Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 12 Preview for New England
After dominating the top two fellow AFC contenders, the New England Patriots are riding high. They are universally considered a top Super Bowl contender and look like heavy favorites to earn home-field advantage this postseason.
However, that assumption rests on the belief that the Pats sustain their current dominance. The schedule does not let up, beginning this week with a matchup against the Detroit Lions and their No. 1 defense. Defensively, the Lions possess a similar makeup to that of the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs—the two teams to defeat New England this season—so the Patriots' surging offense must remain on its toes.
Offensively, the Lions present one of the game's most exciting passing attacks, with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate forming one of the league's elite duos. The Patriots have faced a pair of MVP-caliber quarterbacks the past two weeks, and while he does not possess that kind of resume, Matthew Stafford and his increasingly healthy supporting cast present a similar level of challenge.
For full analysis of Sunday's most important players, matchups and game factors, read on to see how the Patriots can extend their winning streak to seven.
Week 11 Recap
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With the Pats going into Lucas Oil Stadium against a rising Indianapolis Colts team, a loss would have been understandable. However, for the second consecutive meeting, the Patriots rammed the ball through Indy's undersized front seven, as Jonas Gray bruised his way into the national consciousness with 201 yards and four touchdowns.
The Patriots utilized power personnel (12 and 22), often bringing tackle Cameron Fleming in as an eligible tight end. New England ended up running the ball 44 times compared to 30 dropbacks for Tom Brady—a throwback play-calling balance that brought back memories of the end of the 2013 campaign.
However, expect a radically different game plan against Detroit. The Lions are Football Outsiders' top-ranked run defense by DVOA, and quite frankly, it is extremely difficult to imagine New England's agile but relatively small interior handling the monstrous Ndamukong Suh. This may bear a closer resemblance to the Week 7 game against the New York Jets, in which New England relied on shotgun spread formations and three-receiver personnel to work around Gang Green's terrific defensive line.
Defensively, the Patriots continued to shadow by receiver type. Darrelle Revis and Kyle Arrington performed admirably on Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, respectively, but both figure to receive big upgrades in competition against Megatron and Tate. The perimeter represents the greatest strength for both the Lions offense and Patriots defense, making this a must-see matchup on Sunday.
One factor that could tilt that battle in New England's favor is the continued excellence against the run. After experiencing some bumps in run defense following Jerod Mayo's season-ending injury, the Patriots have since held the Denver Broncos and Colts to a combined 62 yards rushing the past two weeks. The Lions backfield has struggled behind constantly shuffling O-line personnel, so this looks like another winnable matchup for the Patriots.
News and Notes
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Blount's Contract
"Blount signed a two-year deal worth up to $2.35M, per source. He gets the prorated minimum this year and up to $1.6M w/ incentives in '15.
— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) November 20, 2014"
LeGarrette Blount's return to Foxborough drew most of the midweek headlines, as few teams mix up their backfield after a 244-yard rushing performance. Nevertheless, given the success Blount had last season, as well as New England's familiarity with his enigmatic personality, this looks like a low-risk acquisition.
Blount had been marginalized in Pittsburgh after Le'Veon Bell's breakout sophomore campaign, with just 28 rushing attempts over the past month. However, when given the opportunity, Blount has done well; according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), his whopping 3.02 yards after contact per attempt leads all running backs who have received at least 25 percent of their team's carries.
Indeed, by all indications, Blount is the same bruising back with underrated vision who became New England's lead back at the end of 2013. The two-year contract also provides an additional layer of insurance in the event that one or both of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen depart in free agency. If Blount can replicate his form from last season, the Patriots will have landed yet another cheap steal in the backfield.
Easley Progressing
Dominique Easley has had a slow start to his rookie year—a predictable byproduct of missing most of training camp while recovering from a torn ACL from his final collegiate season. However, after the rookie posted his best game of the season last Sunday, Bill Belichick highlighted Easley's progress in the run game, per ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss, in his weekly film session:
"The play came in the second quarter, with running back Trent Richardson dropped for a loss of 3 yards (9:17). A crucial effort came from Easley, who pressed tight end Coby Fleener back and re-created the line of scrimmage. Belichick also noted the strong run force from cornerback Darrelle Revis on left tackle Anthony Castonzo.
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'Easley does a nice job here, knocking it back,' Belichick said.
Though the stat sheet looks barren, with just one sack and six tackles on the season, Easley has provided above-average production at right defensive end in Chandler Jones' stead. Over the past three games, Easley has posted a cumulative plus-2.5 grade on PFF, which includes five quarterback pressures. As he continues to shake the rust off after missing most of the preseason, look for Easley to make a late-season jump, much like Jamie Collins did last year.
Detroit RBs an X-Factor?
Most of the pub surrounding Detroit's offense revolves around Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the passing game. However, Vince Wilfork's job has always made him the focal point of the opposing running game, and the big nose tackle sees the Lions backfield as an underrated asset, per the Boston Herald's Adam Kurkjian:
"They're a very, very explosive team. On the ground they haven't really done much, but I'm pretty sure that will get going soon. They stick to their guns. Bell is a big back. We have a little history with 21 (Bush) over there. So we know what it's going to take. We know they're going to come here ready to play. They're going to give us a hell of a fight. They're going to come here ready to play and we have to be ready for them.
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There's certainly a degree of lip service there, as Detroit's 3.2 yards-per-carry average ranks third-worst in the league. However, the Lions backs have proved dangerous through the air, as both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick rank among the top 15 running backs in Football Outsiders' receiving DVOA. Wilfork and the rest of the interior line should experience success, but the screen game is still an important factor to watch.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT | Out |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Out |
| Marcus Cannon | OT | Questionable |
| Nate Ebner | S | Questionable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Probable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
Cameron Fleming was the one major casualty from the victory over the Colts, as the reserve tackle went down with an ankle injury late in the fourth quarter. Schechter noted that Fleming was walking around in the locker room with a boot, which is likely an ominous sign for his availability this weekend.
The Pats are unlikely to go with the same heavy personnel against a stout Detroit front seven, but upcoming contests against shaky San Diego and Green Bay run defenses could heighten the importance of Fleming's absence. Marcus Cannon's addition to the report with a hip injury also reflects some thinning along the bookends of the line, although the severity of Cannon's ailment is unclear.
Elsewhere, it's status quo along the defensive line, as Jones is not close to a return, while Easley continues to receive in-season maintenance days to manage his fatigue. Edelman is a new addition to the report, as he landed awkwardly along the sidelines and rotated in for the rest of the game. His status may be the most concerning to monitor, but otherwise, the Patriots remain healthy heading into the stretch run.
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5Darrelle Revis vs. Calvin Johnson
Revis vs. Megatron is as quality a one-on-one matchup as one could conjure in the entire league. Regardless of your rooting interest, take a moment on Sunday to appreciate the masterful nuances, technique and sheer physical tools of both players, who are among the premier perimeter players of their generation.
As for the matchup, the Patriots will gladly concede the slants and digs that Johnson likes to run if Revis can cap his deep-ball productivity. New England has been surprisingly shoddy in its deep-ball coverage this season, conceding 38 pass plays of 20 or more yards, per Pro-Football-Reference, fifth-most in the league. In fairness, the Pats are giving up the fourth-fewest yards per play on such completions, which seems to indicate a lot of 20- and 25-yard completions rather than 60-yard daggers.
Nevertheless, Johnson will be aiming for the latter, and the Patriots figure to shade some safety help toward Revis. Megatron has actually declined a bit in deep-ball productivity this season, as his 33.3 percent catch rate on passes of 20-plus yards ranks 16th out of 28 qualified receivers. It's very possible that early-season ankle woes deflated that mark, however, as his leaping touchdown against the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago seemed to imply.
Stafford is not nearly as dependent on Johnson as he has been, due to Golden Tate's arrival and more tight end utilization. Nevertheless, Johnson is also Detroit's best (and perhaps only) bet to take the top off New England's defense—a task that opposing offenses have found difficult since September.
Rob Gronkowski vs. DeAndre Levy
Gronk is the Patriots' version of Megatron, the irrepressible target who overwhelms no matter how many resources an opposing defense commits. With uber-athletic linebacker DeAndre Levy, however, the Lions are one of the few teams who can at least present a reasonable counter to the Pats' All-Pro tight end.
Following Stephen Tulloch's season-ending torn ACL, Levy has broken out while taking on expanded responsibilities. Apart from perhaps Lavonte David or Luke Kuechly, there is not a more versatile linebacker in the league; Levy is capable of rushing the passer, stuffing the run, providing sideline-to-sideline range and, most importantly this week, dropping into coverage.
Opponents have an extremely high completion percentage against Levy, hitting 49 of 64 passes for a 76.6 percent completion rate. However, just four of those completions have gone for more than 20 yards, which indicates that the damage is mostly from checkdowns, slants and flats rather than more damaging seam or post routes.
Levy is comfortable traveling away from the core of the formation and lining up like a corner, as he did against Jordy Nelson earlier this season. That may be his primary alignment on Sunday, as the Patriots figure to revert to a spread-heavy game plan to combat Detroit's strength and speed in the trenches. For once, however, Gronk will face a defender with nearly the same daunting combination of size, speed and athleticism.
Nate Solder vs. Ziggy Ansah
Though Ndamukong Suh gets most of the attention on Detroit's defense (and deservedly so), Ansah's breakout has been almost equally vital in the Lions' defensive excellence. The second-year defensive end was the quintessential raw talent dripping with upside, but unlike many of those projects, Ansah has quickly harnessed his natural physical tools to turn into a terrifying edge-rusher.
Among 4-3 defensive end, Ansah ranks third in pass-rushing productivity, having compiled 36 total pressures on the season. As he almost exclusively rushes from the defense's right side, Patriots left tackle Nate Solder should receive the bulk of the work against the speed-rusher.
Much like the rest of the offensive line, Solder has stabilized after a rough September. Since Week 5, he has allowed just 10 pressures in 227 pass-blocking snaps, registering a 96.6 percent pass-blocking efficiency rate that ranks seventh among all tackles in that span. Apart from some occasional troubles (mostly against Von Miller), Solder has been steady in stifling the likes of Mario Williams and Jared Allen.
Still, Ansah brings a rare quickness that could represent a bad matchup for the hulking left tackle. Speed has always been Solder's kryptonite, as his footwork can break down when the opposition is quick enough to avoid his hands. It is imperative that the Lions do not get a bead on Brady's snap count; otherwise, Solder and the rest of the line will face a nearly impossible task in blocking Detroit's front four.
X-Factor: Kyle Arrington
The much-maligned Arrington has quietly blossomed in a much more limited role this season. Though he did play some perimeter snaps in shadowing T.Y. Hilton last week, Arrington has mostly been confined to the slot this season, where his agility and tackling take precedence over his lack of top-end speed, size and ball skills.
This season, Arrington ranks third among all slot corners in cover snaps per reception conceded, right behind teammate Revis and Casey Hayward. Primarily covering Hilton and Wes Welker the past two games, Arrington has given up a grand total of three receptions on eight targets for 31 yards when targeted.
This week, Arrington will face arguably his toughest challenge in Detroit's Golden Tate. Tate has compiled 488 yards on 30 catches from the slot this season—a 1.98 yards per route run mark that ranks third among slot receivers this season, behind only Randall Cobb and Hilton.
Even with Johnson back in the lineup, Tate still moves around the formation. Over the last two weeks, Tate has run 54.5 percent of his routes from the slot, though that's still the highest mark on the team in that time. Regardless of where he goes, though, Arrington should follow, as he represents New England's best solution to Tate's slippery route breaks and run-after-the-catch ability.
Prediction
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At some point, a letdown is more likely than not. As much as we like to reduce football down to chalkboard and analytics analysis, there remains a very real human element that is difficult to battle through during the grind of the season.
Nevertheless, these Patriots have proved more consistent and mentally resilient than virtually any other team during the Belichick-Brady era. It's obvious that New England has evolved tremendously since its early-season struggles, but Detroit, with all its stylistic similarities to the Miami Dolphins defense, will provide tangible evidence of how far the Patriots offense has really progressed since Week 1.
Defensively, so long as the Patriots continue to thrive against the run in their "big nickel" package, with Patrick Chung in the box as a hybrid safety/linebacker, they should be able to cap the Lions passing game. Considering the difficulties Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck had when their offenses became one-dimensional, it is hard to envision Stafford alone carrying Detroit past New England's talented back seven.
At this point, it is foolhardy to bet against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Lions present as many matchup issues as any opponent does, especially on defense, but New England is currently on a roll that makes it the clear favorite against any team it faces.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Lions 22
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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