Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Chicago Bears are still searching for their first home win of the season and will look to break a three-game skid when they host the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North matchup on Sunday.

The Bears have been terrible at home over the past two seasons, going 5-6 straight up but just 1-9-1 against the spread under second-year head coach Marc Trestman.

Point spread: Bears opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick via Odds Shark computer: 20.2-14.4 Vikings

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings have been a better team than Chicago this year, at least staying competitive in covering the spread in their past three games. Two of those resulted in wins, which is one more than the Bears have in their last six games.

With Adrian Peterson sidelined, the Vikings have been building for the future with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the new cornerstone of the franchise. Bridgewater has been solid during the team’s two-game winning streak, throwing two touchdowns with no interceptions after throwing five picks in his previous two games, both losses.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

What more can you say about Chicago that has not already been said after this team surrendered 50-plus points in consecutive road losses to the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, becoming just the second team in NFL history to accomplish that embarrassing feat?

The bottom line, though, is the Bears still have talented players, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Granted, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has looked lousy during the team’s losing streak, but he won't need to generate too many points against an offensively challenged Minnesota team that had scored less than 20 points in four straight games before beating the Washington Redskins 29-26.

Smart Pick

While it may seem wise to keep fading the Bears based on their recent struggles, they are small favorites in this spot against an NFC North rival, and defensive end Jared Allen will be going against his former team for the first time. If they are going to be motivated for any game against a winnable divisional opponent, this is the one.

As bad as Chicago has played lately, this team has gone 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite of three points or less. That isn’t necessarily a ringing endorsement, but two of those wins came against NFC North foes, including a 39-10 rout of the Vikings. Look for the Bears to put the past few weeks behind them and come up with a huge home win.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games when playing Chicago
• The total has gone over in four of Chicago's last six games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury and line-move updates.