San Francisco 49ers' Season Rests with Kaepernick's Arm Strength, Ball Placement

When you think about the brand of football the San Francisco 49ers have played during the Jim Harbaugh era, you think about running. You think about a lot of running, and you think about stuffing the run defensively. You think about exotic run formations and line shifts. You think about the read-option and all the confusion it brings.

Mostly, you think about running.

That’s who the 49ers are offensively. They’re a running, grinding team, an identity offensive coordinator Greg Roman has inexplicably strayed from too often this season.

But stay with me for a moment longer on this exercise of deep football soul-searching. Put your nose a little closer to the mirror. What else do you see? And what else has become even more apparent after the chaotic events of Sunday during an overtime win over the New Orleans Saints?

A running team that’s 5-4 and clawing for the playoffs without core defensive stars needs its quarterback and his laser arm now more than ever. A running identity is still present (or it should be), but during key moments Colin Kaepernick will be needed as that golden-armed savior down the stretch.

Kaepernick’s flirtation with fatal mistakes because of his two-faced playing style is tolerated and embraced. He was the difference Sunday when the 49ers leaned on his ability to zip throws into tight holes and loft balls into the open spaces of zone coverage while scrambling.

The focus following Sunday’s win that perhaps delayed the death of San Francisco’s season has rightfully been on Kaepernick’s miraculous fourth-down heave to wide receiver Michael Crabtree to set up the tying field goal and force overtime.

Sure, the throw was partially gifted by Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro and his gaffe in coverage. But when a cross-field missile travels 45 yards through the air after the quarterback had avoided pressure, he gets hero points.

The rest of Kaepernick’s afternoon looks mediocre on the surface. A game will have that sort of mild stench when the quarterback in question completes only 43.8 percent of his passes, a career single-game low.

But in truth the finger-wagging for that percentage should be directed at both the passer and his targets. Though he did have a poor second half along with the entire 49ers offense (completing only six of his 17 second-half pass attempts), Kaepernick was victimized by some exceptionally buttery fingers.

Four of those drops came from wide receiver Anquan Boldin during a highly uncharacteristic game. Over the previous two seasons Boldin had been targeted 294 times, dropping only 11 of those throws.

Kaepernick’s afternoon was far from perfect. But drops and the resulting poor completion percentage could skew the perception of his performance.

The reality is Kaepernick made throws with velocity, touch and precision ball placement—the sort of throws that need to keep coming with three more divisional games still remaining.

Let’s look beyond that 51-yard moonshot to Crabtree, rewinding to the second quarter and the 49ers’ fourth drive. Facing 2nd-and-12 they were on the New Orleans 48-yard line. Kaepernick was in shotgun with an empty backfield and four receivers spread out, one of which was Boldin (you're about to notice his name a lot because he was targeted 14 times) in the slot to his left.

Kaepernick released the ball quickly throughout the game after being sacked a painful 14 times over the previous two weeks. Combined with the whistling bullets he throws, his fast release led to a feeling of rapid-fire bombardment at times in the first half, and a rhythm that kept Saints defenders off balance.

That was all evident on this play, when only 1.86 seconds passed between the time Kaepernick received the snap and when its flight toward Boldin started. Boldin ran a post route that he broke off about 10 yards downfield. His assignment was to find the open area in zone coverage beyond the linebacker and in front of the safety.

He did his job, and now Kaepernick’s came with a much higher degree of difficulty. His throw needed enough velocity to get past the linebacker and still have accurate placement to land in front of the crashing safety so he didn’t have a play on the ball.

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The safety and linebacker were collapsing around the area Kaepernick was targeting. That’s when his nearly unmatched arm strength was showcased with a line drive in the perfect spot for a 23-yard completion. No, the only spot.

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That set up another pinpoint throw to Boldin two plays later. But it was also an entirely different throw, this time a high-arching toss by Kaepernick to a space only his receiver had access to deep downfield.

Kaepernick took a shot at the end zone from the Saints 15-yard line. He targeted Boldin on a fade, relying on the receiver's wide frame to outmuscle cornerback Keenan Lewis.

Boldin did his part on the other end again, but once more he finished what Kaepernick started. This ball needed to arch through the air to Boldin’s back shoulder, where it would either be a touchdown or an incompletion. Anything left short risked an interception.

Kaepernick threw it from the 20-yard line at the far hash with what seemed like a casual wrist flick. So the true distance (including the dropback and cross-field throw) was actually further for this bucket-drop touchdown than the 15 yards advertised.

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On the next drive there was a similar throw with the same target, though this one had to travel much further.

From his own 29-yard line Kaepernick looked to Boldin yet again. Starting from the slot to the quarterback’s right he ran a wheel route on a well-designed play to create space off a natural pick. Boldin went behind a slant run by Crabtree, a route that went directly into the path of Saints cornerback Corey White.

Space was then created with White a half step behind Boldin already. But it was only a sliver of separation, and Kaepernick still faced the challenge of lofting a ball from the far hash (again) that fit between White and the sideline, all while putting it in a location only Boldin could access (again).

Done, and this time the ball sailed 28 yards for another cushy landing.

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One of Kaepernick’s best throws of the game shows up in the box score as just another dud incompletion. It could have been a long touchdown had Boldin been able to make the easy catch.

The 49ers needed a deep connection on 3rd-and-15 during a drive that started with a sack and nine-yard loss. Everyone in the stadium—no, the country and known universe—knew another long chuck was coming, and getting it off wasn’t made easier by a poor snap.

Boldin was lined up wide to Kaepernick’s left this time. A deep connection was even more difficult with White opposite him again, giving a 10-yard cushion. In theory (and hopefully) the cornerback would have time to break on any route while gladly conceding a shallow completion. In theory.

Boldin’s route cut inside about 15 yards downfield. White sprinted immediately when Kaepernick cocked back, aiming to undercut the route. But time often isn’t a luxury you have with Kaepernick’s fastball.

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The ball cleared White’s hand after a desperate dive, his last resort. Kaepernick had smashed through another cramped throwing window. But this time he wasn’t rewarded, as the throw bounced off Boldin’s hands (again).

Kaepernick has the third-highest percentage of yards through the air among quarterbacks who have taken at least 50 percent of their team’s dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

There are times when he makes decisions that lead to instant cringes and hiding under the nearest blanket. But there are even more times when danger is danced with and beaten. Kaepernick has aired it out on his throws so often that 61.7 percent of his yardage has been on the strength of his arm and not yards after the catch. Yet he's thrown only five interceptions (with six interception-free games).

It usually doesn’t take long in any game to see Kaepernick’s battle with that danger as he manages chaos. His receivers haven’t been able to create a lot of separation downfield, making most throws highly contested.

So Kaepernick will have to keep jamming balls through narrow windows in key situations, supporting both a hopefully chugging running game and a defense playing the rest of the season without middle linebacker Patrick Willis.

Making those critical throws in key situations as he did Sunday could be what stands between sneaking into the playoffs and a failed season. The margin for error now is exceedingly thin.