College Football Playoff Predictions 2014: Projecting NCAA Field After Week 13
Week 13 was supposed to be the calm before the proverbial college football storm. Instead, several of college football's top teams found themselves riding the waves to survive.
Florida State once again showed that their ability to slide through the first three quarters of games is unparalleled. Just one week after needing every minute of game time to come back on the road against Miami, the Noles beat the Boston College Eagles on a last-second field goal to remain undefeated on the season.
They weren't the only team who didn't quite live up to expectations, though. Ohio State was a massive favorite over Indiana, but you wouldn't have known it by watching the game. Crucial mistakes and turnovers kept Indiana in the game before the Buckeyes were able to pull away in the end.
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However, college football is truly a game of survive and advance. When it was all said and done, there was very little impact made on the projected field. Here's a complete look at the projections based on current rankings, the schedule that lies ahead for these teams and current level of play:
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State | Alabama |
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State | Oregon |
| Championship Bowl | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon | Oregon |
The Locks: Oregon and Alabama
It's difficult to call anything in college football a lock. A quick look at the scores across the country could tell you that.
But it would be shocking to see any of these three teams on the outside looking in when the committee makes the final decision on the first-ever playoff field.
Both Alabama and Oregon have shone in conferences that have been known for tightly contested games this season. As Bryan Fischer notes, the two conferences have the most games decided by a touchdown or less all season:
Yet, in leagues full of parity, both teams have stood out. Their wins have been impressive. Their losses have been "excusable." In terms of dominance, the metrics love them. Alabama and Oregon are Nos. 1 and 2 respectively, according to Football Outsiders' FEI-plus metric.
Add in the fact that both teams still have big games in which they can prove themselves, and it wouldn't be shocking to see them end the season as the nation's top two teams.
Most Likely in Next: Florida State and Ohio State
For Florida State, it's simple. There's no way the committee won't allow an undefeated defending champion in the first playoff. It doesn't matter how poor the schedule or how close the games are. It doesn't even matter what the metrics say (the Noles aren't doing so well on Ed Feng's Power Rank Metric). All Florida State has to do is beat Florida and win the ACC Championship Game to get in.
Ohio State, on the other hand, isn't as sure a thing as the Noles, but it's getting closer. A 14-point loss to Virginia Tech at home looms large, but fewer teams have exerted as much "game control" throughout the season as the Buckeyes since then.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Buckeyes are now statistically creeping closer to TCU for the fourth spot and even have better odds to win the National Championship:
Of course, all of that is dependent on beating Michigan in the upcoming rivalry game and winning the Big Ten title game, most likely against Wisconsin. Urban Meyer won't let his players look ahead, telling The Associated Press via ESPN: "We're conference division champions, we've won a bunch of games (nine) in a row... We have some work to do. Sometimes in college football, things don't go exactly as scripted."
Things may not always go exactly as scripted, but if they do, the conference title game could be the difference. Neither Mississippi State, TCU nor Baylor will have the advantage of participating in one.
On the Bubble: Mississippi State, TCU and Baylor
Yes, Mississippi State and TCU are currently ranked ahead of projected four seed Ohio State. But, as mentioned previously, the major difference could come down to the lack of a conference championship game appearance for both schools.
TCU has a little less control over that. The Big 12 can't have one because it doesn't have 12 teams. However, Mississippi State will most likely be held out of its conference title game due to its loss to Alabama.
The problem for both teams—and Baylor by extension—is a lack of opportunities to make yet another statement.
TCU has Texas next on the docket. Unfortunately, Texas' reputation hasn't caught up with how well it's been playing recently. The Longhorns are unranked but are riding a three-game winning streak into the game, with all three wins coming by two scores or more. The Frogs then finish out with Iowa State.
Baylor and Mississippi State both watched their "statement" games take a hit in recent weeks. Kansas State lost big against TCU, while Ole Miss laid an egg against 6-5 Arkansas.
Regardless of what system college football uses to crown its champion, there's always going to be some recency bias. Unfortunately for Mississippi State, TCU and Baylor, their schedule isn't going to give them the opportunity to sprint to the finish line.
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