Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans own the rivalry with the Cincinnati Bengals, winning the last five meetings, including two playoff encounters, straight up and the last six meetings against the spread. The 5-5 Texans hope to keep those streaks alive when they host the 6-3-1 Bengals Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.5-22.3 Texans

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals bounced back after a miserable performance in a divisional home loss to rival Cleveland to shock most of the NFL betting world with a 27-10 victory at New Orleans, taking that game outright as nine-point road dogs. Cincy outgained the Saints 405-330, outrushed them 186-75 and held the high-octane New Orleans offense to a single touchdown, which didn't come until the fourth quarter.

Rookie running back Jeremy Hill posted his second 150-yard performance in the last three games, and quarterback Andy Dalton, after throwing three interceptions and zero touchdown passes against the Browns, threw three touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans are also coming off a big road victory, 23-7 at Cleveland. Houston outrushed the Browns 213-58 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin in winning straight up as a four-point dog. Rookie running back Alfred Blue rushed for 156 yards, and quarterback Ryan Mallett, in his first start for his new team, hit on 20 of 30 throws for 211 yards and two scores, including one to defensive end J.J. Watt.

So the Texans are 2-1 both SU and ATS in their last three games, pulling to .500 on the season and within a game of first place in the AFC South.

Houston only ranks 15th in total offense and 30th in total defense but has outrushed opponents by 34 yards per game. That's a good sign for potential Texans backers, considering that teams that have outrushed their opponents are 107-50 ATS so far this NFL season.

Smart pick

The teams that wins the ground battle will probably win this game, and cover this spread, and the team more likely to do that is Houston. So the smart money here resides with the Texans, the home team at the short spread.

Betting trends

• Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing Houston.
• The total has gone under in four of Houston's last six games when playing Cincinnati.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.