Dolphins vs. Jets: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan

Lost in the circus act that has become of the New York Jets is the fact that they still have a month's worth of games to play, starting with the Miami Dolphins in front of what should be a "welcoming" crowd on Monday Night Football. 

The Jets managed to reach a new low point in last week's delayed meeting with the Buffalo Bills, getting blown out 38-3 against a Kyle Orton-led team that spent more time digging themselves out of snow than preparing for the game. With many jobs virtually lost at this point, motivation to perform at optimal levels will be at a premium. 

Meanwhile, the visiting Miami Dolphins have a completely opposite outlook on their season. Currently at 6-5, a victory over their rival Jets would set them up for a playoff spot if they continue to win in December. A loss, however, may all but eliminate them from contention. 

At this point, the Jets are playing for nothing more than pride—or what is left of it in this disastrous season. Knocking their division rivals out of the playoff race won't negate their record, but it could help them swallow the results over the past eight weeks much easier. 

Attack the Tackles

What has made Ryan Tannehill's turnaround so incredible is how well he has performed with one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Already undermanned to begin with, the Dolphins have only grown thinner at this position after losing tackle Branden Albert to injury, forcing them to start Ja'Wuan James and Dallas Thomas at left and right tackle respectively. 

While the Dolphins have managed to win games since losing Albert, the early returns of this tackle tandem have been predictably disastrous. 

Player	Snaps in Pass Protection	Hurries	Hits	Sacks
Ja'Wuan James	425	20	9	2
Dallas Thomas	305	20	4	2

Both players are liabilities in protection, but Dallas Thomas, who is only in the lineup because of injuries, is particularly vulnerable on the right side. 

There is no need for Rex Ryan and his defensive staff to overthink this: The Jets have a massive matchup advantage against the Dolphins' offensive line, and they need to take advantage by simply lining up. Blitzing and sending extra players may be woven in Ryan's aggressive DNA, but there is no need to send help for Sheldon Richardson and Jason Babin against these two undermatched players. 

The Jets will have to work around one caveat in their plan with defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson likely out with a toe injury. Ryan hinted to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News that Quinton Coples will see plenty of playing time at defensive end, his position of origin when he was drafted in 2012:

By rushing only four rushers, the Jets can keep two safeties deep to protect against Mike Wallace and the downfield passing game, which the Jets' undermanned cornerbacks are sure to do. 

Ryan may very well want to go out in a ball of fire and blitz on every down, but if winning is truly the No. 1 priority, he needs to place his bet on where he has the best personnel advantage. 

Test Geno Smith

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In what has become the most irrelevant quarterback controversy in football, Geno Smith will make his not-so-triumphant return to the starting lineup this week, the team announced. 

While the Jets have already made up their mind as to whether Smith will be their long-term answer at the position by benching him in the first place, this final month of the season may be Smith's last opportunity to prove he is even worth developing at this point. 

As NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported, the Jets had to go to extreme measures to cater to Smith's inability to process information, dumbing down his reads to extreme simplicity:

With nothing to lose in a lost season, the Jets need to treat Smith as if he was any other starter, making him go through progressions on the fly and make fast decisions like any NFL starter needs to be able to. Besides, what do the Jets stand to gain by having Geno make passes as if he were a human JUG machine?

The Jets should not be using many designed runs, Wildcat or other "gimmicky" ways to move the football and get the Jets out of a jam. On 3rd-and-8 with the game on the line, Smith needs to prove he can move the ball like a professional pocket passer who can last in the long term.

Against a quality Dolphins defense, this will be a tough test for Smith to pass, especially after spending the better part of a month on the bench. However, if he can finish the season strong enough, perhaps the Jets will hold off on throwing him aside as nothing more than roster space next year. 

Stick with the Run

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As much as the Jets would love to see Smith finally take over and win a game on his own, they are still in the business of winning football games—although one could hardly tell watching last week's debacle. As Ryan noted in Wednesday's press conference (via Kimberly A. Martin of Newsday), running the ball is just about the only thing the Jets have flashed the ability to do well all season:

The problem is, the Jets have not been nearly as committed to their sole offensive strength through the season as they should have. Chris Ivory has never had more than 21 attempts this season—when he did, he totaled 107 yards against the New England Patriots. 

Constantly playing from behind has certainly forced the Jets away from their run-first roots, but Marty Mornhinweg has had a tendency to drift away from a successful running game far too soon.

According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Ivory has 81 first-half carries all season, almost double his second-half total of 49—but even his first-half average is just over 7.3 carries per game. 

Other teams have caught on to this tendency, playing defenses that favor pass defense over run defense, as Rich Cimini of ESPN notes:

The evidence for this tendency is in plain sight. On this five-yard rush from Ivory, the Bills are sitting in a Cover 2-style defense before the snap. The Jets win just about every facet of this play, yet they all but abandoned the run before the game even got out of hand. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

As much as Mornhinweg loves to throw the ball all over the yard, it is nonsensical at this point to not put the ball in the hands of the best players on the team while allowing the offensive line to do just about the only thing it does adequately: run block.

Unfortunately for the Jets, if Mornhinweg does finally realize his mistake of not being more run-heavy all season, it will be too late to make any difference in the outcome of their season. 

For the remainder of this season, the Jets will make more headlines off the field than on while they sort out the inevitable changes that are headed for this embarrassing 2-9 squad. However, the coaches and players who are doomed for departure can at least end the season on a satisfactory note by ruining the playoff dreams of their division rival, sparing their resume while they still have a chance. 

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