's going to need a big game from the nation's leading rusher, as he makes one last case to be the Badgers' first Heisman Trophy winner since Ron Dayne.
Joel Stave
After overcoming an early case of the 'yips,' Stave has returned to Wisconsin's lineup, leading the Badgers to a 7-1 record. In the eight games that he's appeared in, Stave has proved solid but not spectacular, completing 58.1 percent of his passes for 1,042 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
At 6'5" and 225 pounds, Stave is hardly a threat to run the ball, having only attempted nine rushes for minus-26 yards, with a long run of 12 yards. His primary function as a passer has been to take advantage of loaded boxes intended to stop Gordon and find receivers like Alex Erickson (44 receptions, 651 yards, three touchdowns).
Stave, however, will have to do more than just hand the ball off if he's going to help lead the Badgers to a Big Ten championship. With the Buckeyes starting a rookie, Wisconsin will have an experience edge at signal-caller but will need that to pay off in order to walk away with a win.
What They're Saying
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It's not often that Ohio State finds itself as an underdog in a game, but given Barrett's absence, that's exactly where the Buckeyes stand heading into Saturday. Meyer claimed to be unaware that his team wasn't being favored against the Badgers and said he's still determining whether that will be used as a motivating factor.
"We'll see. We didn't really discuss this one yesterday," Meyer said. "We'll see what we have to do. I think our players once they get to today, that is their big day of loading their iPads with videotape because we haven't watched them much."
As for his quarterback situation, Meyer expressed confidence in Jones. But he also knows that his new starter has plenty to prove, starting with his preparation for the week.
"We expect our quarterbacks to prepare a certain way," Meyer said. "You hear stories throughout college football history and pro football history about the guys that are gym rats, and that's what J.T. was. Is Cardale that type? I'll let you know. It would be a great bonus for all of us, but he'll certainly put in a lot of time getting ready to go."
With all that's surrounded the Ohio State football team in recent weeks, Andersen knows that his Badgers could be getting a hungry opponent. Add in the fact that the Buckeyes lost last year's title game, and the Wisconsin head coach knows how much Ohio State has on the line but added that his team is also looking to make a statement as well.
“They may have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder because they weren’t successful in that game a year ago. There’s no question about that,” Andersen said via Jason Galloway of the Portage Daily Register. “But we’re excited to be able to get into this game. We’re excited to be in the spot we are. There’s two special teams playing. You get double-digit wins on the season, get a chance to go to the conference championship, you’re part of a special group.”
Prediction
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To be honest, I was already considering picking Wisconsin before Barrett went down in the Buckeyes' regular-season finale.
At the time, my lean toward Wisconsin had more to do with Ohio State's rushing defense, which has struggled mightily in the Buckeyes' past four games. Factor in that the Badgers possess the best running back in the nation and a top-tier defense, and this seemed like the perfect storm for a second consecutive Ohio State conference championship game upset.
But now that it's Jones leading the Buckeyes and not Barrett? A Wisconsin victory seems all the more likely.
Even when Barrett stepped up in the Ohio State lineup two weeks prior to the start of the season, he endured some growing pains, as evidenced by a shaky start against Navy and the Buckeyes' Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech. Given Jones' inexperience, I expect those struggles to be twofold, especially against a defense as sound as Wisconsin's.
Meanwhile, I expect a big day from Gordon, as he makes one last push to take home the Heisman Trophy. Expect for Ohio State to do enough to keep this game competitive for the better part of all four quarters, but the momentum right now certainly seems to fall on the side of Wisconsin.
Final score: Wisconsin 38, Ohio State 28
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
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