Updated Odds for Atlanta Braves to Achieve Each of Their Offseason Goals

Earlier this offseason, I took a look at the expected offseason goals of the Atlanta Braves and assigned odds for each of them to come to fruition. With the Hot Stove League now a month old, let's take a look at how those guesses are doing.

The three biggest goals I identified for the team this winter were to find top-of-the-rotation starting pitching, decide who to trade among their outfielders and to figure out who plays second base.

The Braves seem to be well on their way to answering many of these questions.

A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher

Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang are both free agents, and the team needs to replace their spots in the rotation while not having any obvious internal candidates.

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Odds Braves make a trade for another starting pitcher

This one has come to pass as the team acquired Shelby Miller from the St. Louis Cardinals. Atlanta still needs to fill one more spot, and it seems like a very real possibility that there will be another trade. I set the original odds for this at 4-1, which was a bit too conservative. I underestimated the Braves’ desire to add to their starting pitching staff above all else. Perhaps they will use another trade to continue to add to their staff.

Updated odds: 3-1

Odds Santana returns

The likelihood of Santana coming back seems to be getting lower with each passing day. The original odds were 3-1, which were way too optimistic.

Updated odds: 10-1

Odds Braves sign a free-agent starting pitcher

After trading for Miller, the Braves surprised everyone by meeting with Jon Lester. While it still seems like a long shot that Lester could come south, or that the Braves would meet his exorbitant price, that doesn’t mean that another lower-cost free agent like Justin Masterson or Brandon McCarthy could fall into the team’s price range. I put the previous odds at 10-1, and even with the recent talk about Lester, I don’t think those odds should come down too much.

Updated odds: 8-1

Upton and Upton and Heyward, goodbye

The Braves shocked much of the baseball world when they sent Jason Heyward packing in the first blockbuster trade of the offseason. It seems almost a foregone conclusion that Justin Upton will be the next one out the door.

Let’s take a look at the options I set forth a month ago and see where they’re at now.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Odds B.J. Upton gets traded

While everyone in the baseball world knows that the Braves want to trade B.J., they also know that no team wants him. ESPN columnist Jayson Stark recently wrote that Atlanta was telling teams inquiring about Justin Upton that they’d have to take B.J. as well. Apparently that didn’t get much traction. My original odds for a B.J. trade were at 3-1, but with other outfielders like Matt Kemp apparently on the trade market, teams don’t have to be so desperate for a hitter like Justin that they’d also take B.J.

Updated odds: 9-1

Odds Heyward gets traded

I put this at 3-1 a month ago, and that was a good guess as it turned out. My guess was the return would be two blue-chip prospects, and Atlanta might have done better, getting an established major league pitcher and a former top-100 prospect on the rebound in Tyrell Jenkins.

Odds Justin Upton gets traded

The original odds for this were set at 4-1, and knowing what we know now, I’d put them even lower. It’s not quite a certainty that he’ll get moved since the asking price in return is apparently more than that of Heyward, but Atlanta seems committed to rebuilding, and there’s too much to be gained in that department by moving Upton.

Updated odds: 2-1

Who’s on second?

The Braves also moved quickly this offseason to remove some of the competition for the second base job. Tommy La Stella was shipped off to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for reliever Arodys Vizcaino. The Braves also released utility infielder Ramiro Pena, another possible contender for time at second.

That leaves the remaining candidates for the job in a better position. Let’s take a look at the remaining options—Tyler Pastornicky, Phil Gosselin and Jose Peraza—and see what their updated odds look like.

Odds it’s Pastornicky

Not many people are talking about him as an option this winter, but it certainly seems that he has a good chance to make the team as at least a utility infielder now that Pena is gone. I previously put his odds at 3-1, and I don’t think they’ve slipped too much from there.

Updated odds: 3-1

Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images

Odds it’s Gosselin

The trade of La Stella helped Gosselin as much as anyone on the team. His odds were previously at 6-1, but have improved tremendously, and are probably on par with those of Pastornicky.

Updated odds: 3-1

Odds it’s Peraza

His odds, previously at 11-1, have improved, but I still believe that he needs more time in the minors and will get that time with the presence of Gosselin and Pastornicky.

Updated odds: 8-1

Odds it’s someone outside the organization

There is also the possibility that the Braves will sign a free agent or acquire another player in a trade to man second base (until Peraza is ready). Those odds were previously at 15-1, but with La Stella and Pena departing, the odds have come down.

Updated odds: 9-1