Patriots vs. Packers: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

Over the past two months, the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers have clearly separated themselves as the NFL's best teams.  Since Week 5, the Pats and Packers are a combined 13-1 with point differentials over plus-100, according to Pro-Football-Reference.  No other team has a point differential better than plus-67 in that span, illustrating how Sunday's meeting is essentially a heavyweight championship fight.

How the Patriots arrived at this point has been remarkable.  New England has always prided itself on being deep and versatile, and contributions from unheralded veterans (Ryan Wendell, Dan Connolly), mid-level free-agent signings (Brandon LaFell, Brandon Browner) and midseason acquisitions (Akeem Ayers, LeGarrette Blount) have formed the perfect complementary storm to the Patriots' star core.

Of course, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick like to say that the season does not start until Thanksgiving, meaning that New England should not be peaking in earnest yet.  It's hard to fathom how the Patriots can improve on their recent form, but simply sustaining this level would keep the Pats in serious Super Bowl contention.

This Sunday's game will serve as a big litmus test for the Patriots against a team many see as their equal, but let's take a look at how the national media views New England right now, especially in relation to the Packers.

Mike Tanier: Blount Providing Late-Season Spark Plug

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Bill Belichick has always been excellent at making in-season schematic adjustments to tailor his personnel.  Part of those adjustments also entail midseason trades and acquisitions, as the Patriots are always among the busiest teams in flipping the middle and back ends of their roster.  As Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier opines, the Pats appear to have unearthed their annual hit in the form of old friend LeGarrette Blount: 

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Sometimes, the New England Patriots seem like the only franchise that is just trying to gain the small, necessary advantages needed to win a series of football games, rather than establish a "Great Society" built on the neo-Lombardian philosophical vision of some career defensive coordinator.

Blount's a pain in the rear, but if your team chemistry cannot handle five weeks of broken tackles on a work-for-hire basis, your team chemistry probably is not ready to handle a lot of things.

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Tanier's style is often full of sarcastic and self-aware hyperbole, but in this instance, he hits on New England's uncanny ability to ignore misconceptions and remain faithful to its own scouting opinions. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Blount led all backs with 3.02 yards after contact per attempt through the first 11 weeks.  In Week 12, Blount predictably once again led the league with 6.0 yards after contact per attempt.

Blount was never going to make a dent in the Pittsburgh Steelers' backfield after Le'Veon Bell's breakthrough, but in Foxborough, the enigmatic veteran has found an environment where he can thrive.  Blount was explicit in his excitement for a second Patriots tour, and while his overall volume will be limited with Shane Vereen and (perhaps) Jonas Gray also receiving carries, it is clear that the Blount-New England marriage is a fruitful one.

Field Yates: Amendola Future Cap Casualty?

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We'll return to the on-field analysis in a minute, but the team-building process never really stops, even during the season.  Honest self-scouting is indispensable for sustained success, and as ESPN's Field Yates suggests (subscription required), Danny Amendola may be on the chopping block by season's end:

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As far as Amendola's returner contributions, the team has Edelman and LeGarrette Blount as possible options on punts and kickoffs, respectively, but could also easily audition other players for that role. Unless Amendola agree to a reduced salary and amended contract, it's difficult to envision him back in New England next season.

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For now, Amendola appears superfluous with New England's current cast.  The sixth-year veteran is on pace for career-lows in virtually every receiving statistic, having accrued just 11 receptions for 95 yards through 11 games.  If the Patriots want another true slot receiver, someone like 2013 fourth-rounder Josh Boyce might be a cheaper and more promising developmental option.

More importantly, Amendola's scheduled $5.58 cap hit is perhaps the most overpriced on New England's books for 2015.  The Patriots would not save much money—just a shade under $2 million—by cutting Amendola outright.  More importantly, he would still inflict $3.6 million in dead money on the 2015 cap.  That lost space on the margins matters when the likes of Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and Shane Vereen hit free agency (not to mention a possible extension for Nate Solder).

The Patriots could designate Amendola as a post-June 1 cut and spread out his cap hit over two years.  Based on Amendola's contract info at Spotrac, his 2015 hit would be $1.2 million, but he would remain on the 2016 books at $2.4 million.

Amendola has been a good soldier despite difficult times, so it would be hardly surprising to see the Patriots extend an offer.  Nevertheless, the veteran is a bit player at this point and one who could be marginalized if the Patriots decide to develop a cheaper young receiver in his stead.

Johnny Rumford: Run-Heavy vs. Packers?

via Statmilk.com

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Smart game plan for NE (at GB)? Power run with Gray & Blount. Keep Rodgers off the field, limit Brady deep shots (that have been ineffective

— Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) November 25, 2014"

The Patriots offense has been a veritable chameleon over the past three games, shifting from a shotgun spread pass-heavy approach against the Denver Broncos to run-oriented power personnel against the Indianapolis Colts and back again last week.

Once again, the Pats may very well shift back to their offensive game plan from two weeks ago.  According to Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric, the Packers rank just 22nd against the run. With one of the league's rangiest and most well-rounded secondaries, it's clear that the ground is the least path of resistance against Green Bay.

However, this isn't as simple as utilizing an extra O-lineman and running Power-O over and over again, as the Pats did against Indy. The holes have been less gaping since Clay Matthews' shift to inside linebacker three weeks ago, as the Packers have conceded just 3.5 yards per attempt over that time period, eighth-best in the league.  If Green Bay can contain the likes of Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy, it has no significant weakness.

Still, this is not necessarily reason to despair for New England, as game situation dictated that Chicago and Philly abandon the run, thus minimizing their All-Pro backs.  Assuming Cameron Fleming is not ready to return from the ankle injury he suffered at the end of the Colts game, look for Marcus Cannon to receive some snaps as an eligible tight end in six-linemen looks, with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray likely to see more combined snaps than passing back Shane Vereen.

Tom Kessenich: Where to Put Revis?

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

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Revis on Nelson or Cobb next Sunday? Not an easy decision for Belichick by any means. #Patriots #Packers

— Tom Kessenich (@TomKessenich) November 24, 2014"

One of the Patriots' most helpful aspects is their ability to match up against virtually any receiving corps with their deep secondary.  However, few opponents possess the one-two punch of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, as the Pats are essentially defending two true No. 1 receivers.

Last week's defensive game plan may have provided a hint as to Belichick's inclinations this week.  Against a similar duo of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, Belichick planted Revis on Detroit's shifty slot receiver while utilizing Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty in bracket coverage on Megatron.  Green Bay lines up Nelson and Cobb in similar alignments, so last Sunday would suggest a Revis vs. Cobb and Browner/McCourty vs. Nelson matchup against Green Bay.

However, Johnson is more of a physical brute whose size was not as advantageous against Browner as it typically is against the league's normal-sized corners.  Conversely, Nelson is a route-running demon who, along with Antonio Brown, creates better separation than virtually any receiver in the league.  Thus, the technically impeccable Revis might be a better skills matchup against Nelson.

Regardless, there isn't really a right answer.  Aaron Rodgers has compiled a 148.3 and 125.3 quarterback rating when targeting Cobb and Nelson, respectively, which are the two best marks in the entire league for individual receivers.  As well as the Patriots have done the past three games in shutting down elite receiving corps, the Packers present a challenge on a whole different level. 

Aaron Schatz: Pats Are Super Bowl Favorites

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Sunday's matchup is widely viewed as a potential Super Bowl preview.  However, as Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz notes in the site's updated playoff projections (via ESPN Insider, subscription required), the Pats currently stand as decisive Super Bowl favorites:

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Now we have New England as our favorite to win Super Bowl XLIX. In part, it's because the Patriots have the best record in the NFL for the first time all season. It's also because our weighted DVOA metric now has the Patriots with their highest rating of the season and No. 2 in the league, only slightly behind Denver. The Patriots' two losses are now two months in the rearview mirror, and they had their best single-game DVOA of the season in last weekend's 34-9 win over Detroit.

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Schatz notes that 18.7 percent of season simulations have the Pats hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, with Denver and Green Bay close behind at 17.0 percent and 14.5 percent, respectively.  Part of that stems from New England's likelihood at earning homefield advantage, which currently stands at 46.4 percent, per FO.

In truth, the Patriots are going to remain among the small handful of favorites so long as Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Revis remain healthy.  Brady is the obvious lynchpin, while Gronk and Revis are among the two most versatile mismatches in the entire league.  Every Patriots game plan centers on those three inimitable stars, so losing any of the trio would drastically alter New England's approach.

Sunday's result isn't going to alter that truth.  Unlike the previous high-profile games the Patriots have played this season, the Packers game is not a referendum on their level of legitimacy but rather an opportunity to reinforce their status as arguably the league's top Super Bowl favorite.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).