Patriots vs. Colts: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

There should be no second-guessing: The Indianapolis Colts' matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday night will be Naptown's biggest game of the season. 

Not only does the game have massive implications on playoff positioning, but it could also be a game that makes or breaks an MVP run by either Andrew Luck or Tom Brady. The game is on Sunday Night Football, features two of the league's top teams and each team is coming off of a bye week. 

For a regular-season game, it doesn't get much bigger. 

With so much on the line, what are the keys for the Colts to pull out what would be somewhat of an upset win in Week 11? 

Offense: Stick With the Plan

Sometimes, the Colts have tried to get too cute when going up against high-quality opponents. Instead of game-planning for obvious strengths and weaknesses, the Colts have occasionally done the exact opposite of what most would expect them to do in an attempt to gain an early advantage in games. 

Take the Colts' loss to Philadelphia earlier this season, for example. Instead of attacking a weak secondary, the Colts ran the ball directly at the Eagles. While the strategy worked at first, the Colts were too slow to revert back to the passing game and attack the Eagles vertically. As a result, the passing game never quite got in rhythm and the team allowed the Eagles to come back and earn a victory. 

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

The team has learned since then, however, and has become the league's most pass-heavy team, per Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus. It makes sense, after all, with Andrew Luck at quarterback and a veritable smorgasbord of targets. 

When the Patriots come to town on Sunday night, the Colts must stick to what works: an explosive passing offense. That is what has gotten them to this point, and that's what will get them to a deep playoff run if that happens to be in their future. 

Yes, the Colts need to have used the bye week wisely, having some kind of wrinkles early in the game to throw New England off. The running game might be that wrinkle, considering the Patriots' 26th-ranked rush defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. That could help slow the New England pass rush early and allow the Colts to set the pace of the game if they can succeed.

But in the end, the Colts must be able to move the ball through the air against their rivals in order to take the victory. There's a fine line between utilizing wrinkles in the game plan and going away from your strengths as an offense. Against the Eagles, the Colts were unable to find that line. Against a Patriots team that is just as good, if not better, they will need to be better. 

Offense: Start Fast 

In some of the Colts' great upset wins over the last three years, they have overcome slow starts with ulcer-inducing comebacks. The Green Bay Packers win in 2012, for example, or the win over the eventual Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks last season. 

Since Tom Brady became quarterback in 2001, the Patriots have allowed just 11 fourth-quarter comebacks, per Pro Football Reference. It's safe to say that giving Brady and Bill Belichick a head start isn't exactly a favorable situation. 

The Colts let the Patriots get out to a 14-0 lead before the first quarter was halfway over in last year's playoff matchup and were forced to try to play catch up all game. 

It didn't work out. 

The Patriots are going to score points. If the Colts get behind early, it will allow New England to mix up their play-calling even more and wear the Colts defense down. The offense has to avoid early turnovers and put points on the board to keep the pressure on the Patriots to keep up, rather than the other way around.

Defense: As Gronk Goes, So Go the Patriots

While Tom Brady's status as a quarterback means he will get most of the MVP talk, some New England media has started a "Gronk for MVP" campaign that has some real validity to it:

Sure, a tight end would have to cure cancer and solve world hunger in order to actually win the MVP, but look at how much a healthy Gronkowski has changed the New England offense. Without him, Brady looked mediocre at best last season. To start this year, the Patriots looked mediocre as Gronkowski was rusty and fighting through lingering issues to start the year. 

Since Gronkowski got healthy, the Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut. 

Split	Comp. %	YPA	TD	INT	Rating	W-L
Weeks 1-4	59.12%	5.77	4	2	79.1	2-2
Weeks 5-9	67.51%	8.13	18	1	120.5	5-0

If the Colts want to beat the Patriots, they have to limit Gronkowski. They won't stop him, but they have to limit his effectiveness. That means shading multiple zone defenders over him in the middle of the field and not allowing him free releases off the line of scrimmage. It means shadowing him with two defenders in the red zone, where his impact is most felt. 

It's a pick-your-poison struggle, and it's a very difficult one for a defense who needs to blitz in order to manufacture a pass rush. But if they want to win, the Colts have to figure out some way to keep Gronkowski from owning the middle of the field.

Defense: Don't Totally Crumble

We know that Brady will get his. The Colts can attempt to limit him, but like Peyton Manning, even the best efforts will only work for so long before the points start coming. 

But can the Colts keep the Patriots from succeeding in other phases, namely the running game? That will be the key in this year's matchup. The Patriots have not been a good running team, ranking 31st in rushing DVOA. 

The Colts must keep them one-dimensional in order to have a shot at slowing them down. If the Patriots are able to run Jonas Gray down the Colts' throat like they did LeGarrette Blount last year, the Colts will be on their heels so often that 50 points will be a real possibility for New England. 

If they can't stop the run game, the pass rush will be slowed immensely, which will open everything up for the Patriots. 

Stopping the pass is the most important thing in the NFL, including in this game. The Colts could limit the Patriots to 25 total rushing yards and still give up 45 points. But the Colts have to stop at least one aspect of the Patriots offense in order to have a chance, and they have a much better shot at limiting the running game than they do the passing game. 

Make Tom Brady be one-dimensional, and maybe you can steal a couple of possessions from him.