Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns will be looking to knock the Cincinnati Bengals out of first place in the AFC North when they meet in a key divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The Browns and Bengals have both won their last two games, but Cleveland will be looking to break a 17-game road losing streak against AFC North opponents, going 1-4 against the spread in its past five vs. divisional foes.

Point spread: Bengals opened as six-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.9-21.4 Bengals

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns have gone 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Cincinnati, including 3-1-1 vs. the line in the past five. This is a much different Cleveland team than in years past, too, figuring out ways to grind out wins like they did last week with a 22-17 home victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 6.5-point favorite.

The old Browns teams would have found a way to lose to the Buccaneers, but they were able to do just enough to get the win. Bettors may have thought Cleveland would unravel following a loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars three weeks ago. However, the Browns have gone the other way and are now 4-1 straight up and 2-2-1 ATS in their past five games.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals are an impressive 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 home games, with their 33-23 home win over Jacksonville last week falling right on the number. They saw a 26-10 lead early in the fourth quarter shrink to 26-23 about halfway through before rookie running back Jeremy Hill rumbled 60 yards for a touchdown to close out the Jaguars.

Hill carried the ball 24 times for a career-high 154 yards and scored twice with fellow running back Giovani Bernard sitting out due to a hip injury. If Hill continues to get more playing time in place of Bernard, Cincinnati could be even more dangerous offensively—especially with star wide receiver A.J. Green back from a toe injury.

Smart Pick

The Bengals have been able to get back on track over the last couple weeks following a rough 0-2-1 stretch, and that has helped build their confidence back up to where it was before they were crushed by the New England Patriots about a month ago. Cincinnati remains one of the best teams in not just the AFC, but also the NFL, whereas Cleveland is just starting to see what winning is all about.

The Browns have been a great story this year, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against AFC North opponents, while the Bengals are 5-0 vs. the line in their past five hosting divisional foes. Look for Cincy to take it to Cleveland in the battle of Ohio and win this one by double digits.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
• Cincinnati is 13-1-1 SU in its last 15 games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.