Bills' Thursday Night Loss to Dolphins All but Kills Buffalo's Playoff Hopes

There are still six games remaining on the Buffalo Bills' regular-season schedule, but their season is close to over. At this point, their only hope of making the playoffs is to win at least five of those games.

But the Bills' hopes of hitting that mark are slim if their offense continues to play like it did in Thursday night's 22-9 loss to the Miami Dolphins. 

The fact that the game turned into a defensive struggle is not a surprise, with two Top 10 defenses going head-to-head. But while the Bills have an impressive group of pass-catchers, their running game has been absent without Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and their passing game has been shaky with Kyle Orton at quarterback. The offense never found its rhythm, but really got knocked around in the second half as it picked up only 86 yards.

Their long-term quarterback situation notwithstanding, the Bills have built toward a bright future, but the brightest moment may not come this season. 

Sure, there's still an outside chance that the Bills could end their 14-year postseason drought, but given the remaining opponents on their schedule, the current landscape of the AFC playoff picture and the Bills' current standing within that picture, it would take a small miracle for Buffalo to even sneak into the wild card. 

Last year, nine wins ended up being the threshold to make it to the AFC playoffs. In order to get to that mark, the Bills would have to overcome some stiff competition.

Week	Team	Record
12	vs. New York Jets	2-8
13	vs. Cleveland Browns	6-3
14	at Denver Broncos	7-2
15	vs. Green Bay Packers	6-3
16	at Oakland Raiders	0-9
17	at New England Patriots	7-2

Much of it is out of their hands, though. The Bills face three teams that are in the hunt for the AFC playoffs, and all three of those teams are leading their division right now. The only favor the Bills can do for themselves at this point is to hand a loss to the 6-3 Cleveland Browns.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' remaining opponents have a combined record of 25-27-2, so despite having their doors blown off against the New York Jets last week, they could still go from 6-4 to a double-digit win total to finish the season. 

The Bills have a tough road ahead. Their remaining opponents have a combined record of 28-27—not the most difficult among the AFC playoff contenders—but they have four opponents left with winning records. Among them are the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, all coming during a four-game stretch to close out the season. 

Their margin for error just got a lot smaller, and it was already small to begin with. 

The Bills offense is certainly not increasing that margin for error. The Bills have not scored a touchdown in 21 straight drives dating back to Week 10 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Orton is 51-of-87 (58.6 percent) for 452 yards (5.2 YPA), a touchdown and a 76.4 passer rating over the past two games—far more representative of Orton's career numbers (81.3 rating) than his 2014 numbers (93.5 rating).

Maybe a critical evaluation of the offense in recent games is unfair, considering the level of their competition; the Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks No. 1 against the pass, and headed into Thursday night's game, the Dolphins defense ranked No. 2. The problem with a relaxed evaluation is that Orton is no different than he's ever been in his career: serviceable, good in spots but probably not good enough to get a team to the playoffs.

Despite that, head coach Doug Marrone is not thinking about switching back to young quarterback EJ Manuel. 

It's hard to blame him, given the way the offense performed with Manuel.  

It's also hard to blame Marrone for Manuel being on the roster. It's unclear whether former general manager Buddy Nix or current GM Doug Whaley had a bigger hand in drafting Manuel, but Manuel did not show enough signs of development to warrant continued consideration as the starting quarterback. 

Marrone is simply trying to do what is best to help his team win. Unfortunately, it may not be enough. 

Their chances of winning five of their remaining six games seem pretty slim, so the Bills are also left hoping that the Browns, Steelers, Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens all have slip-ups down the stretch.  

Fortunately for the Bills, none of the teams in the hunt for the AFC wild-card spots are really pulling away from the pack. Last season, the Chiefs and Broncos got out to such a hot start that it left everyone else fighting for one wild-card spot. 

This season, the only teams that are really establishing themselves as front-runners for their division crowns are the Patriots, Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. Everyone else is stuck in the middle. The Bills can only pray that it stays that way, and with a little luck, they could still be competing for a playoff spot at the end of the season.

But given their schedule, and easier paths for other potential playoff teams, the Bills may have a hard time reaching the necessary win total to make the playoffs.

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