Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: Complete Week 11 Preview for Atlanta

The 3-6 Atlanta Falcons head to Carolina to take on the 3-6-1 Panthers. Atlanta needs a win to leapfrog the Panthers in the standings, while a loss from New Orleans could combine with a Falcons win to put the Falcons back into first place in the division.

With how this season is going, anything could be possible. Mike Smith needed the wake-up call that the team was going to fire him if it didn't make the playoffs. If Atlanta can win this week, it faces a favorable schedule with four of its next six at home and five of its next six indoors.

Considering Atlanta is 2-1 inside and 1-5 outside right now, it would be extremely helpful to play more indoor games. If Atlanta can win this week and all of its remaining home games, it could finish the year 8-8, and Smith might just be able to keep his job.

One thing going in the Atlanta Falcons favor right now is the status of Cam Newton. He hasn't been fully healthy all season. Newton admitted during a press conference that he's not been 100 percent for the Carolina Panthers recently:

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Hurt is hurt. If you're asking me am I hurt right now? Yeah, I'm hurt. I haven't felt 100 percent in a long time. But is that ... my excuse why we're on a losing streak? No, absolutely not. You ask me a question: Is Cam Newton hurt? Yes, I'm hurt. And that's all honesty. But can I play, yes I can play and I will be playing.

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If Newton is hurt, the Falcons' chances of winning go up exponentially. But as it sits right now, the Falcons look like they have the advantages needed to win this game. If Atlanta can just play their game, they should be able to win by grinding the Panthers defense down with Steven Jackson and destroying them deep with Julio Jones.

Atlanta Falcons' Week 10 Recap

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Atlanta beat Tampa Bay in a game that wasn't as close as the 10-point margin suggested that it was. Atlanta had the advantage all day and dropped multiple touchdowns. On the bright side, it was Atlanta's best pass-rushing game of the season.

If Osi Umenyiora and Kroy Biermann can play like they did against the Buccaneers every week, the Falcons defense could wind up with multiple double-digit sack artists for the first time since Rod Coleman and Patrick Kerney did it in 2004.

The momentum of a pair of division road wins could be extremely helpful for the Falcons with a six-game stretch that includes four home games, five indoor games and just one trip that is out of the Southeast. Atlanta has the talent to make a run, but Mike Smith will have to show that he can coach them into winners.

Despite starting 2-1, the Falcons went on a five-game losing streak. However, if they want to be the first team to go to the playoffs after a 2-6 start, they need to win five of their next six at a minimum. Hopefully, this week can be the next building block of a good season instead of another nail in Smith's coaching coffin.

News and Notes

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Roddy White About to Join Elite Company

Roddy White is just 73 yards away from joining the exclusive 10,000 yards club. Only 41 other receivers have hit that mark in their careers. Vaughn McClure quoted White about how winning games trumps that as his main goal at this point:

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It would mean a lot, once I get to that point, once I reach that plateau. But [I'm] more interested in winning games. Right now, we can put ourselves in position to kind of take off. So, that's my main focus.

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And White isn't wrong. The Falcons have a shot to win the division. They should be focusing on that more than any sort of milestones. Just like when Steven Jackson got to his 11,000-yard career rushing milestone, it was a neat thing to see. But if the team doesn't win, no one cares.

With the Falcons at 3-6 and needing a miracle, White's focus on winning could potentially help them turn the season around. The Falcons have an attitude that they can be the first playoff team and division winner who has turned their season around despite going 2-6 through the first eight games of the year.

Matt Ryan's Leadership Evolves Where It's Needed

Matt Ryan is a true leader and was voted a permanent captain for the Atlanta Falcons for the rest of the season. But his leadership has been more than just on the field, he's been vocal off of it too. Ryan told AP writer Paul Newberry about how the team just needs to do better as a whole:

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You've got to deliver winning performances. We haven't done collectively — and personally — a good enough job of that across the board. But we've got seven games to go. The way that we play, the way that I play, in the next seven games will tell the story of our football team and myself personally this year.

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Ryan has been criticized by some media outlets lately for not being the right kind of leader for the Falcons. This is an unfair criticism though. Ryan is one of the best leaders for his role in the NFL. Before this season, Atlanta Falcons captains weren't voted on until after the season.

This year, the Falcons voted on their captains during the bye week and revealed the permanent captains against the Buccaneers. Ryan was one of the captains that the team voted in. The modification of the Falcons' captains rule likely came in because of Ryan's willingness to show his leadership even more.

Atlanta needs to lean on the seventh-year quarterback even more than it normally has off the field. If the Falcons have a major turnaround, it will be because Ryan has turned the team's attitude into one of a winning team and not one of a losing team.

Win vs. Carolina helps Atlanta's Chance to Seize the Division Title

Atlanta could still win the NFC South for just the third time in head coach Mike Smith's tenure in Atlanta. That's both embarrassing for the division and hopeful for the Falcons. Blogging Dirty's Adnan Ikic notes how the win would have Atlanta guaranteed a winning record within the division for the season:

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One thing Atlanta does have going for it is the divisional record: having already beaten the first placed Saints once and Bucs twice, the Falcons are 3-0 in the division, with a great chance to go 4-0 this weekend with a win against the aforementioned Panthers. An end of the season tiebreaker for the division win could easily go in Atlanta’s favor due to this dominance against NFC South rivals.

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Atlanta has only won more than three games in the division once under Smith. And that was the 2010 season when they went 13-3 before getting destroyed by the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. This year's team could be the first one with a legitimate shot at sweeping the division.

The Panthers have been mediocre. The Buccaneers have already been swept. And the Saints have been the toughest opponent, but even they haven't been superstars. If the Falcons can win this week, it would already cement Smith's second-best divisional record of his head coaching career.

Injury Report

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Pos	Name	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Game Status
WR	Harry Douglas	Foot	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
WR	Devin Hester	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
OG	Justin Blalock	Foot	LP	LP	FP	Probable
OT	Jonathan Scott	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DE	Jonathan Massaquoi	Foot	LP	LP	FP	Probable
CB	Josh Wilson	Ankle	-	-	LP	Questionable

*All injury statuses from the official Atlanta Falcons website.

DNP: Did Not Practice

LP: Limited in Practice

FP: Fully Practiced

Harry Douglas and Devin Hester are the Falcons' two most important offensive players against a team with poor safeties like Carolina has. Without both of them, Atlanta's offense will have to rely on the tight end, and Levine Toilolo hasn't shown that capability to be a great pass-catcher yet.

Jonathan Scott is normally inactive, so his status is a bit irrelevant. Josh Wilson, on the other hand, getting added last minute isn't a good thing. If he were to miss this game, Robert McClain and Javier Arenas will be the nickel and dime corners, respectively.

Justin Blalock looks like he might be fine despite the foot injury. Jonathan Massaquoi is probable as well and looks like he might be healthy from his foot injury. Hopefully, he is. Massaquoi has been the Falcons' best pass-rusher this season, and if Osi and Biermann can look like they did last week, he could have a monster game against a bad Panthers offensive line.

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

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Osi Umenyiora vs. Byron Bell

Byron Bell has been the worst pass-blocking offensive tackle in the entire NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency (subscription required). Osi Umenyiora has been one of the most productive defensive ends in the NFL based on their pass-rushing productivity stat. Umenyiora should have his best game of the season, especially if the Falcons stop the run for most of the day.

Umenyiora once played a game against a guy by the name of Winston Justice in a similar situation and destroyed him to the tune of six sacks on the day. Even if Umenyiora isn't the guy to do that once again, Jonathan Massaquoi and Kroy Bierman should be able to combine with him to get after the quarterback all day and force Cam Newton to run around in the backfield like a chicken with his head cut off.

Justin Blalock vs. Kawann Short

Atlanta's rock along the offensive line in Justin Blalock gets his third tough test in a row with the uber-athletic Kawann Short. On the bright side, Short is the best defensive tackle that Blalock should see through the rest of the season. Blalock has been fighting back against foot injuries this season and should be a good matchup for the rotational Short.

That being said, without Star Lotulelei in, the question of just how effective Short will be should definitely be asked. Short has an explosive first step and knows how to use his hands effectively. But if Blalock is healthy and has the right amount of support, he could stonewall Short. If Short gets stonewalled, there's no real pass-rushing threat for the Panthers outside of blitzing.

Julio Jones vs. Josh Norman

Josh Norman is starting to come into his own as an NFL cornerback. However, he's not anywhere close to good enough to take on Julio Jones in a one-on-one situation. Atlanta should be trying to exploit this matchup all day. Norman will need help over the top from Thomas DeCoud, but that's the equivalent of getting help from Dashon Goldson at this point.

Both players aren't fast enough to be effective in coverage over the top. If the Falcons can hold up in their pass rush, there's no reason for Jones to not go off on the Panthers. He's too fast for any of their corners to really handle one-on-one and too physical for their safeties. If Jones doesn't get at least six catches for 100 yards and one touchdown, it would be surprising.

Falcons' X-Factor of the Week: Levine Toilolo

Carolina doesn't have the secondary to focus on the wide receivers exclusively. They have talented enough linebackers to neutralize the Falcons running backs. But if they decide to try and blitz with those linebackers like they have been all year, Atlanta should take advantage of it with short and intermediate routes to Levine Toilolo.

Toilolo has had a shot to have his breakout game for a while. And he had a breakout game as a blocker against the Buccaneers this past week, pancaking linebackers for most of the day. Now it's time for him to break out as a complete tight end. If he can get six targets on the day and catch five of them, he should be able to get at least 60 yards and a touchdown on this Carolina defense.

Prediction

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This should be a good week for the Atlanta Falcons. They have an extremely important matchup with the Panthers, as it could completely set the tone for the second half of the season. The Panthers don't have much healthy talent on their lines, and should the Falcons want to win, they can exploit that fact.

Atlanta's offense should be able to set the tone early with the running game and deep play-action passes. Forcing the linebackers to cheat up against the run, Matt Ryan can run his normal two-check calls. Basically, if there's a safety in the box, he'll call a pass. If there's not, he'll call the run.

On defense, it will all depend on the offense. Stopping the run is extremely important. But if the defense can stop the first two drives of the day and force Carolina to play from behind all game, Atlanta could wind up winning soundly. It will all depend on how well Atlanta can capture and keep the momentum.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 31, Carolina Panthers 24

All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.

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