Direction and Future of Miami Heat Both Riding on 2014-15 NBA Season

The Miami Heat have a lot riding on the next two seasons.

No, they aren’t and won’t be title contenders—a fact of life Heat fans grew accustomed to during LeBron James’ stint in South Beach—but this is still a sensitive period in team history. The conditions that could give rise to the next Heat champion are being created now.

Despite a 6-5 record and a ceiling that probably isn’t much higher than 45 wins, there is quite a bit at stake for Miami. The key is the free-agent class of 2016.

That summer’s crop of available talent looks, at the moment, to be one of the strongest in recent history. It’s a group that could turn around a franchise, several franchises really, overnight. This is an area in which the Heat have some experience. And they appear poised to strike.

Owner Mickey Arison suggested as much this summer in an open letter to fans, per the Miami Herald’s Joseph Goodman.

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We are laser-focused on the present and the task at hand of defending our Eastern Conference championship with the East being described as ‘wide open,’ while also positioning ourselves for maximum flexibility and maneuverability in the future.

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“Maximum flexibility” isn’t an overstatement: Miami’s books are squeaky clean after 2015-16. According to HoopsHype, only Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts are under contract for 2016-17, while the team has an option on rookie Shabazz Napier and James Ennis. All told, the Heat have just over $28 million committed. With new TV contracts expected to increase the salary cap by as much as $15 million, the Heat will have plenty of money to spend that summer. And plenty of attractive targets too.

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The head of the class is Kevin Durant, who will be 27 when his current contract expires, and at that point, he could—with apologies to James and Anthony Davis—be the most dominant player in basketball. While many analysts figures that Durant will head home to D.C. if he decides to leave the penny-pinching Oklahoma City Thunder, the Heat have a robust track record of attracting top talent. Miami is warm, beautiful and has the good fortune of being located in a state that doesn’t have an income tax.

But even if Durant passes on Miami, there are a surfeit of other options that could, in tandem, immediately elevate the Heat back to contention.

The summer has superstars. Chris Paul, who will be 31 at the time, and Dwight Howard, who will be 30, will each be 2016 free agents if they opt out of their current deals. LeBron James seems a long shot to finish his career anywhere but Cleveland, but James, along with new wing man Kevin Love, will both be unrestricted free agents that summer if they accept their 2015-16 player options.

There are stellar supporting cogs as well. Joakim Noah, a defensive dynamo who would form a devastating frontcourt combination with Bosh, will be 31 that summer and out of his contract with the Chicago Bulls. The perennially underrated Al Horford, who will turn 30 in the summer of 2016, would make a fine consolation prize. Fellow centers Brook Lopez and Roy Hibbert—both of whom carry red flags but tantalizing potential—could also be available.

Mike Conley, Nicholas Batum and Lance Stephenson—all squarely in their primes—could be on the market as well.

But while the Heat have a lot of factors in their favor in any free-agent chase—Miami itself being the key selling point—that’s not enough. They need a team, or a system, that convinces NBA stars they can win in South Beach.

And that’s where the next two seasons loom large. It’s the time when the Heat can make their case to the 2014 class: If you want rings, you can’t beat Miami.

To prove their case, the Heat need to demonstrate one important thing: that Chris Bosh is still one of the NBA’s top talents.

It’s simple: Bosh just needs to play at a much higher level than he has. There aren’t a lot of stars who are clamoring to team up with centers who shoot 41.5 percent from the floor—as Bosh has in the season’s first 11 games—or average 8.7 rebounds a night.

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It’s imperative that Bosh return to the early-season form that had some calling him a dark-horse MVP candidate and maintain it for the next 19 months. In order to do so, the stretchy center will need to focus on taking higher quality shots. This means a continued emphasis on the three—where Bosh is on pace to set a new career high in attempts—but coupled with a new commitment to playing in the post. Only 22 percent of Bosh’s attempts have come from within three feet of the hoop this season, per Basketball-Reference.com. That figure needs to be a lot higher.

Outside of Bosh, Miami’s superstar appeal is flawless. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has already proven that, with sufficient talent, he can craft a system on both sides of the floor that allows his players to thrive. The city of Miami has demonstrated that it’s an attractive destination for the young and super-rich. Pat Riley can build a fine supporting cast.

The remaining puzzle piece is that the player on Miami’s roster making superstar money starts playing like it. When he re-signed with the Heat this summer, Bosh was billed as a bridge between one era of Heat champs and the next. Things can change fast, but at the moment, the center appears to be a liability.