Is This the End of Brian Hoyer in Cleveland?

When a quarterback is selected in the first round of the draft it is only a matter of time before he gets his shot. Sometimes that shot comes because of injury. Other times it is necessity. For the Cleveland Browns, Johnny Manziel got his shot because of Brian Hoyer’s consistently poor play.

Hoyer’s best stat is that he is 10-5 as a starter with the Browns. His worst stat is that he has completed just over 50 percent of his passes since Week 6 of this season. In his last seven games he has four touchdowns and nine interceptions.

That is just not good enough for a team in the thick of the playoff hunt.

On Sunday, with 12 minutes to play and the Browns down 17 points, they turned to Manziel. He immediately led them on an eight-play, 80-yard touchdown drive that was capped off with a 10-yard scoring scramble. That is the playmaking ability Manziel brings to the table.

He followed that up with a fumble for a touchdown that was overturned and ruled an incomplete pass. It sure as heck looked like a fumble and a Buffalo score. It also looked like the bad part of playing any rookie quarterback—especially Manziel.

The main argument against letting him start was the fact the Browns were in the midst of a playoff race, and having a rookie learn on the job would be detrimental to their chances. Those chances may have left the building after the Browns' loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, so they now hold a two-game lead over the entire AFC North division. The silver lining of that situation is that the Browns won their first meeting against them.

The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers both have the same records as the Browns but have much easier schedules. They split the season series against the Steelers but have a worse record in common games, so they would lose that tiebreaker.

The Browns lost their first game against Baltimore, so they hold a tiebreaker over the Browns as well.

If the Miami Dolphins defeat the New York Jets, which seems like a certainty, then they would be 7-5 as well. They would also hold tiebreakers over the Browns for the wild card. The Browns' loss to Buffalo on Sunday places them behind the Bills in the wild-card race as well.

Essentially, the Browns woke up with hope of the playoffs on Sunday morning and will go to bed as the 11th seed in the AFC. Such is life in a stacked conference. Sure, they could still make the postseason, but with games left at home against the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati and on the road against Baltimore and the Carolina Panthers, it does not seem likely.

That is why turning the keys over to Manziel now is the right decision. It does not mean you are throwing in the towel on the season. In fact, it means you are trying to revitalize what the Browns did so well to get to this point.

The reason Hoyer was the better choice for much of the season was that he took care of the football and made the most of what the defense gave him. That is not happening anymore. Opponents have figured out that if you stop the running game then Hoyer cannot beat you with his arm.

Since Hoyer began playing poorly, the Browns have defeated just one team with a wining record. In Cincinnati they ran the ball 52 times, and Hoyer passed it just 23 times for 198 yards. That game was hardly won by Hoyer’s arm.

They have lost to the other two teams they played with a non-losing record: the Houston Texans and Buffalo. Both of those teams have playoff-caliber defenses but probably won’t be able to make the postseason. What would happen when they see one of the truly complete teams in the league with everything on the line?

Manziel adds another threat of the run while having the ability to make plays on the outside: two elements the Browns have sorely lacked over the last two months.

So he will make some rookie mistakes, so what? When the gap between your rookie and your veteran becomes almost indistinguishable then it’s time to go with the young gun. The Browns have to find out what they have at some point.

Head coach Mike Pettine, who made the switch with quite a lot of time left in the game on Sunday, will take his time before making the switch permanent.

"

QB update: Browns coach Mike Pettine will watch tape before deciding Hoyer or Manziel, Redskins coach Jay Gruden says it’s still Colt McCoy

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 30, 2014"

This decision cannot be take lightly. If the change is made and Manziel starts next week against Indianapolis at home, that is all she wrote for Hoyer. There is no going back.

In true Hoyer form, he won’t admit he has lost until all his chances are gone. Just like in his heroic fourth-quarter drives, he has a never-say-die attitude.

"

Hoyer says he was shocked by the decision. "This my team. We'll see what happens." #Browns

— Tom Withers (@twithersAP) November 30, 2014"

If Pettine and his staff are smart, however, they will make Manziel the guy for the rest of the year in Cleveland. Sure, Hoyer might be able to play well enough to sneak you in the playoffs. But is he anywhere near good enough to make a deep run? I don’t think anyone would say he is.

So what if Manziel is good enough to sneak Cleveland into the playoffs? Doesn’t he have special playmaking talent to defy expectations and advance the Browns deeper in the postseason than they should probably go? Most people who are thinking objectively would probably say yes he does—especially if he maneuvered the Browns through this late-season gauntlet and into the postseason.

In the end, it’s about knowing what you have for next season. This is a very young roster with a ton of talent. Most likely, at the start of next season center Alex Mack will be healthy, the Browns won't have so many injuries on defense and will have wide receiver Josh Gordon for the whole year.

They will have also added two first-round draft picks, and their top pick from this season, Justin Gilbert, will be in the starting lineup. The Browns also do not lose any key free agents after this year.

In short, they should be a much better team at the beginning of 2015. They should know exactly whom they want to roll with at quarterback because next year they shouldn’t just be a wild-card contending team; they should be a legitimate AFC contender.

There has been so much losing in Cleveland that people forget the Super Bowl is always the goal. By playing Manziel now you find out whether he has the potential to get you there. If he doesn’t then he doesn’t. You can always re-sign Hoyer or draft another quarterback.

No harm, no foul. But either way the Browns have to find out. This is as much a financial decision as it is trying to add a spark on the field. Shouldn’t they know their alternative if they are going to give Hoyer millions of dollars and a multiyear commitment?

Hoyer had a shot to keep Manziel on the bench, and he blew it. For so long his win-loss record as a starter protected him. Now vastly different numbers are defining him. His low completion percentage and interceptions have hurt him and the Browns.

They are a big reason why the Browns now find themselves with slim playoff chances. They are the entire reason why Manziel has a legitimate shot at beginning his career as a starter next week.