Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Carolina hasn't won a game since the first week of October, and yet at 3-7-1 the Panthers are only a half-game out of first place in the miserable NFC South.

Carolina is also 6-5 ATS on the season, with four covers in its last seven games. The Panthers could own the lead in the NFC South if they can beat the 4-7 Vikings on Sunday in Minneapolis.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as two-point favorites—the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 15.2-13.1 Vikings

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers lost their fifth game in a row two weeks ago to Atlanta 19-17, but covered as three-point home dogs.

Carolina trailed the Falcons through three quarters 16-3, rallied to take a 17-16 lead with six minutes to go, but gave up an Atlanta field goal with two minutes left and couldn't complete the comeback.

And yet, since the rest of the NFC South has also struggled, the Panthers find themselves just a half-game behind the Falcons and Saints for the division lead. Finally, Carolina just beat the Vikings last season 35-10, as Cam Newton threw three touchdown passes without an interception.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings just gave the rival Packers all they could handle last week, losing 24-21 but covering as seven-point home dogs. Minnesota played Green Bay just about even (statistically) and looked particularly good on a late touchdown drive that culminated in Teddy Bridgewater's second touchdown pass of the game.

So with four covers in their last five games, the Vikings are also now 6-5 ATS on the season. Minnesota has dealt with a lot this season—such as the new coaching regime, the loss of both its starting quarterback and Adrian Peterson and some offensive ineptness—but Mike Zimmer's defense has held them in several games recently.

And Carolina isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse.

Smart Pick

The Panthers hold the edge on offense in this matchup, but Minnesota owns edges in the running game and on defense. Also, Carolina is 2-3 ATS on the road this season, while the Vikes are 3-2 ATS at home. So the smart choice here is with the home team, at the short spread.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Carolina's last five games when playing Minnesota.
• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.