Complete Offseason Plan for the Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have plenty of work to do if they want to compete in the AL East in 2015.
They must invest significant resources in their starting rotation. They need to patch up their bullpen. They may choose to solidify third base, and they need to settle on selecting a backup catcher too.
Given their surplus of money, outfield talent and interesting prospects, the Red Sox are well positioned to address many of these holes this offseason. They’re also faced with a ton of different options, from spending like crazy in free agency to being very active on the trade market to trusting their own young players to take major steps forward.
With that in mind, rather than aggregate the most recent rumors or discuss potential acquisitions, I’m going to provide my plan for rebuilding the Red Sox.
First, all deals are meant to be grounded in reality. No four-year deal to retain Jon Lester, and no trading Will Middlebrooks for Mike Trout. The money has to make sense when it comes to signings, and the players have to make sense for both sides when it comes to trades.
Secondly, I’m considering Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts to be untouchable, but everyone else is up for grabs. The Sox could very well decide to move Betts this offseason, but if I were calling the shots, he’d be staying put.
Next, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden’s predictions (subscription required) will be used as the baseline for most of the contracts here. Bowden has a strong history of correctly forecasting free-agent deals, and while there are plenty of estimates out there, it helps to limit ourselves to one source.
Finally, we’ll use WEEI.com’s Alex Speier’s contract breakdown as a limit for what the Red Sox will spend this year. According to Speier, the Sox had $52 million to spend comfortable before their two-year, $18 million contract with Koji Uehara. That gives them $43 million to play with, with some room above that figure should they save less money for midseason acquisitions.
Without further ado, here’s how I’d rebuild the Red Sox for 2015 and beyond:
Sign Jon Lester to a Six-Year, $138 Million Contract
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There’s really no need to complicate this. The Red Sox are badly in need of starting pitching, and Jon Lester is the second-best starting pitcher on the market. Their offseason plan should start with resecuring his services for the next several years.
The notion of re-signing Lester has seemed more based in desire than reality for the past several months, but last week, ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes relayed information that at least one exec believes the Sox will indeed make a major play to retain Lester.
According to Edes, that exec said he thought the Sox would offer a six-year contract in excess of $20 million per year. That jells nicely with what Bowden predicted Lester would get on the open market, which is a six-year, $138 million deal.
There comes a point where the Sox would have to walk away from Lester; say if the deal turns into seven years for over $150 million; but they shouldn’t be afraid to make their homegrown southpaw a major offer. As Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) recently wrote, Lester figures to maintain his current level of production for the next three or four years, and the Sox can live with whatever comes on the back end of the deal if Lester is his normal self through 2018.
The point of drafting and developing cheap talent like Bogaerts and Betts is that it allows you to reallocate those savings on parts of the roster that need shoring up. It’s not a good idea to overload a team with massive contracts, but for a big-market team like the Red Sox, one or two such deals are fine.
Lester is deserving of a major payday, and he’ll instantly improve a rotation that lacks any semblance of upside or reliability.
Remaining Salary: $20 million
Trade Shane Victorino and Prospects for Mat Latos
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Complete Deal: Shane Victorino, Manuel Margot, Deven Marrero and Anthony Ranaudo for Mat Latos
For Red Sox fans, this probably feels like too much to give up for Mat Latos. For Reds fans, it might feel like too little. That’s generally an indication that an offer is fair, and while the Sox fork over a good amount of talent in this scenario, they get the perfect Robin to Lester’s Batman.
Latos is a very good pitcher when healthy. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has a lifetime ERA of 3.34 and a lifetime FIP of 3.41, per FanGraphs, and while some of those innings came at Petco Park, plenty came at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark too.
It’s reasonable to be a bit concerned about Latos’ declining velocity and strikeout rate. But it’s not altogether shocking that a pitcher would lose the premium velocity he showcased as a very young player, and Latos still has the stuff to profile as an effective No. 2 starter in the American League.
If the Red Sox trade for Latos and sign him to an extension, they’d be able to secure a talented young pitcher in his late 20s and early 30s, rather than an uber-expensive free agent on the wrong side of 30.
Victorino is an acceptable loss, and while he’s no doubt talented, he doesn’t really have a place on the 2015 Red Sox. Margot is the most difficult player to part with, but the Red Sox are loaded with outfield talent, and his departure won’t impact their 2015/2016 core.
Marrero’s value is up after a good AFL stint, and now would be a smart time to sell high. Ranaudo is another acceptable loss, as he’s more of a second-division starter. Plus, by including three prospects, the Red Sox could likely convince the Reds to eat all of Victorino’s salary, which should net the Sox about $3 million in savings, once you factor in the addition of Latos.
The truth is, the Red Sox aren’t going to acquire a pitcher who comes with zero risk without giving up Henry Owens or Blake Swihart. This package allows them to keep their core prospects intact while significantly bolstering the rotation for now and the future.
Remaining Salary: $23 million
Sign Chase Headley to a Three-Year, $36 Million Contract
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According to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, the Red Sox are in on both Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley, though you’d never know it based on all the Sandoval hype we’ve seen over the past few weeks.
There’s no doubting that Sandoval is the better hitter, and he’d be an entertaining get for the Red Sox. But he’s also going to be significantly more expensive, with Bowden projecting a five-year, $90 million deal necessary to land his services.
In this scenario, the Red Sox have already given out meaningful long-term deals to Lester and Latos. There’s no need to assume the risk of a third when there’s a perfectly viable option in Headley sitting on the board.
Headley lacks star power, but he’s the type of above-average left-handed option the Red Sox need. The former Padres produced 4.4 fWAR last year, per FanGraphs, and what he lacks in counting stats he makes up for with plus defense and a patient approach.
Bowden projects Headley to land a three-year, $27 million contract, but that seems low, especially with Heyman and others noting that the Yankees want to retain Headley’s services. Upping the AAV to $12 million could get the deal done, though, and could force the Yankees into either overspending for Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez or scraping together a Plan B at third base.
Letting Headley improve the left side of the infield while batting sixth behind Yoenis Cespedes and Mike Napoli would significantly improve the Red Sox’s defense and lineup alike moving forward.
Remaining Salary: $11 million
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Sign Brett Anderson to a One-Year, $6 Million Deal
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Even with the additions of Lester and Latos, the Sox could serve to further bolster their rotation. Adding Brett Anderson injects plenty of upside at a minimal cost, and while he can’t be expected to hold up for a full season, he could provide 100-plus innings of above-average pitching.
Anderson’s injury history on Baseball Prospectus is longer than a Charles Dickens novel, but when he’s healthy he’s a strong arm. With a career ERA of 3.73 and strong strikeout and walk rates, he’s an attractive buy-low candidate.
Bowden projects Anderson to land a one-year, $6 million contract, and while it would likely need to be incentive-laden, that’s exactly the type of risk the Sox should be looking for to round out their rotation. The odds of Anderson blooming aren’t great, but the cost is far from prohibitive.
Remaining Salary: $5 million
Trade Allen Craig for Fernando Abad and Tucker Healy
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This may not seem like much of a return for Allen Craig, but at this point, Craig probably isn’t worth much of a return. The former Cardinals star has been in decline for longer than his batting average would suggest, and while you can write that off as due to injury, we have no indication he’s going to be fully healthy again.
Since his breakout 2012 campaign, Craig has consistently hit fewer balls in the air and on the line and more balls on the ground. That’s not a good profile for a player who should be limited to first base or left field, and it’s tough to see a path to regular playing time for Craig on this team.
In Fernando Abad, the Red Sox will acquire a useful primary left-handed reliever to take the place of Andrew Miller. While simply signing Miller would be great, the left-hander is likely to land a massive contract for a reliever, and such deals have a very poor history of working out favorably.
Abad is under control for three more seasons, while Tucker Healy is a C-level prospect who represents a replacement for Anthony Ranaudo.
The A’s are seemingly always willing to take a chance on platoon players, and Craig is still inexpensive for one more year. That being said, Abad’s salary should be at least $3 million shy of Craig’s $5.5 million mark, and that offers the Sox even more room to improve their team.
Remaining Salary: $8 million
Re-Sign Burke Badenhop to a Two-Year, $8 Million Contract
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It’s hard for the reigning world champs to make an under-the-radar move, but that’s exactly what the Sox did last offseason when they acquired Burke Badenhop from the Brewers. No one payed the acquisition much mind when it occurred, but Badenhop went on to have a wonderful year, generating ground balls at a 61 percent clip and posting a 2.29 ERA.
Because his track record is less than stellar and he’s a middle reliever, there’s no massive payday around the corner. But by providing him the security of a two-year deal, it shouldn’t be terribly hard for the Red Sox to convince Badenhop to return to Boston and continue his stint as a valuable ground-ball specialist.
This isn’t a flashy acquisition, but if Badenhop throws another 60-plus innings of above-average pitching, he’ll produce surplus value.
Remaining Salary: $4 million
Sign Nick Hundley to a One-Year, $4 Million Contract
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David Ross served admirably as the Red Sox’s backup catcher in 2013 and 2014, and the Sox could decide to retain him as a mentor of sorts for Christian Vazquez. But while Ross brings experience and familiarity to the table, he’s really a non-factor at the plate.
Pairing Ross with Vazquez puts the Sox in serious risk of receiving nothing offensively behind the plate. Plus, Ross will be 38 years old when next season begins, and he’s a good bet to miss time at some point during the season.
It’s time for the Sox to go younger, and Nick Hundley presents an attractive option. The 31-year-old is just one year removed from hitting .233/.290/.389 with 13 homers as a Padre, and he hit .243/.273/.358 last season. Sadly, that’s a marked improvement over Ross, and Hundley brings youth and some pop to the table.
The Red Sox don’t need to sign a long-term solution behind the plate thanks to Vazquez and Blake Swihart, who could loom by July or August. Hundley is a nice short-term upgrade and one who can be quickly discarded should Swihart flourish or given a more prominent role should Swihart and Vazquez falter.
Hundley's 2014 salary was $4 million, and the Orioles declined his $5 million option for 2015. The Red Sox will likely be able to land him for a similar price.
Remaining Salary: $0
Final Roster: Starting Lineup
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LF Mookie Betts
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
RF Yoenis Cespedes
1B Mike Napoli
3B Chase Headley
SS Xander Bogaerts
CF Rusney Castillo
C Christian Vazquez
This is a deep, balanced lineup with plenty of upside throughout. The one-through-six spots are pretty formidable, with Headley adding a nice left-handed complement to the middle of the order. The bottom third is teeming with upside too, as Bogaerts is capable of playing like an up-the-order hitter, and Castillo has plenty of natural ability.
This lineup can run (Betts, Pedroia and Castillo), it can hit the ball a long way (Ortiz, Cespedes, Napoli, Bogaerts), it’s patient (Betts, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Headley) and it’s balanced in terms of right- and left-handers. If most of the key contributors stay healthy, it’s a lineup that can push for a top-five finish in the AL.
Final Roster: Bench
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C Nick Hundley
1B/OF Daniel Nava
UT Brock Holt
OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
The lack of power here stands out, but these four players allow the Red Sox to cover every position on the field and allow for tremendous late-game flexibility. Hundley is an improvement over Ross, and Holt proved his worth as a part-time player in 2014.
This is a bit unfair to Nava, who probably deserves to be playing every day somewhere, but that’s a luxury a good team can afford. And Bradley gets to try and re-establish himself in the majors in a lesser role.
If the Sox truly think they need more pop, Bradley could start the year in Pawtucket, and Will MIddlebrooks could come off the bench in Boston.
Final Roster: Starting Rotation
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SP Jon Lester
SP Mat Latos
SP Clay Buchholz
SP Brett Anderson
SP Joe Kelly
Reserves: Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes
The Sox need to completely transform their rotation this offseason, and this group of players looks a lot more impressive than what Boston has now. Lester and Latos serve as a legit one-two punch, and Buchholz and Anderson have upside, even if they’re unlikely to combine for 400 innings. Kelly can serve as the rotation’s final piece and eat up innings at the back end.
Buchholz and Anderson back-to-back may cause some indigestion, but keep in mind the Red Sox do still have Rubby De La Rosa, Matt Barnes, Allen Webster and, most importantly, Henry Owens in this scenario. They have the pieces to pick up the slack when it comes to missed time.
Final Roster: Bullpen
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RP: Tommy Layne/Drake Britton
RP: Brandon Workman/Alex Wilson
RP: Edward Mujica
RP: Fernando Abad
RP: Burke Badenhop
SU: Junichi Tazawa
CL: Koji Uehara
The bullpen lacks the one-two punch of Uehara and Andrew Miller, but it’s an even deeper group than what the Sox featured a year ago. Abad and Badenhop serve as valuable additions, and the Sox can let Layne and Britton fight it out for second lefty, while Workman, Wilson and perhaps one of Webster, Barnes or De La Rosa can fight for the ‘pen’s final spot.
At some point, the Sox may need to acquire another high-leverage arm. But there’s a chance that such a player can be found internally, and if not, it’s never terribly hard to acquire good relievers in-season.
Aside from Uehara there are no flashy names here, but this is a competent, deep and cost-effective group.
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