College Football Week 13: Picking the CFP Top 25 Games Against the Spread
On paper, Week 13 looks like one of the worst of the 2014 season. But, every so often, the worst weeks on paper morph into the best weeks on the field.
That's what makes this sport—especially at this time of year—such raving-mad fun to follow. You never know when, why, how or from where that season-changing upset will spring.
In accordance with the laws of chaos, my picks this week skewed underdog-heavy. That's probably for the best. Underdogs are the wellspring of seasoned handicappers, and I haven't hit them hard enough in going 23-24 against the spread since Week 10.
Sound off below and let me know where you disagree.
Happy hypothetical betting!
All spreads courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 12 Kansas State at West Virginia
1 of 11
The Line: West Virginia (-2)
Morgantown, West Virginia, has not been kind to the two best teams in the Big 12: Baylor and TCU. The former lost its only game of the season out in Monongalia County, and the latter won a game it almost definitely deserved to lose.
So what—other than being a slightly worse team—makes Kansas State different than Baylor and TCU?
I'm not sure that there's a good answer.
According to the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, Kansas State is the No. 26 team in the country, and West Virginia is No. 28. If the 'Eers could beat and almost beat the Nos. 6 and 9 teams in the country, per the same metric, what's stopping them from beating No. 26?
The Pick: West Virginia (-2)
No. 25 Minnesota at No. 23 Nebraska
2 of 11
The Line: Nebraska (-10.5)
So…about that Nebraska rush defense.
The Huskers let Melvin Gordon run for 408 yards in three quarters last week, and Wisconsin run for 581 yards as a team. And they did this despite the Badgers having no discernible trace of a passing game. Wisconsin was plain about what it wanted to do—run—and Nebraska wasn't big or mean or tough enough to stop it.
I'm not suggesting that Minnesota is as good as Wisconsin, or that David Cobb is as good as Gordon or even that playing this game in Lincoln as opposed to Madison doesn't matter. None of those things is true.
But Minnesota isn't awful, and Cobb might be the next best thing, and McNeese State covered this line with ease in Lincoln at the start of the season. There's enough here for the Gophers to stay within 10 points, even if they can't pull out the victory.
The Pick: Minnesota (+10.5)
Boston College at No. 3 Florida State
3 of 11
The Line: Boston College (+19)
Florida State has played and won nine games against FBS teams this season. Care to guess how many times it's won by 19 points?
Once.
The one opponent FSU beat by 19 or more points was Wake Forest, the No. 90 team on the F/+ ratings. Boston College ranks all the way up at No. 34, 56 spots ahead of the Demon Deacons and more than 30 spots ahead of three teams that covered this line against the 'Noles (Oklahoma State, Syracuse and NC State).
Last year Florida State played and won 13 games in the regular season. Care to guess how many times it won by 19 points?
Twelve.
Care to guess the one opponent that would have covered this line?
Mhmm.
The Pick: Boston College (+19)
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No. 8 Ole Miss at Arkansas
4 of 11
The Line: Ole Miss (-3.5)
Arkansas won its first SEC game under Bret Bielema last weekend, beating LSU 17-0. But that win was a long time coming. In truth, the Hogs started playing well at the end of last season, hanging around in their final four games after losing to South Carolina and Alabama by a combined score of 104-7 in consecutive weeks.
One of the teams Arkansas hung with in that final stretch was Ole Miss, which only beat it 34-24. The Rebels controlled most of that game, gaining 531 yards to Arkansas' 389, but a couple of Bo Wallace interceptions helped keep the score within reach.
This year Arkansas has a defense to pair with its offense, having just shut out LSU for the first time since the 2011 BCS National Championship Game. It held Mississippi State to 17 points at the start of November and Alabama to 14 points in mid-October.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, no longer has an offense to pair with its defense. It's four leading wide receivers from last year's Arkansas game—Donte Moncrief, Ja-Mes Logan, Laquon Treadwell and Vince Sanders—combined to catch 22 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns.
Of that group, only Sanders will play on Saturday.
The Pick: Arkansas (+3.5)
No. 15 Arizona at No. 17 Utah
5 of 11
The Line: Utah (-4)
Arizona keeps games close. Five of its eight wins have come by one score or less, and so has one of its two losses. Half of its games have been decided by four points or less—win or lose.
Utah keeps games close. Four of its seven wins have come by one score or less, and so have two of its three losses. Three-fifths of its games have been decided by four points or less—win or lose.
I feel like this game might be close.
In which case, I'll scoop up free points.
The Pick: Arizona (+4)
No. 16 Wisconsin at Iowa
6 of 11
The Line: Wisconsin (-9.5)
The first thing to look at in any Wisconsin game is the strength of its opponent's run defense. That much should be obvious.
On paper, Iowa has been solid. It ranks No. 50 in yards per carry allowed (3.98) and No. 45 on Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings. It has only allowed one team to average five yards per carry.
The problem is that that team, Indiana, averaged a lot more than five yards per carry—8.10, to be precise. Against the best non-Melvin Gordon running back they will face this season, Tevin Coleman, the Hawkeyes, at home, allowed 316 rushing yards on 39 carries.
They also allowed 51 points at Minnesota and 38 points at Maryland.
Get ready for another week of MelGor.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-9.5)
No. 24 Louisville at Notre Dame
7 of 11
The Line: Notre Dame (-3.5)
The loss of Louisville quarterback Will Gardner complicates what would have otherwise been a slam-dunk pick. Freshman Reggie Bonnafon has started two games this season and hasn't played poorly, per se; he just hasn't played as well as Gardner.
Regardless, you don't pick Louisville to cover at Notre Dame because of its offense. You pick it to cover at Notre Dame because of its defense. And more to the point, you pick it to cover at Notre Dame because of its defense getting to play Everett Golson.
Golson has committed 19 turnovers in the last seven games, crippling the Irish with his cavalier attempt at ball security. Notre Dame has lost three of its last four games despite punting a total of 12 times. The only thing that seems to stop its offense is…well…its offense.
That could be problematic against a Louisville team that ranks No. 10 in the country with 25 turnovers forced and No. 1 (by a significant margin) with 22 interceptions. The thought of Gerod Holliman and his historically paced 13 interceptions playing Golson is hard to ignore.
Based on the way this line has moved—opening Notre Dame minus-9 before sinking to minus-3.5—it seems like the bettors agree.
The Pick: Louisville (+3.5)
Oklahoma State at No. 7 Baylor
8 of 11
The Line: Baylor (-28)
Twenty-eight is a big number.
I know I said that two weeks ago when Baylor was laying 36 points against Kansas, and I know how that turned out.
But still.
Twenty-eight is a big number.
Granted, Oklahoma State is on a four-game losing streak and lost both of its past two road games by more than 28 points (42-9 at TCU and 48-14 at Kansas State). It nearly failed to cover this line at home against West Virginia (34-10) and Texas (28-7), too.
Regardless.
Twenty-eight is a big number.
A drastically better Oklahoma State team beat a slightly better Baylor team 41-14 last season. A lot has changed in the interim, but has it really been enough to swing the outcome 55 points?
Fifty-five is a really big number.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (+28)
No. 20 Missouri at Tennessee
9 of 11
The Line: Tennessee (-3.5)
Joshua Dobbs has come a long way since losing three turnovers in his first career start, a 31-3 loss at Missouri last season.
Maty Mauk has sunk a long way since throwing three touchdowns in his third career start, a 31-3 win over Tennessee last season.
But the ships-sailing-opposite-directions development of these quarterbacks has been reflected in the line, which values Tennessee as the slightly better team. And it does that despite the suspension of star inside linebacker A.J. Johnson and cornerback Michael Williams pending a police investigation into rape allegations.
Dobbs has been superb the past two games, but his offensive line is still brutal. And a defensive line with Markus Golden and Shane Ray is the last thing a brutal offensive line should be favored against.
Especially by more than a field goal.
The Pick: Missouri (+3.5)
No. 19 USC at No. 9 UCLA
10 of 11
The Line: UCLA (-3.5)
Brett Hundley has beaten USC the past two seasons, and if he beats the Trojans one more time, there will be nothing left for them to do but tip their helmets and call Hundley their daddy.
The redshirt junior quarterback has put up 532 yards of offense and five touchdowns without an interception against the Trojans the past two years, leading the Bruins to their first back-to-back wins in the rivalry since an eight-game winning streak in the 1990s. Before UCLA won in 2012, it had lost 12 of the previous 13 meetings.
"We tried everything [to stop Hundley]," interim head coach Ed Orgeron told reporters after last year's game. "We tried what we call a push rush. We started blitzing, and they started splitting us. It seemed like everything that we did they countered. Give them credit."
USC's defense is different this season, but not in a good way. Last year's defense was phenomenal; this year's is merely very good. And UCLA's offense, despite a rocky start to the year at Virginia, ranks No. 10 in the country on the F/+ ratings.
The Pick: UCLA (-3.5)
Other Top 25 Games*
11 of 11
Indiana at No. 6 Ohio State (-34)
Ohio State knows it needs style points. And even though Indiana is winless in Big Ten play, it did beat the leader of the SEC East, Missouri, on the road earlier this year. Urban Meyer is a skilled rhetorician who would love to claim come season's end that he beat the team that beat the SEC East champion by 40-some-odd points.
The Pick: Ohio State (-34)
Rutgers at No. 11 Michigan State (-22)
(1) Michigan State played a road game at Maryland last week. (2) Michigan State did not play well at all. (3) Michigan State won by 22 points anyway. (4) Maryland is better than Rutgers. (5) This game is in East Lansing. (6) Rutgers' past three losses were by 39, 28 and 37 points, respectively. (7) Gary Nova. (8) Why is this line so low?
The Pick: Michigan State (-22)
Kansas at No. 21 Oklahoma (-25)
Clint Bowen's Jayhawks are the hottest team on campus, even though they couldn't spring the upset over TCU. However, their impressive back-to-back performances have both come at home. The last time they hit the road, they got steamrolled by Baylor, 60-14. And Oklahoma isn't that far removed from beating Iowa State 59-14.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-25)
Washington State at No. 13 Arizona State (-16)
In seven Pac-12 games this season, Arizona State has: won by 14, lost by 35, won by four, won by 16, won by 14, won by three and lost by eight. Most of those wins were even closer than they sounded, too. Why should now be the first week it blows someone out?
The Pick: Washington State (+16.5)
Georgia State at Clemson (-41)
I ain't no fancy mathematician, but it seems like in order to cover 41 points, one would need to score 41 points. According to the F/+ ratings, Georgia State has the worst defense in college football. But according to my eyes, Cole Stoudt can't score 41 points on anyone. And if GSU lucks into a touchdown, he definitely can't score 48.
The Pick: Georgia State (+41)
Vanderbilt at No. 4 Mississippi State (-29.5)
I hate this game. Everything about it. The body-blow theory says to pick against Mississippi State after a physical loss at Alabama. The get-right-game theory says to pick Mississippi State after its first loss of the year. Ultimately, the fact that Vanderbilt's last game was a 24-point home loss to Florida is the tiebreaker. That is…just…yuck.
The Pick: Mississippi State (-29.5)
Last Week: 7-8-0
For the Season: 23-24-0
*Note: Odds Shark does not list a line for three games this week: Western Carolina at No. 1 Alabama, Colorado at No. 2 Oregon and Charleston Southern at No. 10 Georgia. Those games have been omitted in turn.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
