Toronto Raptors' Most Startling Statistics of 2014-15 Season So Far
In a basketball landscape that's placing more of an emphasis on analytics and statistics, it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore numbers and the importance they play in building a quality team.
The 8-2 Toronto Raptors may be riding high to begin the 2014-15 regular season, but a deeper look into their production will reveal a product that's far from finished.
To become a legitimate threat for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, some of the deficiencies in their game will need to be immediately addressed. The longer they linger, the greater chance they have of costing the team when games start to really matter.
Head coach Dwane Casey believes it's too early to be jumping to any conclusions about what his players are capable of, even with their successful start, per Scott Stinson of the National Post:
“I think our guys are intelligent enough to know that it’s way too early to put any kind of stock in anything. We know who we are, but we’re still trying to establish our identity, which is as a defensive team. It’s very early in anybody’s process to know where we are.”
While that's certainly a fair stance, four weeks seems like a reasonable amount of time to know what's working and what needs developing.
Numbers never lie, no matter what time of year it is.
Here are some of the more startling statistics, both good and bad, from the Raps' season so far.
First Quarter Failures
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It's not how you start that's important, but how you finish.
That's been the saving grace of a team that struggles mightily in the first 12 minutes of games, yet always finds a way to deliver in the closing moments.
Opponents are averaging 26.4 points in the first quarter (23rd) on a sizzling 50.9 percent shooting (27th), per NBA.com. That's resulted in the Raptors trailing after the opening period on seven different occasions.
One of their better starts came against the Washington Wizards on Nov. 7, holding John Wall and company to 18 points on 31 percent shooting at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto won 103-84.
Casey wishes he had that kind of defensive execution out of the gates more often, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca:
"Now that defence that we had tonight was a lot like last year and that's the way we have to perform starting in the first quarter. After the first couple times it kind of becomes a broken record and a self-fulfilling prophecy. We talked about it, hit it and let it go. Our guys are pros. They're smart players, they're mature, they're playoff battled and ready so they should understand how important the start of the game is.
"
When the fourth quarter rolls through, that's when the switch really flips on.
The Raptors' 26.5 points during that time are outscored only by the Denver Nuggets (27.6). The opposition sees their offensive production dip to 21.6 points (fourth) on 39.7 percent shooting (fifth), as well.
The players need to stop relying on late spurts to get them out of jams. It's as if they believe that no matter how lousy they are in the first, they're deep enough to rectify whatever hole they find themselves in.
That's a mindset you don't want to have.
Jonas Valanciunas' Minutes Decrease
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Casey's use of 22-year-old center Jonas Valanciunas is becoming one of the more compelling (and somewhat discouraging) storylines to the season.
Entering his third year in the league, Valanciunas was expected to see an increased role in an offense that's relied heavily on the backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
As Lowry told the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat back in September: "We can’t just do all guard-oriented types of things. We have to make sure he’s more involved and have to put a little pressure on him to score the ball.”
While his numbers haven't taken an enormous hit, Valanciunas has yet to establish himself as much of a low-post presence because, frankly, he hasn't had enough of an opportunity to do so.
| Year | Minutes | Points | FG% | Rebounds | Blocks | Turnovers | PER |
| 2013-14 | 28.2 | 11.3 | 53.1 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 16.1 |
| 2014-15 | 24.0 | 10.8 | 50.0 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.5 |
A poor habit of Casey's is allowing the opposing coach to dictate his matchups. If he goes small, so will Casey. That hinders 7'0" Valanciunas' chances of entering the fray.
Per Wolstat:
"Against Orlando, they brought (Channing) Frye in at the (centre position) and spaced us out to the three point line. There are certain things that (Valanciunas) just physically cannot do and we will adjust to them because we do have Amir (Johnson), who can play the five and Pat (Patterson) who can play the five with James (Johnson) at the four. That’s how we got back in the game and won the game against Orlando.
There are going to be certain situations that we adjust to where he’s not included, but that doesn’t mean he has done anything wrong or he’s not growing. He is where he needs to be.
"
That strategy really comes into play late in games. Valanciunas' average of 4.4 minutes in fourth quarters is third-lowest on the roster.
Lack of Ball Movement
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What the San Antonio Spurs showcased during the 2014 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat is that ball movement can be a thing of beauty. When the basketball touches everyone's hands, it makes the defense work that much harder.
It's part of the reason why they were able to thoroughly dominate LeBron James' squad in all four wins.
The Raptors don't seem nearly as interested in executing a similar offense to that of the defending NBA champions. Their 106.0 points (fifth) have come as a result of very little passing and plenty of one-on-one isolation.
| Category | Average/Total | Rank |
| Assists per game | 18.1 | 27th |
| Passes per game | 286.0 | 22nd |
| Total assists | 181 | 28th |
| Secondary assists | 4.7 | 20th |
| Assist opportunities | 36.8 | 29th |
| Points created by assists | 43.2 | 26th |
Only Lowry is averaging over three assists (5.8).
Lowry and DeRozan led the team in that category last season with 7.4 and 4.0, respectively. Those numbers have since dropped to 5.8 and 2.5.
They thrive on playing hero ball, creating their own scoring opportunities to get the team back in games. Lowry's 67 total points on drives are fifth in the NBA, while DeRozan's 53 are 15th.
It hasn't hurt the team in the standings. It's just puzzling to see that formula work. They're one of only three teams (Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets) to be in the bottom 10 in assists and have a winning record.
Second Unit Reigns Supreme
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One of the NBA's more feeble second units in 2013-14 has now become a force to be reckoned with.
Casey has settled on a five-man "bench mob" of Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson and Tyler Hansbrough. They all average at least 18.5 minutes of action.
It's the additions of Williams and Johnson that turned the tides, though. With the core of the unit being Vasquez, Patterson and Hansbrough, the bench could only muster up 26.1 points (27th) last season, per Hoopsstats.com.
With two new quality pieces, that number has since risen to 35.9 points, good enough for ninth overall.
| Name | Minutes | Points | FG% | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | PER |
| Lou Williams | 18.5 | 10.3 | 40.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 16.3 |
| James Johnson | 19.4 | 7.6 | 57.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 20.9 |
When Casey goes to his bench, he channels his inner Pat Burns and does a complete five-for-five hockey substitution.
The Vasquez-Williams-Johnson-Patterson-Hansbrough lineup averages the third-most minutes at 9.2. They're also quite formidable on the other side of the ball with a defensive rating of 87.6
Vasquez loves being grouped with four other guys who are strong enough to challenge the starters, per the Sun's Ryan Wolstat:
"We’re trying to get each other better. The guys that are coming off the bench, we’re trying to earn minutes and go after the starters. That’s how we get better. It’s a healthy, healthy locker room ... We’re trying to come in and have a presence, somehow, somehow. We have guys in the starting lineup that are playing extremely well so we want to put our impact in the game, and we have.
"
The Importance of Amir Johnson
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Amir Johnson's ankles are already becoming a problem. It's an injury that carries over from the wear and tear he endured one season ago.
This could mean big trouble for a team that relies heavily on the 10-year veteran for stability on defense.
The team ranks ninth in defensive rating at 100.5, and is one of two teams in the Eastern Conference (Chicago Bulls) to be in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive rating (109.0, fourth).
Johnson's 100.9 defensive rating is the highest of any starter, almost four points better than that of Terrence Ross (104.2).
When he's absent, Patterson steps into the starting lineup and does his best to compensate. Things don't end up very well when that happens.
| Lineup | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg |
| With Amir Johnson | 116.7 | 98.3 | 18.4 |
| With Patrick Patterson | 114.0 | 136.0 | -22.0 |
It's hard to fault Patterson too much. He thrives on shooting (46.9 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three-point range) and being a stretch 4. His skill set is the ying to Johnson's yang, not both.
Johnson has seen his playing time decrease from 28.8 to 24.3 minutes, but that's not because he's not producing. It's a means to preserve his health for the long haul.
When he does sit, the team unfortunately suffers. One of their two losses (against Miami on Nov. 2, 107-102) came when he was held out on the second night of a back-to-back.
Christopher Walder is considered by many to be the "songbird of his generation" and the greatest center to have never played professional, collegiate, high school, house league or pickup basketball. His work has been published on Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, FanSided and several other online outlets. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
All statistics, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of NBA.com/stats and Basketball-Reference.com
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