Finding Perfect Rotation for the Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are off to blazing start, winning seven of their first eight games, with all their victories coming by double digits. That has the twofold benefit of helping them in the standings and working out their rotation, although, the latter half of that is counter-intuitive.
The Rockets’ roster experienced an overhaul last offseason because of trades and signings. Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin and Omri Caspi are all gone. Taking their places are Trevor Ariza, Joey Dorsey, Nick Johnson, Kostas Papanikolaou, Tarik Black and Jason Terry.
Isaiah Canaan has seen his role increase in the wake of a Patrick Beverley injury. Donatas Motiejunas has gotten more minutes filling in for the injured Terrence Jones. Troy Daniels, who was last season’s playoff hero, continues getting spot minutes.
One of the big challenges the Rockets had coming into the season was smoothing out their rotation. That’s been problematic so far, but they’ve been able to get away with it because of a soft schedule.
Five of their seven wins have come against teams with losing records. Another, the San Antonio Spurs, came when the champs were sitting Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.
In the immediate future, things will still be fairly easy.
Through Dec. 20, they face the Oklahoma City Thunder (Nov. 16), Memphis Grizzlies (Nov. 17, Dec. 3), Dallas Mavericks (Nov. 22) Los Angeles Clippers (Nov. 28) and Golden State Warriors, who handed them their lone defeat (Nov. 10). Their other 11 opponents all missed the postseason last year.
After that, things get much more difficult, with eight of their 10 following adversaries being 2014 playoff teams, and the other two being the breakout Pelicans and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have acquired LeBron James and Kevin Love.
That means that the Rockets have between now and then to get some continuity in their rotation. Chemistry is huge once the regular season enters the grueling midseason days. Games are won and lost on the bench.
But this is where there’s a bit of a silver lining. As a result of the injuries, lineups that might never have otherwise happened have gotten significant minutes. And in in light of those, we might have the best way for Kevin McHale to set up his rotations.
The Starters
Getting the starting five healthy is the first step. Since that group has played just twice this season, that’s no small feat.
Beverley is day-to-day with a sprained ankle. Terrence Jones has the same prognosis but with a peroneal nerve contusion (which means a nerve in his knee is bruised that affects feeling in his lower leg). Getting both of them back is the obvious first priority to getting the rotation worked out.
Per NBA.com/STATS, the starters have been together just 25 minutes.
If you’re looking for something to be optimistic about, it’s not hard. When the Rockets' version of a big three—Harden, Howard and Ariza—plays together, they’re plus-84 in 154 minutes. That’s the best in the NBA.
Add Jones to that trio, and they are plus-33 in 68 minutes. With Motiejunas in at power forward, they’re plus-20 over 52 minutes. When Beverley is playing point guard, they’re plus-33 in 51 minutes. Include Canaan at the 1, and they’re plus-40 in 67.
In other words, the other parts can be swapped in and out around the big three, and the team is still strong. However, Per NBAWowy.com, in the 25 minutes none of the three have played, the Rockets were outscored 67-37.
Harden generated some controversy this summer when he told Joaquin Henson of The Philippine Star:
"“Dwight (Howard) and I are the cornerstones of the Rockets. The rest of the guys are role players or pieces that complete our team. We’ve lost some pieces and added some pieces. I think we’ll be fine next season.”
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The numbers are a vindication of what he said.
When even one of the three sits down, they suffer. Without Harden, they’re minus-23. Sans Howard, they’re minus-19. And when Ariza rests, they’re minus-16.
Thus, the trick is figuring out how to give their three best players sufficient rest while maintaining a competitive lineup.
Resolving the Rotation
According to HoopsStats.com, the Rockets’ second unit is getting beat 34.5 to 25.4. In part that’s because their opponents are giving their bench more minutes, and in part that’s because the Rockets' would-be bench players are filling in as starters.
Part of effectively managing the rotation will involve keeping either Howard or Harden on the court at all times—or at least as long as the games are competitive. And that’s where what we’ve seen from the varied lineups this season can carry over for the duration of it.
The Rockets’ best lineup without Harden is Beverley, Howard, Jones, Papanikolaou and Terry.
Their most successful lineup without Howard is Ariza, Harden, Motiejunas, Papanikolaou and Terry.
Because of the overlap with Papanikolaou and Terry, it should make the rotation fairly simple once everyone is healthy. The first round of substitutions, near the end of the first and third quarters, should feature Motiejunas, Papanikolaou and Terry for Beverley, Jones and Howard.
A couple of minutes into the next quarter McHale could put back in Howard and Jones and Beverley for Ariza, Harden and Motiejunas.
Then with around five minutes left, he can bring his starters back in. Canaan and Black would both be available for spot duties or when there’s foul problems, making use of a fairly consistent 10-man rotation.
In blowouts, McHale can give the starters extra rest and tap deeper into his bench, giving players like Daniels, Johnson and Black more run.
In that way, he can keep a productive lineup on the court but keep Harden and Howard to 33-35 minutes per game. At the same time, he can continue to develop his young bench.
The secret sauce to this strategy is Papanikolaou, who can play as a stretch 4 and a point forward, making him unique. In the sans-Harden lineup he can play the 4. When he’s on the court without Howard, he can help run the offense at the 3.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, among first-year players, he is second in both assists and rebounds and eighth in points. He’s becoming a dark-horse candidate for Rookie of the Year. He’s also the best hope the Rockets have to give them a productive bench.
Once the starters are settled, and the rotations stabilize, the Rockets’ bench has a chance to complement the starters enough to become a productive unit. They’re not going to be the Spurs bench, but they should be good enough by season’s end to not be the liability they are now.
All stats for this article were obtained form Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com/STATS.
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