Denver Broncos vs. St. Louis Rams: Complete Week 11 Preview for St. Louis
The St. Louis Rams (3-6) will host the Denver Broncos (7-2) for a tough home game, and this article will be the guide for the upcoming matchup.
The game against Denver marks the end of the "murder's row" portion of St. Louis' schedule—a stretch that featured the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco again and the Arizona Cardinals—in that order.
Denver is arguably the most challenging opponent of that entire lineup, so the Rams will be in for an intense battle at the Edward Jones Dome this week.
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET and will air on CBS for local broadcasting, as well as channel 712 for DirecTV.
Read on for a complete preview of the game, including predictions, headlines, analysis on the key matchups and more.
Week 10 Recap
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The Week 10 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals was a horrible disappointment for St. Louis fans—not because the Rams lost, but because the team coughed up a victory that was easily within reach.
The Rams entered halftime with a 14-10 lead over Arizona—a lead they protected until midway through the fourth quarter—and then the meltdown happened.
Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was injured in the final quarter with the Rams leading by four points. At that point, a Rams victory seemed likely and even inevitable, but backup Drew Stanton hit John Brown for a 48-yard touchdown on his very first drive.
That gave Arizona a three-point lead, but it was not terribly alarming for St. Louis since there was still over seven minutes on the clock. However, the Rams' attempt to answer back was easily the most pathetic display of football that St. Louis fans have witnessed all year.
The next three St. Louis drives all ended in turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns for Arizona. The Rams managed to transform a mere three-point deficit into an overwhelming 17-point blowout in under two minutes.
That's a special type of incompetence that few NFL teams possess.
The Rams had an opportunity to upset the best team in the NFL on the road and head into Denver with a shred of hope. Instead, they exited the game completely inflated and embarrassed.
News and Notes
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Goodbye, Austin Davis; Step Up, Shaun Hill
Shortly after the game in Arizona, coach Jeff Fisher mentioned that Austin Davis would remain the team's starting quarterback, despite his meltdown against the Cardinals. Apparently, Fisher's comments were mere lip service, as veteran Shaun Hill is now penciled in as the starter, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.
The move is far from a surprise. Davis was responsible for three fourth-quarter turnovers against the Cardinals (one fumble and two interceptions) that led to two defensive scores for Arizona. The poor protection by the offensive line didn't help, but the turnovers were still almost entirely on Davis.
The St. Louis defense has been excellent in recent weeks. As a result, the Rams simply need a steady game manager at quarterback to compliment the defense, as opposed to Davis' dangerous gunslinger antics.
If Hill can perform better than Davis against the blitz and avoid careless turnovers, he'll likely put the Rams in a position to win more games.
Chris Long Nearing His Return
According to Wagoner, Rams defensive end Chris Long is finally back in pads and on the practice field after injuring his ankle back in Week 1.
It's still unclear if Long will be able to suit up for Sunday's game against Denver, but the Rams predict he'll be ready to play sometime within the next 21 days.
The St. Louis pass rush got off to an extremely slow start. The unit produced just one total sack in the first five games, and the absence of Long is likely a key reason for that.
Long's presence makes it much more difficult for offenses to double-team Robert Quinn. And when Quinn isn't double-teamed at all times, all heck breaks loose.
Mark Barron's Role Slowly Increasing
Safety Mark Barron was traded from Tampa Bay to St. Louis just before the Rams' Week 9 game against the 49ers, but he didn't get any reps on defense in his debut.
Barron saw a handful of snaps against Arizona the following week, and he played well. He made plays behind the line of scrimmage, and he was the player who put the pressure on Palmer during the play that injured Palmer and sent him to the locker room. (It was a clean play with no foul intent)
According to Wagoner, the Rams are pleased with what the former top-10 draft pick has done so far, and his role will increase against Denver:
“He’s done very, very well," Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams said. "Hopefully, you guys will get a chance to see him play some this week. He’s done a very good job and has earned the right to play in some packages.”
Barron has been a pleasant surprise for St. Louis, and he should be a valuable weapon for the remainder of the season.
Injury Report
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The following injury report is from the official website of the St. Louis Rams and includes Friday's practice status and game status. Be sure to check the injury report closer to kickoff for a more up-to-date list:
LB Daren Bates (Groin): Did Not Participate, Doubtful
DL Alex Carrington (Quad): Did Not Participate, Questionable
DE William Hayes (Fibula): Full Participation, Probable
LB Will Herring (Foot): Limited Participation, Probable
DB Lamarcus Joyner (Groin): Did Not Participate, Doubtful
LB James Laurinaitis (Foot): Full Participation, Probable
CB Marcus Roberson (Ankle): Did Not Participate, Out
WR Damian Williams (Hamstring): Did Not Participate, Doubtful
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X-Factors and Matchups
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Pass Rush vs. Peyton Manning
The Rams faced Palmer last week. At the time, Palmer had not been sacked more than twice in a single game this season, but St. Louis sacked him a season-high three times.
Peyton Manning is in a similar position. Manning has yet to be sacked more than twice in a single game this season, so the ferocious St. Louis pass rush has a chance to really throw him off his game by creating heavy pressure—something Manning has rarely dealt with this year.
Obviously, a veteran such as Manning is capable of making quick throws and excellent reads, and that will help neutralize the pass rush. However, if the Rams can overwhelm the Denver offensive line and somehow punish Manning for the majority of the game, it will give St. Louis a shot at pulling off the win.
The pass rush is St. Louis' best weapon. The only way the Rams can win is if they max out that weapon against Denver.
Terrance Knighton vs. Rams Interior Line
Terrance Knighton has been an anchor at nose tackle for the Denver defense, and the weak interior of the Rams offensive line is going to have a rough afternoon.
Knighton is a big reason why the Broncos own the No. 1 run defense in the NFL—a unit that allows less than 70 rushing yards per game—and the Rams are going to struggle with runs up the gut as a result.
Expect the Rams to avoid Knighton by utilizing runs off the tackle to the outside. When running up the middle is necessary, expect Knighton to be double-teamed by center Scott Wells and at least one of the guards.
Additionally, the Rams can use tight end Lance Kendricks as a lead-blocking fullback if necessary, which will give the St. Louis run game that extra bit of push against Knighton.
Don't expect gaudy numbers for running back Tre Mason this week, but don't expect him to be totally shut out either. The Rams have faced some very good run defenses in recent weeks, so this is nothing new for the offense.
How Will Shaun Hill Handle the Pass Rush?
One of the main criticisms against Davis was his tendency to panic under heavy pressure. The blitz frequently gave him "happy feet" and forced him to make highly questionable throws.
The Rams are hoping a veteran's touch at the quarterback position will result in better decision making under pressure.
Hill, a veteran in his 13th season, has better instincts than the 25-year-old Davis. The Rams are hoping that he'll beat the pass rush by utilizing quicker reads and remaining calm.
Hill's play is not as flashy, but he offers the Rams more reliability when under pressure, and as a veteran, he certainly won't make the fourth-quarter hiccups we've seen from Davis.
Prediction
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There's no logical reason why anyone should favor the Rams over the Broncos. Denver is a juggernaut team, and the Rams have done little this season to show that they're up for the challenge.
The game isn't a total lock for either team. St. Louis took down San Francisco on the road and beat Seattle at home two week earlier. The Rams also had a road win against Arizona within reach, but the fourth-quarter meltdown by Davis spoiled the effort.
However, those games were against NFC West rivals. The Rams are a different team against the NFC West, and the game against Denver will not feature the same intensity.
Manning will likely pick apart the vulnerable St. Louis secondary, and the Rams will struggle to run the ball on offense—making the offense one-dimensional.
If the St. Louis pass rush has its best game of the year, then a victory is certainly possible. But realistically speaking, the Broncos should exit St. Louis with a fairly easy win.
Prediction: Broncos 35, Rams 20
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