Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: July 29th 2009

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Game Match-Up 7/29 7:08 ET
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The MLB deadline is nearly here, and every game matters to determine whether teams are buyers or sellers. There’s no doubt that the New York Yankees (61-39, +$96) are only in the market to add to their team, and if they can beat the Tampa Bay Rays (55-46, +$181) once again on Wednesday night, they may turn the defending AL Champs into sellers.

After splitting the first two games of this three-game set, the Yankees have been lined as -110 favorites to win the series. You can also find a ‘total’ of 8.5 over -120 at BetUS.com right now!

If the Yankees are going to pull the trigger on a potential deal for Toronto’s Roy Halladay, RHP Joba Chamberlain will probably have to be a part of the package. But why would the Bronx Bombers want to part with their 23-year old righty? Chamberlain is 6-2 with a 3.86 ERA in his first season as a full-time starter in New York’s rotation. Much like the rest of the Yankees, the right-hander has been on absolute fire since the All-Star Break, and he’s a big reason they’re in front of both the BoSox and Rays for first place in the AL East. In his L/2 starts, Chamberlain is 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a 9.22 K/9. Chamberlain has a 1.88 career ERA against Tampa Bay, but seven of those eight career appearances came out of the bullpen. His only start against the defending AL champs was back on June 7th where he allowed three runs in six innings and got tagged with a no-decision in New York’s 4-3 victory.

For the Rays to get back into the playoff picture, they’re going to need better production out of RHP Matt Garza. The numbers for the ’08 ALCS MVP have been excellent this season, but it isn’t translating in the W/L column. His 3.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP are both solid stats, but he’s just 7-7 on the year. His last start was absolutely sensational though, as he outpitched Halladay to earn Tampa Bay a 4-2 victory in Toronto. The right-hander has had a major problem getting any help from his offense this season, as the Rays have only averaged scoring 3.67 runs per game for him since the start of May. Garza is only 1-2 in six career starts against the Yankees, but once again, his 3.79 ERA is very respectable.

The bottom line in this game is that the Rays just aren’t as good as the Yankees. Tampa Bay’s offense has been wildly inconsistent since the All-Star Break, as the unit has failed to score more than four runs in 19 of its L/24 games, averaging just 3.83 runs per game in that stretch. That’s a far cry from an offense that averaged over 5.5 runs per game not too long ago. Bank on Joba’s hot start to the second half of the season to keep the Rays at bay once again this evening.

Rose’s Recommendation: 3* New York Yankees -110 (Chamberlain/Garza)
(Rating Scale: 1* – 5*)