NFL Picks Week 11: Top Underdog Odds, Moneyline Advice and Predictions
Another Thursday night, another football game that will have fans dead set on a weekend pick-me-up of (hopefully) compelling NFL action.
The Miami Dolphins defeated the Buffalo Bills 22-9 in a drab, dour game on Thursday Night Football, which hasn't had much success in displaying compelling matchups. The average margin of victory in these midweek NFL games this season is 18.2 points.
Thank goodness for NFL Sunday, which features several compelling contests, including a showdown between Andrew Luck and Tom Brady and what should be a nasty rivalry game between two desperate (although for somewhat different reasons) squads in the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders.
If this action isn't enough, there is always the chance to become one of those enterprising football fanatics who choose to take a look at each week's odds and moneylines and attempt to make an extra bit of scratch.
Here is what's left of the Week 11 slate, complete with spreads, moneylines and game predictions.
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| Time (ET) | Away | Home | Moneyline | Prediction |
| 1 p.m. | Houston Texans | Cleveland Browns (-3) | HOU +150, CLE -170 | CLE 21-17 HOU |
| 1 p.m. | Atlanta Falcons (Ev) | Carolina Panthers (Ev) | ATL +108, CAR -128 | CAR 24-20 ATL |
| 1 p.m. | Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears (-2.5) | MIN +140, CHI -181 | CHI 21-20 MIN |
| 1 p.m. | Cincinnati Bengals | New Orleans Saints (-8) | CIN +270, NO -330 | NO 31-20 CIN |
| 1 p.m. | Denver Broncos (-10) | St. Louis Rams | DEN -460, STL +365 | DEN 38-24 STL |
| 1 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks | Kansas City Chiefs (-1) | SEA +115, KC -135 | SEA 21-17 KC |
| 1 p.m. | San Francisco 49ers (-4) | New York Giants | SF -200, NYG +170 | SF 27-21 NYG |
| 1 p.m. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins (-8.5) | TB +280, WAS -340 | WAS 28-20 TB |
| 4:05 p.m. | Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers (-11.5) | OAK +450, SD -600 | SD 31-OAK 24 |
| 4:25 p.m. | Detroit Lions (Ev) | Arizona Cardinals (Ev) | DET +108, AZ -128 | DET 20-14 AZ |
| 4:25 p.m. | Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay Packers (-7) | PHI +210, GB -250 | GB 34-31 PHI |
| 8:30 p.m. | New England Patriots | Indianapolis Colts (-3) | NE +135, IND -155 | NE 28-24 IND |
| 8:30 p.m. | Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) | Tennessee Titans | PIT -265, TEN +225 | PIT 23-20 TEN |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Friday, Nov. 14.
Moneyline Tip
Detroit Takes Advantage of Palmer-less Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals own the best record in the NFL heading in to Week 11, but whatever lofty aspirations the organization held may have to be scaled back a bit now that Carson Palmer is out for the season with a torn ACL.
The Lions are slight underdogs at plus-108 in the moneyline, but the Cardinals still have the edge in the spread in some books, per Odds Shark. This game is tough to pick, but count on the Lions to pull off a minor upset on the road in Week 11.
Drew Stanton will be leading the Cards in Palmer's stead, just as he did when Palmer was out with a shoulder injury in Weeks 2, 3 and 5. Sports Illustrated's Peter King noted the Cards fared pretty well under his command:
The Detroit Lions defense serves as his welcome-back party, and this aggressive unit should disrupt the Cards attack and allow Matthew Stafford and company enough opportunities to snatch a narrow road victory.
Quarterbacks have thrown just 10 touchdowns against 10 interceptions for a 79.7 quarterback rating against the Lions this season, per ESPN.com. Stanton, who becomes a fine example of the Peter Principle any time he's promoted to starting quarterback, isn't likely to break that trend.
He has a palatable 81.6 rating in 2014, and he has done it against teams with tough pass defenses such as the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos. Dig a little bit deeper, and the numbers don't bode well for this weekend.
Stanton's production has been adequate thanks to some big plays, but he's struggled with intermediate throws. Stanton, a former Lion, is just 27 of 56 for 288 yards on passes thrown between one and 20 yards downfield, per ESPN.com. All three of his touchdown passes have come on big throws to whizz-bang wideout John Brown, but he may find it tough to make long-distance connections this week.
Detroit's pass rush, led by Ezekiel Ansah (5.5 sacks) and Ndamukong Suh (4.5 sacks), should limit Stanton's ability to step up in the pocket and let routes develop downfield. Indeed, the Lions have allowed just five pass plays of 25 yards or more this season.
Still, Brown doesn't expect the offense to have a tough time transitioning from Palmer to Stanton once again.
"The balls come out the same and everything to me,” Brown said, via Kyle Odegard of AZCardinals.com. “It’s no difference to me. I love both of those guys. They make plays happen."
To be fair, Stanton hasn't thrown a pick this year and the Cards can rely on Andre Ellington to spearhead a decent enough rushing attack, but they will likely struggle to keep up with the Lions offense, which could be coming together quite nicely down the stretch.
The Lions have several things going for them on offense this week, but these two might be the most important: Stafford's rare physiology that has ice water running through his veins and an effective Calvin Johnson.
Stafford showed off his clutch genes in a 20-16 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 10.
Down by three with under a minute to go in the contest, Stafford looked off a double-teamed Johnson, rolled out to his left and sidearmed an 11-yard dart to running back Theo Riddick in the back of the end zone for the late victory.
Bleacher Report's Michael Schottey and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport praised Stafford after the play:
"Last Drive Matt Stafford >>>>>(infinity)>>>>>>All other iterations of Matt Stafford
— Michael Schottey (@Schottey) November 9, 2014"
It was the Lions' third fourth-quarter comeback win in a row, which bodes well for them in what should be a close game this week.
Johnson notched seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown upon return from an ankle injury in Week 10. His brilliant 49-yard touchdown catch was proof positive that he's nearly impossible to contain when feeling healthy, and it might've been responsible for the extra attention on the play featuring Stafford's late heroics.
It's clear he's the focal point of the offense when available, which is a point not lost on CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora:
The Cardinals defense, led by free safety Rashad Johnson and cornerback Patrick Peterson, is as tough a group as they come, allowing just 18.9 points per game this season.
Even if Peterson manages to take Johnson out of the game, quite often a dubious proposition, Stafford should be able to find Golden Tate on the other side of the field. The former Seattle Seahawk came into his own during Johnson's spell on the sidelines. He has 708 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his last six games.
To make matters tougher for the Cardinals secondary, the Lions tight end unit, which has left much to be desired this season, should be all systems go on Sunday. Joseph Fauria, Brandon Pettigrew and rookie Eric Ebron are all healthy this week, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free-Press.
I'm kind of giddy," Fauria said, via Birkett. "It's like we talked a big game in the beginning, and our stats or our production might not have shown up on paper as much. But we're a good, solid room, and this is the second half of the season (and it) should be ours for the taking."
Tight end production is no guarantee, however, considering what the Lions have gotten from that triumvirate so far this season.
| Ebron | 6 | 10 | 103 | 10.3 | 1 | 20 |
| Pettigrew | 8 | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 | 14 |
| Fauria | 3 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 | 6 |
The Lions have yet to decide whether or not running back Reggie Bush will play on Sunday due to lingering injuries, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. however, Joique Bell can definitely shoulder the load and Riddick has emerged as a nice checkdown option out of the backfield.
The Cardinals lost their veteran talisman in Palmer, and the Lions are finally getting healthy on offense.. This one has all the fixings for a nice road upset.
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