Why the Portland Trail Blazers Can Overcome C.J. McCollum's Injury
For as exciting as the Portland Trail Blazers have become, their success masks a sad statistical underbelly: In each of the past two seasons, the Blazers have finished dead last in raw bench production (per HoopsStats.com).
Now, with second-year sparkplug C.J. McCollum expected to miss at least a month with a fractured right index finger, Portland could be in danger of a three-peat. Trail Blazers PR noted the injury and a follow-up assessment in four weeks:
McCollum, who was taken with the 10th overall pick in the 2013 draft, is no stranger to early-season setbacks: During his rookie campaign last year, the former Lehigh standout missed the first six weeks recovering from a foot injury.
After playing sparingly through the remainder of the 2013-14 season, McCollum began to emerge as a viable fourth guard during Portland’s preseason slate, averaging 10 points on 42 percent shooting, including 35 percent from distance.
"CJ's looked really good in practice and really good in games. I think he's just a lot more comfortable now," Blazers point guard Damian Lillard told The Oregonian’s Mike Richman just days before the season began. "He's going to be a guy that can come in score the ball and make plays, handle the ball and take pressure off us guards. So I can see him coming in and really helping us."
Help off the bench is something Portland desperately needs, particularly after losing veteran super-sub Mo Williams to the Minnesota Timberwolves during free agency this past summer.
In Steve Blake, recently signed to a two-year tender, the Blazers boast a viable—if not spectacular—backup floor general.
The difference between the 34-year-old Blake and the younger, pluckier McCollum, though, is one of long-term dividends. Indeed, for all his troubles and struggles, McCollum’s value as a versatile combo guard cannot be discounted.
Whether it’s using his quickness to beat defenders off the dribble or draining triples off the catch-and-shoot, the 6’4” Ohio native gives head coach Terry Stotts the kind of rotational versatility he so desperately needs.
At least that’s the theory. Ask Blazer’s Edge’s Dave Deckard, however, the rush to anoint McCollum as some Jason Terry incarnate is as misguided as it is ignorant of history:
"Categorizing McCollum as a 6th Man assumes a framework that's becoming archaic except when applied to near-legendary bench contributors.
If the designation means "first guy off the bench", McCollum could certainly qualify soon but that designation would make him no more special than a handful of players on his team, nor more special than 30 handfuls of players around the league.
You can see where CJ would want the target aimed higher. If, on the other hand, we're suggesting that McCollum will have that unique Ginobili-Crawford-Terry (or dare we say Ricky Pierce/Eddie Johnson) effect, 38 games and fewer than 500 minutes might be a little soon to pull the trigger.
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There’s a sizable middle road to be had here, of course—a wide-lane boulevard between bench-scorer supreme on the one hand and a serviceable rotation player with reasonable upside on the other.
At 23 years old, McCollum is far from a finished product. What seems all but certain, however, is that his NBA fate is almost certainly as a shooting guard with point guard qualities and not the other way around.
According to 82games.com, only seven of the top 20 five-man units in which he was included a season ago featured McCollum at the off-guard. And while part of that had to do with pure positional need (the Blazers have long been shallow at shooting guard), Lillard’s rise, combined with Blake’s spot-steady game, all but guarantee more time at the 2 for McCollum upon his return.
In the meantime, Portland’s second unit will be operating on an even slimmer margin—that is, unless a Will Barton, Allen Crabbe or Thomas Robinson somehow emerges from the Blazers’ bench abyss.
Even when he brought back into the Blazers’ fold, McCollum will have an uphill battle in convincing Stotts the work he put in on the defensive end over the summer will continue paying dividends.
"The biggest difference between being on the court and not being on the court is defending," McCollum recently told CSNNW.com’s Aaron Fentress.
Per NBA.com (subscription required), McCollum registered the fourth lowest defensive rating (105.4) of any Blazer with more than 10 minutes per game logged a season ago.
The good news: Through 11 games this season, according to NBA.com, McCollum’s 88.4 DRtg was tops on the team. Small sample size and influence of teammates aside, Stotts has to be pleased with the progress.
While McCollum’s injury is bound to take a bite out of the Blazers’ already anemic bench, some significant silver linings remain. At 8-3, the Blazers are once again off to a hot start. They’re also one of only four teams currently in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are still All-Stars, Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum remain elite-caliber role players, and the Moda Center fans are still as raucous and ripe with revelry as ever.
All things considered, the Blazers are in about as good a place as they could hope to be: young, improving and with an eye on scaling another rung on the Western Conference ladder.
Losing McCollum won’t prevent Portland from taking that next step. At least not in the long term.
It's the wear and tear in the short term—to a rotation already vise tight and to a point guard the Blazers can't afford to burn out—that could prove a problem.
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