Handicapping The 2010 NBA Playoffs

The 2010 NBA Playoffs are just nine months away, but why should you have to wait until next April to find out which teams will be playing?

It would be laughably foolish to think that anyone could correctly predict all sixteen playoff teams now, and even more so the seeding, but we can probably get a good idea now.

By my calculations, there are 12 teams that are locks for the playoffs, while I can only think of three that have no chance. That leaves us with 15 teams competing for just four spots.

Western Conference

As near as I can see, five Western Conference teams should be locks for the playoffs, while three of them would do well to make May reservations for the golf course.

Based on the level of competition this year, I would expect a team to need 46 wins (give or take a few) to earn a playoff spot. Let's consider each team, taking into account how many wins they would need from their 2009 total to reach 46.

Los Angeles Lakers (-21 wins)

The Lakers lost Trevor Ariza from a championship squad, but gained Ron Artest. I don't know that Artest is a huge upgrade from Ariza (he may even cost them a couple wins this year), but I think it's safe to say that this team isn't giving up 21 wins next year.

Denver Nuggets (-8 wins)

The only significant loss for the Nuggets was Dantay Jones. They didn't add anyone to offset him, so I see them losing a few more this year. Not enough to take them out of the playoff hunt, though.

San Antonio Spurs (-8 wins)

The Spurs made some big pickups this summer in Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson. Will it be enough to balance out the rapid aging of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili? My guess is no, but there's no way they miss the playoffs this year.

Portland Trail Blazers (-8 wins)

The Blazers' young core keeps getting better, and adding Andre Miller can only help things. This team looks to improve from their 54 wins last year.

Dallas Mavericks (-4 wins)

Adding Drew Gooden and Shawn Marion to an already solid team bodes well for Dallas. This is another team that figures to win a few more than last year.

Utah Jazz (-2 wins)

The Jazz are a tough team to figure out. They've kept everyone from a mediocre team, but with other teams declining, they figure to make the playoffs by default. A possible trade of Carlos Boozer could be big for this team.

Phoenix Suns (0 wins)

The Suns fall into the same category as the Jazz - not good enough to be a contender, but not bad enough to fall out of the top eight. Barring a tremendous run from one of the bottom feeders, expect to see Phoenix in the playoffs again.

New Orleans Hornets (-3 wins)

New Orleans is getting ready to shift into full—fledged cost—cutting mode. Without any help for Chris Paul, expect to see them battling for the eighth seed but coming up just short at the end.

Houston Rockets (-7 wins)

No Yao, no McGrady, and no Artest. Call me crazy, but I'm guessing no playoffs, either.

Golden State Warriors (+15 wins)

The Warriors are an interesting bunch. Some days, they look like contenders, and other days, they look like also—rans. They have an exciting bunch of players, but in the end, I don't see them adding 15 more wins to their total this year.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+23 wins)

The Thunder have an exciting young nucleus that figure to do big things in the near future. That said, I didn't see much from the 2009 squad that showed me that they can add 23 wins to this year's total. Maybe in 2011, team.

LA Clippers (+27 wins)

Here's a team that could turn things around. They add Blake Griffin and dump Zach Randolph and figure to avoid injuries this year. If they play to their potential, this could be a playoff team.

Memphis Grizzlies (+22 wins)

They have a lot of young talent, sure, but any team with Zach Randolph on it is a virtual lock to implode at some point during the season. Don't expect much from Memphis this year.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+22 wins)

They're building for the future. Just ask them. Unfortunately, there's no chance the future is now in Minnesota, not even with Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio (assuming he even plays for them).

Sacramento Kings (+29 wins)

Forget you even saw this. Let's just move along.

Seeding prediction:

1. Los Angeles Lakers                                                                                        2. Portland Trail Blazers                                                                                      3. Dallas Mavericks                                                                                           4. Denver Nuggets                                                                                            5. San Antonio Spurs                                                                                         6. Utah Jazz                                                                                                    7. Phoenix Suns                                                                                                8. Los Angeles Clippers                                                                                      9. New Orleans Hornets
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Houston Rockets
13. Memphis Grizzlies
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Sacramento Kings

Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference is a bit trickier, with nearly every team in the conference being on the bubble. In the end, I went with 38 wins as a cutoff, giving us seven teams as locks and only one team with no chance to qualify.

Cleveland Cavaliers (-28 wins)

Adding Shaq was, in my opinion, a huge mistake, but he's not going to cost the Cavs 28 wins. Cleveland is still a playoff team, and probably a top—three team, at that.

Boston Celtics (-24 wins)

Adding Rasheed Wallace makes the Celtics a real title threat again. Of course, it remains to be seen how sturdy Kevin Garnett's knees are, but I still feel good about this being a playoff team.

Orlando Magic (-21 wins)

The Magic made a lot of moves this summer, but I think the net result keeps them about even with last year. 59 wins is good for a playoff spot in anyone's book, I should think.

Atlanta Hawks (-9 wins)

This is pretty much the same team from last year, which is a good thing, as far as the Hawks are concerned. No need to rock the boat for now.

Miami Heat (-5 wins)

Not much new to report from South Beach...unless Boozer or Lamar Odom ends up with the Heat. If either of them do, Miami is a dangerous team. Even if they don't, though, I don't see them slipping below 38 wins.

Philadelphia 76ers (-3 wins)

Don't be surprised if Philly ends up missing Andre Miller more than they think. Without him, and with Elton Brand slowing things up again, this is a team with mediocrity written all over it.

Chicago Bulls (-3 wins)

Chicago stands to suffer a few growing pains this season. They did wonderfully last year against Boston, but I don't think you can count on them to repeat the performance. Of course, I don't see a sub-38 win season in their future, either.

Detroit Pistons (-1 win)

Detroit loses Rasheed Wallace but gains Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. I think we can expect to see them back in top form again this year. The Pistons are a shoe in for the playoffs.

Indiana Pacers (+3 wins)

The Pacers are still struggling to find their identity after the 2004 brawl that crippled their franchise. They'll probably keep improving, incrementally, but not enough to crack the top eight this year.

Charlotte Bobcats (+4 wins)

Charlotte is a trendy playoff pick this year, but they didn't show me anything last year that showed much improvement. They probably need a few more years to work out the kinks.

Milwaukee Bucks (+4 wins)

Milwaukee seems more concerned about the bottom line than about being competitive at this point. Just ask Mo Williams, Charlie Villanueva, and Richard Jefferson. If the team could deal Michael Redd, they would.

Toronto Raptors (+5 wins)

Here's the big question: is the swap of Shawn Marion for Hedo Turkoglu enough to net the Raptors an extra five wins? I expect them to come close, but probably just miss it.

New Jersey Nets (+4 wins)

The Nets are in the same boat as the Raptors, I think. Are Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee going to be enough to offset the loss of Vince Carter? Even if they are, I doubt they'll be enough to add four more wins.

New York Knicks (+6 wins)

They're waiting for 2010. You know it. I know it. Let's move on.

Washington Wizards (+19 wins)

Injuries crippled this team last year, but with the talent they have, it's hard to count the team out. Add that to the fact that they play in the East, and you've got yourself a near—bankable playoff team.

Predictions:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers                                                                                        2. Orlando Magic                                                                                              3. Boston Celtics                                                                                              4. Detroit Pistons                                                                                              5. Atlanta Hawks                                                                                              6. Washington Wizards                                                                                      7. Miami Heat                                                                                                    8.ChicagoBulls                                                                                                                9. Toronto Raptors
10. New Jersey Nets
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Charlotte Bobcats
13. Indiana Pacers
14. New York Knicks
15. Milwaukee Bucks