Should Braves Look to Trade Justin Upton, Jason Heyward Before It's Too Late?

Never mind the Atlanta Braves trading Justin Upton or Jason Heyward.

Here's a much bolder idea: the Braves trading Upton and Heyward.

For now, the Braves don't appear set on doing that. The rumor mill has had plenty to say about Atlanta's 27-year-old left fielder and and 25-year-old right fielder, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says the Braves are more in listening mode than active-shopping mode.

Or, as new Braves President of Baseball Operations John Hart put it to Mark Bowman of MLB.com: "We are coming in with the idea that we don't have to trade anybody. We haven't made a call saying, 'Are you interested in ...' regarding anybody. We've received calls and we haven't had any conversations. We are not looking to push anybody."

But there's the club's official stance, and there's what could be its realistic stance.

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Bowman offered some thoughts on that. He granted that Upton, Heyward and slugging catcher Evan Gattis are easily the Braves' most attractive trade chips and that the club "might eventually be tempted" to trade two of the three.

The Braves don't need to, of course, and that's something we'll get into in a bit. But it's arguably the best thing they can do in their current situation:

• Coming off a disappointing 79-83 record in 2014.
• Some big needs on the major league roster.
• No easy in-house answers for those needs in a depleted farm system.
• Little payroll flexibility with which to play on the open market.
• Needing to be mindful of arranging a team worthy of their new ballpark in 2017.

Even if it's less pressing at the moment, that last point needs to be on the Braves' mind just as much as the other four in regard to Upton and Heyward. With both slated for free agency after 2015, the only way the Braves will still have them in 2017 is if they can hammer out big-money extensions.

And that may be a long shot. The Braves already have quite a few big-money contracts on their hands, and it's essentially a given that neither Upton nor Heyward would accept a penny less than market value with youth and talent working for them with free agency so close.

In fact, it already sounds like Heyward's mind is made up. From Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal:

It would be understandable if Upton was operating on the same wavelength. If he is, then the Braves are facing a situation where they're only going to get ideal returns for Upton and Heyward if they act soon.

That each only has one year of control left means there's a limit to how much value they have on the trade market. But with right-handed power in short supply, Upton is unquestionably an attractive asset. Heyward's solid hitting, good baserunning and superb defense, meanwhile, make him arguably the game's best right fielder.

Maybe the Braves wouldn't get the world for Upton and Heyward thanks to their lack of controllability, but they'd get a lot. Take that with all the other elements of their current situation, and dealing the two of this winter them makes sense from a rebuilding perspective.

OK, fine. You got me. The word "rebuilding" is where the idea hits a snag. A 79-83 record isn't good, but it's not a record that signals a full rebuild is needed.

So let's consider a revised question: Can the Braves rebuild by dealing Upton and Heyward without also punting on 2015?

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At first glance, the answer is no.

By FanGraphs WAR, Upton and Heyward were two of the Braves' five best players in 2014. By OPS+, a park- and league-adjusted version of OPS, they were two of only four above-average hitters the Braves had in their regular lineup.

Player	POS	WAR
Jason Heyward	RF	5.1
Julio Teheran	SP	4.3
Freddie Freeman	1B	4.2
Justin Upton	LF	3.9
Alex Wood	SP	3.9

And yeah, given that the Braves just finished 14th in the National League in runs, ditching half the good hitters they had seems awfully counterintuitive.

But the real question is if the Braves can keep Upton and Heyward and build a contending team around them for 2015. That won't be easy, as they'll be severely limited in team-building assets if they keep the two of them.

Gattis could be used to acquire talent in a trade, but his value doesn't come close to measuring up to that of Upton or Heyward. He may have right-handed thump and four years of club control left, but he's also older at 28 and comes with durability and defense question marks.

Meanwhile, on the financial front, MLB Trade Rumors has Atlanta's 2015 payroll projected at a little over $101 million. Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, that's only about $11 million off from their franchise-record $112 million Opening Day payroll in 2014.

And that's with Atlanta's roster far from complete. With Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the Braves need at least two starting pitchers. They also need some bench upgrades, which would ideally include a platoon partner for center fielder B.J. Upton.

Gattis as a trade asset and $10-11 million in payroll space isn't enough to cover these needs. The Braves would have to cut corners just to build a respectable final product, and "respectable" likely wouldn't cut it in an NL East that, as Hart admitted to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, is getting better.

On these notes, let's ask yet another question: How good could the Braves get if they traded Upton and Heyward?

Potentially...pretty good, actually.

For beginners, this tweet from David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is an indication the Braves could take care of their starting pitching needs by dealing Upton and Heyward:

O'Brien went on to tweet that he'd expect them to do so by dealing either Gattis or an outfielder. Change that to two outfielders, and you get two starting pitchers.

What kind of starting pitchers? Well, Jon Heyman has speculated that the Seattle Mariners could deal for Upton, who they tried to acquire two years ago. It so happens they have Taijuan Walker, James Paxton or Roenis Elias to offer. The San Diego Padres—who Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says are listening on Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner—are another possible match.

Other possible landing spots for Heyward include right field-needy teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles if they can't re-sign Nick Markakis. The Cardinals and Orioles have some talented young arms, and Texas' glut of young middle infielders could be a doorway to a three- or four-team trade.

It's therefore reasonably plausible the Braves could use Upton and Heyward to round out their rotation with two very good pitchers. And while two big holes would be opened up elsewhere, the Braves would be able to patch them.

The in-house ripple effect would presumably involve Gattis moving to either left or right field and Christian Bethancourt becoming Atlanta's everyday catcher. That wouldn't completely make up for the losses of Upton and Heyward, but it would mitigate them somewhat.

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press/Associated Press

In Gattis, the Braves would still have some right-handed thump in their outfield. In Bethancourt, they'd be making up for the loss of Heyward's plus right field defense with plus catcher defense. As good as Heyward is, that's not a bad swap in light of the extreme value of catcher defense.

Then there's how dealing Upton and Heyward would clear their 2015 salaries. That's $14.5 million for Upton and $8.3 million for Heyward, or $22.8 million total.

Assuming they were to be dealt for younger and, therefore, cheaper starting pitchers, the Braves would find themselves going from around $10-11 million in payroll flexibility to potentially close to $30 million in payroll flexibility.

That's plenty of money to invest in a bat or two, including any number of outfielders. Nelson Cruz. Melky Cabrera. Nick Markakis. Alex Rios. Maybe even Yasmani Tomas, the very powerful 23-year-old righty-swinging Cuban outfielder.

Trading Upton and Heyward would be bold, no doubt about it. But it's the best means the Braves have to add some much-needed pieces to their starting rotation, and it would allow for a new-look lineup through new roles for Gattis and Bethancourt and financial flexibility to have some fun on the open market.

Again, this is all just an idea. Realistically, the smart money is on the Braves playing it safe by dealing Gattis or on only being so bold as to deal Upton or Heyward instead of both.

It doesn't appear to be out of the question that both could be moved, however. And given where they are and where they could go, it makes a surprising amount of sense for the Braves.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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