Jay Gruden's Washington Redskins Tenure Will Hinge on RG3 Benching

If you're the cautious type, you wouldn't appreciate the way Jay Gruden plays poker. The first-year Washington Redskins head coach has gone all-in. He's shoved his chips to the center of the table on a decision that will determine his fate in D.C.

Buried beneath that pile of chips is the crumpled body of Robert Griffin III, the onetime franchise quarterback Gruden has won a power struggle with for the right to ditch.

Once the dust clears from Gruden's not too surprising but maybe a little early call to bench Griffin, per ESPN reporter Adam Schefter, one of two things will happen.

Gruden could emerge looking like a determined young coach, one tough enough to bend the will of owner Dan Snyder and save a franchise from a divisive and deeply flawed bad investment.

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That's scenario A. For many it's the dream scenario. The problem is it could be contingent on Colt McCoy, the former 21-game starter who never made the grade with the Cleveland Browns.

The nightmare scenario could be lurking behind door No. 2. That's the scenario that plays out like this: Gruden pulled the plug too early on RG3, forever removing any chance of making things work between the Redskins and the quarterback they gave up two first-round picks and a second-rounder to draft in 2012.

Only time and, more importantly, results will let fans in Washington know how Gruden's gamble pays off. Because make no mistake, dumping Griffin is a major roll of the dice.

At this point, let's have a little clarification. I'm not a fan of Robert Griffin III as a quarterback. Never have been, never will be.

My concerns about him trace back to the pre-2012 NFL draft process. They were rooted in feeling the trade price was too high, as well as worries over his lack of experience and comfort with a Pro-style offense.

That latter concern prompted me to endorse drafting Ryan Tannehill at No. 6 and avoid engaging in a bidding war. More pertinently, it prompted an argument for Andrew Luck, ultimately taken one pick before Griffin, as the better choice for Washington's offense.

To me, the decision to call time on Griffin has always been coming. Yet, this lowly scribe wasn't hired this offseason with a remit to make Griffin a better quarterback. The younger Gruden certainly was, as ESPN.com Redskins reporter John Keim made clear at the time.

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By giving up on what was admittedly always going to be a large-scale project so soon, Gruden has put himself under no small amount of pressure. Whatever Griffin's failings as an NFL quarterback—and there are a couple of volumes worth—he's only started five games for Gruden.

He's finished just four due to the ankle injury that claimed a significant portion of his third season during Week 2's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Of course, the Redskins have lost every game Griffin has started and finished this season.

In a bottom-line culture, that's not good. In fact, it's fatal, as Griffin has learned this week. But four full starts is still a small sample size for Gruden to have made what appears to be a definitive judgement.

It's a definitive judgement on a player the front office and Snyder reportedly like:

Gruden has essentially told the man who hired him that not only can he not get that toy he loves to work, but he's going to throw it in the trash. Gruden also appears to have denied himself a lifeboat by slamming the door on Griffin, per NFL.com Media Insider Albert Breer:

Actually, he's jammed an oar into the side of that lifeboat and left a big, ugly puncture. It's one his career as a head coach might leak through.

Here's why dumping Griffin now should make even the most brazen chancer flinch. If Griffin still has the backing of the front office, then surely acquiring more data to help make a case that he's not up to it would be the smart play.

With his team at 3-8, Gruden has that opportunity. The Redskins aren't going to the playoffs, so they can probably afford to indulge in the dreaded "evaluation period" at their most important position.

To his credit, Gruden obviously wants to win, and the idea of writing off the rest of this season clearly doesn't sit well with him. That's a fine quality in a head coach, but in this case it may be a little short-sighted.

The decision regarding Griffin isn't just about this season. It's about the 10 that follow it.

It's about finding a way to put an end to a prolonged cycle of bad decisions and losing that just has to stop. It's about restoring a three-time Super Bowl-winning franchise, one representing the nation's capital, to where it should be—among the league's elite.

Now, you can give McCoy five games, 15 games or 50, but he's never going to do those things. Maybe Gruden gets lucky and McCoy wins all five of Washington's final games and the team finishes 8-8.

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Then Gruden will look like a genius, McCoy will be ready to go next season, while perhaps a new rookie learns from the sideline. Of course, all that's possible, but you might just as well wait on Griffin winning the league's passing title.

What if McCoy—who, in fairness, is 2-0 as a starter this season—can't rescue the sinking ship that is year one under Gruden? What if he only wins once, maybe twice or perhaps even not at all?

In that event, it won't be critical fans or a doubting media Gruden will have to worry about. His main concern will be Snyder.

If the owner finds himself staring at another 3-13 record, the exact same finish previous head coach Mike Shanahan managed, he's unlikely to look too kindly on the man who convinced him to ditch the supposed franchise quarterback.

In fact, he's more likely to think: "Not only have you failed to do what I hired you for, but this team is as bad as it was before you arrived. And to top it off, you've burned bridges with the face of the franchise."

Don't fool yourself into thinking those bridges haven't been reduced to ash. Make no mistake, Griffin isn't coming back from this. At least not in a burgundy and gold uniform. How could he?

After being benched when he's healthy, he won't feel the trust if the same coach who's sent him to the lumber suddenly decides he needs him back. He won't feel the trust of the front office and owner who are supposed to have his back, whether he merits that support and faith or not.

Griffin won't come back from this, and Gruden won't want him to. In his initial report, Schefter suggested sitting Griffin doesn't rule out a bright future for the Baylor alum in D.C.:

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While Griffin is not a part of Washington's plan for Sunday's game, he still appears to be a significant part of the Redskins' long-term plan, per another source.

Yet right now, Washington is hitting the reset button, though it might not last long, a source cautioned. Washington has high hopes for the coming off-season.

"

But those platitudes just don't wash in this case. Griffin's been publicly and mercilessly critiqued by Gruden, who can't take those words back no matter how hard he's tried.

Now that same coach has benched Griffin, the damage to their relationship is likely irreparable.

Gruden has put it all on himself. So be careful, Jay. The boss may have backed you now, but the fickle hand of authority could easily come crashing down if what you've sold him doesn't work.

Of course, Gruden may feel aggrieved about what he was sold this offseason. The Redskins wanted the former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, but was he even the right choice?

If the main focus was fixing Griffin, a noted read-option quarterback, why hire a coach who dislikes the read-option? An assistant like Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell—who interviewed with the team and runs an offense based on read-option principles that's helped young, dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson become a star—seems more suitable.

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The Gruden-Griffin partnership was never going to work in this context, as Sports Illustrated writer Doug Farrar has pointed out:

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In a new offense that often required him to stay in the pocket and make multiple reads, Griffin appeared lost, constantly under pressure, and unable to carry the team. This season, he's completed 83 of 119 passes for 869 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He's also been sacked 20 times in this short season, when he was taken down 30 times in his rookie year and 38 times in 2013.

"

It's decisions like matching an abrasive coach who believes in pro-style, pocket-passing with a sensitive, read-option quarterback that have kept this franchise stuck in the mud for nearly a quarter of a century.

Ending this ill-fated union is the right move. But by doing it now, Gruden should be under no illusion about the pressure he's put himself under.

He's essentially saying his schemes aren't the problem, it's the quarterback. Another tweet from Breer made that clear:

Gruden may have a point. It might even be a view shared by many prominent members of the Washington offense.

Star wide receiver Pierre Garcon certainly seemed far from happy after the Griffin-led passing game had mustered just 106 yards during Week 12's 17-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Garcon wasn't shy about expressing his disappointment, per Mike Jones of The Washington Post:

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Oh we had a lot of opportunities to score. We weren’t taking none. Being conservative. That’s what it is.

Maybe throw to the receivers. Throw to the receivers. That’ll fix the problem, especially down in the red zone.

"

Gruden then agreed with Garcon's critique of the passing game, per another report from Jones:

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You get paid to play wide receiver. You get paid to catch balls and they’re not catching the balls they’re accustomed to catching. We’ve just got to find out ways to get them the ball.

"

Again, Gruden may have a point, but now he has to prove it. Benching the source of passes that have been going anywhere but to him might make Garcon happy, and perhaps even fellow receiver DeSean Jackson.

There's no doubt Washington has been wasting one of the best arrays of weapons in the NFL this season. Garcon and Jackson are game-winning playmakers. Third receiver Andre Roberts is intelligent, versatile and productive.

Tight ends Niles Paul and Jordan Reed are talented "move" weapons. Meanwhile, Alfred Morris, Roy Helu Jr. and Darrel Young form the backbone of a running game that can dominate.

Gruden has made sure we'll find out if a competent quarterback is all that's been missing. That's a risk for a coach whose Bengals offenses ranked 20th, 22nd and 10th, respectively, in his three seasons calling the plays.

Steve Woltmann/Associated Press

Of course, now Gruden's got to prove he can build a whole team around his offensive system. He's got to prove that a failing quarterback he didn't draft, one who was forced upon him, has wrecked the start of that process.

Don't worry, Jay, I believe you. But it's not my vote you need now. You'll need patience. But that quality will be in short supply if Gruden still can't build a winner without a Griffin-shaped dilemma blighting his efforts.

If he can, Gruden will enter Washington Redskins history as the coach who rescued this franchise from an embarrassing misstep. The coach who made sure the humiliation would be brief, but not terminal.

But if Gruden can't deliver without Griffin, he shouldn't expect to stay in this job much longer.