Buckeyes on Cusp of Special Season Entering Game Against Michigan

Michigan week has arrived, and it could not come at a better time for Ohio State.

Back-to-back closer-than-expected games against Indiana and Minnesota might have some wondering if the team is distracted by all the talk about playoffs, J.T. Barrett's Heisman chances and whether Braxton Miller will return next season. For one week at least, the sole focus is on beating the team up North.

Despite some grumblings among fans about what is wrong, the problem is not a lack of talent or coaching. This team is littered with elite-level players. It also has some of the best coaches in the business.

I would argue that if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten, this will be considered Urban Meyer’s greatest coaching performance of his tremendous career. That is a testament to all of his assistant coaches, including public enemy No. 1, defensive co-coordinator Luke Fickell.

Regardless, there is no doubt that the defense has looked vulnerable, especially against the run. Turnovers and special teams miscues are also impacting momentum during key parts of the game.

All things considered, the issues are not huge problems. Every team has flaws this season, and since the meltdown against Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes have taken care of business. Expecting perfection is unrealistic, but who says anyone in Buckeye Nation is reasonable?

Most fans want championships, and Meyer is paid to win them.  Ohio State is on the brink of accomplishing something really special. Pressure is mounting to finish the job the team failed to do last year. It is time to earn the paycheck.

Here are three reasons why the Buckeyes will beat Michigan and win the Big Ten title next week.

Leadership

The reality is the recent breakdowns are a result of a lack of discipline, which is what you would expect from a young team. It plays well for a stretch of time and then falls apart for a few series.

Fortunately, discipline issues are solved by having great leaders. Every championship team has a band of players at its heart and soul. These players are the glue that binds the team in crunch time. They drive the team through adversity and will the team to victory.

This is the foundation of Meyer’s coaching philosophy which he described to reporters in his post-hiring press conference: "Talent will get you about seven or eight wins. Discipline will start pushing that to nine. Then when you get leadership that's when magic starts happening. It's when you start getting rings and some really cool things are happening to your team."

Every player must do his part over the next two games, but there will be moments when special plays are needed to seize control of the games. This is when the leaders will shine.

Which Buckeyes will step up when called? Odds are Vonn Bell, Michael Bennett, Jeff Heuerman, Devin Smith and Joshua Perry will. Whether it is an interception, a sack, a key reception, a touchdown or a combination, one or all of these players will rise to the occasion.

Avoiding Turnovers

On the season, Ohio State is plus-3 in turnover margin, which is abysmal. The Buckeyes’ turnovers have been daggers, killing momentum and putting unneeded pressure on the defense. The turnovers have also allowed inferior teams like Indiana and Penn State to compete with the Buckeyes when they should have had a minimal shot at winning.

Just as Jalin Marshall improved his performance last week, expect Barrett and the rest of the offensive weapons to do a much better job at protecting the ball over the next two games.

Helping their cause is that Michigan and Wisconsin are not very good at taking the ball away. The Wolverines are plus-14 in turnover margin, and the Badgers are minus-2. Minnesota is plus-11, so should it make the Big Ten Championship, Ohio State needs to hold on to the ball better than it did in Minneapolis on November 15.

Run Defense

The Buckeyes’ run defense was torched by Jeremy Langford, David Cobb and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 510 yards and nine touchdowns. All three of these backs are good, but giving up that kind of production is inexcusable.

Expect the coaches to have the defense playing at a much higher level against the run over the next two games.  At the very least, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota will make it easier on them since all three teams are taking passing to new lows this season. The chart below highlights how bad these teams are in the air:

Team	Passing Yards Per Game	FBS ranking
Michigan	162.8	113
Wisconsin	141.7	119
Minnesota	134.2	121

The formula for success against the run is not overly complicated. Ohio State should just load up the box and sell out to stop the run. The defensive line needs to clog the line of scrimmage and keep the big offensive linemen off the linebackers so they can make plays.

There also needs to be containment on the edges to force the runners back into the middle of the field. When this happens, Perry, Curtis Grant, Darron Lee and Raekwon McMillan need to shed their blockers and tackle well. If the defense does this effectively, the Buckeyes will comfortably win both games.

Analysis

When the College Football Playoff committee releases its rankings later today, Ohio State should remain No. 6.

Not many expected the team to be in this position after the loss to Virginia Tech, but now it is easy to understand why Meyer told reporters in a press conference on August 11: "If you had to say what's the difference between this team and last year's team, we're faster. It does have the feel of a very good team."

The Buckeyes are good, and this is now a two-game season for them. They must beat Michigan on Saturday and win the Big Ten championship next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota.

Nothing else matters.